The Royals started the season 2-4, thanks to tough series losses to the Minnesota Twins and the Baltimore Orioles, two playoff teams from a season ago. What made the series losses challenging wasn’t just the fact that the Royals lost both, but how they lost them.
The Royals were in striking distance of winning the first two games against the Twins at Kauffman Stadium in the Opening homestand of the year. They also blew two games against the Orioles in the final innings, as Baltimore earned walk-off victories in games 1 and 3 of the Royals’ first road series of the 2024 season.
The Royals could’ve been 4-2 or 6-0 if all the chips had fallen right against the Twins and Orioles.
Thus, expectations were high for the Royals’ four-game series against the White Sox.
It was a series in which the Royals were favored in every game, and they were going against a White Sox team that was predicted to finish below the Royals in nearly every projection system. It would be interesting to see how Kansas City would respond in this four-game set, especially with the Houston Astros looming to finish the homestand.
The Royals responded positively and took care of business from Thursday evening to Sunday afternoon, sweeping the White Sox, their first four-game sweep of an opponent since 2021.
The Royals now sit at 6-4 for the year, the first time they’ve been above .500 past the first series of the year in nearly two seasons. As a result, Royals fans are getting excited here in the KC Metro and all over.
Granted, Royals fans have been here before recently. After all, in 2021, the Royals had a winning month in April, only to see them fall back to earth in May and June and eventually finish 74-88 for the season.
Will that happen again in 2024? Or are the Royals building something special for not just this season but beyond as well?
It’s still early, and there are still concerns, but there’s a lot to like about this Royals team’s outlook, especially after their four straight wins against the South Siders.
The Royals Winning With Starting Pitching and Timely Hitting
GM JJ Picollo emphasized that improving the pitching, especially starting pitching, was a priority this offseason.
As a result, the Royals acquired Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha via free agency. They also had an open competition for the fifth spot in the rotation this spring. This resulted in Alec Marsh earning the final starting pitching spot, Jordan Lyles being regulated to the bullpen, and Daniel Lynch being demoted to Omaha.
Picollo and manager Matt Quatraro’s moves have paid off thus far. Early on this season, the Royals sport one of the best rotations in baseball. According to Fangraphs, they lead the league in many categories, including ERA, WHIP, and H/9.
While Wacha and Lugo have had a positive start to this season in their first couple of outings, the Royals have also seen significant gains from their developed pitching products.
Cole Ragans continues to be an “ace” of the league. Brady Singer has channeled his 2022 self, thanks to the addition of a four-seamer. Lastly, though he wasn’t as sharp today, Marsh has shown he can be a starter at the Major League level.
Wacha, Lugo, and Ragans starting the year strong isn’t surprising. Singer and Marsh doing well, though, is, especially considering how rough things were for them overall in 2023.
A big reason for the unit’s solid performance is the group’s overall chemistry, especially when it comes to working together. Pitching coach Brian Sweeney recently mentioned how the group constantly collaborates and works together, which has had a profound impact on the group, especially Ragans, Singer, and Marsh.
The unit is not only getting the best out of themselves individually thus far in 2024, but they are also encouraging the best out of one another. Some of the best rotations in baseball have this kind of chemistry and collaboration. The fact that the Royals are showing this so early in the year bodes well for this group’s outlook in 2024, as long as they stay healthy.
The group hasn’t been as impressive on the hitting end, but they are still productive and turning heads in the process.
Going into Sunday’s game, the Royals ranked 12th in average, 11th in OPS, and 14th in runs scored, which is above the middle of the pack. They also rank 18th in OBP, slightly below the league average. On the flip side, the Royals rank 3rd in the league in home runs and 8th in stolen bases.
Bombs and speed. That’s the MO of the 2024 Kansas City Royals offense, and on Sunday afternoon, MJ Melendez continued to reinforce that as his two-run HR put the Royals up for good in the series finale against Chicago.
For the year, MJ and Maikel Garcia are tied for the team lead in HR with three each (remember, Garcia had four ALL OF LAST YEAR). Bobby Witt, Jr., Salvy, and Nelson Velazquez each have two. Lastly, Kyle Isbel and Hunter Renfroe both have one, with Renfroe’s first coming this afternoon (which helped the Royals get back into the game against Chicago’s Garrett Crochet).
Royals fans knew about the speed on this roster, especially with Maikel, Witt, and Dairon Blanco on the Opening Day roster (Blanco has four stolen bases this year despite only getting one plate appearance this year). The power, though, has been a welcomed surprise, especially from guys like Garcia and Velazquez, whom Royals fans were hoping for steps forward offensively in 2024.
Even more remarkable about the Royals offense is that they’re doing this despite not getting any power contribution from Vinnie Pasquantino, who’s slugging .121 this year, and Michael Massey, who’s currently on a rehab assignment in Northwest Arkansas.
If Vinnie can get back to form, and if Massey can follow Maikel and Nelson’s leads once the second baseman makes his 2024 MLB debut, then this Royals offense could be scary not just this year but beyond.
Bullpen Getting Better, But Help Still Needed
The Royals bullpen has been the subject of most, if not all, of the Royals fans’ frustrations to begin the season. That was especially true after their two-blown saves against the Orioles.
However, things are improving in Kansas City’s bullpen, especially with James McArthur getting the looks in the ninth instead of Will Smith, who was acquired in free agency.
McArthur continues to dominate on a CSW end, posting a 53% CSW% and a 50% whiff rate against the White Sox today. Furthermore, according to Baseball Savant, he also ranks in the 99th percentile in chase rate, 96th percentile in whiff rate, and 88th percentile in GB percentage. Those are all characteristics of a reliever who can handle high-leverage situations, especially in the ninth.
McArthur isn’t the only reliever who demonstrated some growth in this series.
John Schreiber has become a middle-inning specialist who can induce groundballs and escape jams. According to Baseball Savant, Schreiber’s xBA allowed ranks in the 85th percentile, and his GB percentage ranks in the 92nd percentile. Being able to succeed in those categories is precisely why the Royals were willing to part with pitching prospect David Sandlin this offseason.
Additionally, Angel Zerpa has turned into a left-handed specialist who can come in the late innings and put out fires (as he did today). Chris Stratton is also slowly coming into form after a rough start. On Saturday, he pitched a clean inning against the White Sox, earning his first save of the year.
The only reliever that remains a concern is Smith, who looked better in the White Sox series but still not good enough to lock down the ninth inning. Smith saw setup duty today against Chicago and posted a 33% CSW% but saw massive declines in his four-seam (-2.1 MPH), curveball (-2.6 MPH), and changeup (-1.9 MPH) velocities.
It will be interesting to see how long Smith gets high-leverage opportunities if the velocities don’t increase over the year.
The Royals seem to be considering a long-term plan for the bullpen in case Smith and anyone else do not improve. Shortly after the game, the Royals announced a trade for Pirates reliever
Selby had mixed results with the Pirates in his MLB debut in 2023.
In 21 games and 24 IP, he posted a 9.00 ERA and 1.83 WHIP. He struggled primarily with walks (13.2% BB%) and home runs allowed (21.1% HR/FB%) with the Pirates last year. He averages 96.6 MPH on his fastball and shows good movement and stuff on his slider and curveball.
It’s possible that Selby could thrive in Kansas City much like McArthur did after coming over from the Phillies organization last year.
According to Fangraphs, the Royals relievers rank last in Stuff+, which correlates with their 23rd ERA, 26th WHIP, 26th K/9, and 25th BB/9. If the Royals want to improve in those categories, they need relievers who possess high-octane stuff.
Selby could bring that to the Royals bullpen at some point this year, as could Steven Cruz, Carlos Hernandez, Will Klein, and John McMillon.
Things don’t look fantastic for the veteran Royals relievers, especially Smith.
That said, help could come soon, especially with another power arm added to the organization today.
Can the Royals Build On This Momentum (Especially Against the Astros)
As of Sunday evening, the Royals are third in the AL Central division, behind the Guardians (7-2) and the Tigers (6-3), with the latter actually dropping a home series against the Oakland Athletics this weekend.
Conversely, regarding expected W-L, the Royals fare much better.
The Royals’ run differential is +19, the second-best mark in the division, and 18 runs better than the Tigers’. Their xW-L is 7-3, 1.5 games behind the Guardians’ xW-L of 8-1. While the Guardians have been the Central’s best team thus far, they received some gutting news over the weekend regarding Shane Bieber, their ace.
Thus, with Bieber out, the Guardian’s pitching staff looks shaky after injuries to Gavin Williams and Trevor Stephan this spring. That could open the division quite a bit, especially with the Twins’ injury issues and the Tigers’ inconsistency.
However, the Royals will get a good test at home in their next series against the Astros, which will take place Tuesday-Thursday at the K.
The Astros are 3-7 but have an xW-L of 5-5, thanks to a -4 run differential. Houston played a demanding early schedule, with games against the Yankees, Rangers, and Blue Jays, who all have playoff aspirations this season.
Thankfully, the Royals will miss starter Ronel Blanco, who nearly pulled off a second-straight no-hitter against the defending World Series champions.
Instead, the Royals will face Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown, and JP France, a formidable, though not dominant, trio. Conversely, the Royals will counter with Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, and Brady Singer. The Royals should have a slight edge on the pitching end, especially with the series at home instead of Minute Maid Park (a hitter’s haven).
If the Royals win at least two of three in this series, Kansas City can set itself up nicely for a road trip that includes stops in Queens and the South Side of Chicago. The Mets and White Sox have been reeling this year, and the Royals could feel confident if they are at least 8-5 when they leave Kansas City.
The Astros won’t lie down in Kansas City for three days.
Despite the lackluster record, Houston was a playoff team last year, and they’re still expected to compete in the AL West. The Royals performed well against the Astros last year, especially McArthur, who mowed the Astros down in save opportunities down the stretch in 2023.
McArthur will need to re-channel that self again in this critical series against Houston. Furthermore, the rotation and hitting need to continue carrying this club as they did during the first 10 games of the 2024 season.
If that happens, Royals fans could be optimistic that the Royals are not just due for a great April but could be in store for even more in May and June, when the schedule gets more reasonable.
Photo Credit: AP Photo/Colin E. Braley