Royals Add Lugo and Stratton; Could Greinke Also Be in the Mix?

I think it’s safe to say that JJ Picollo isn’t messing around in his second full offseason as Royals general manager.

On Sunday, the Royals acquired Will Smith, a proven late-innings reliever who brings instant production and credibility to the bullpen.

On Tuesday, Picollo demonstrated that Smith was just the tip of the iceberg, as he acquired not just one, but two pitchers to help the Royals pitching staff in 2024.

The bigger signing of the day proved to be Seth Lugo, who has long been mentioned as a possible free-agent starting pitcher target for the Royals. According to Jeff Passan, the Royals agreed to a three-year deal worth roughly $15 million in average annual value (AAV).

The Lugo signing is one of the biggest deals for a free-agent starting pitcher by the Royals since they signed Ian Kennedy after the 2015 World Series run.

If that wasn’t big enough news for Kansas City fans who’ve been starved for hot stove transactions, the Royals continued to add to their bullpen this winter today, as they acquired Chris Stratton, who like Smith, previously pitched in the Texas Rangers organization.

Lastly, even though the Royals haven’t necessarily shown “serious” interest in bringing back Zack Greinke, the former Cy Young award winner did announce to MLB teams that he is indeed interested in pitching for at least one more season. Greinke will be 40 years old this season and is coming off one of the worst statistical seasons of his career.

Let’s take a look at the projected impact of the Lugo and Stratton signings and whether or not a Greinke reunion (for the third time) could be a possibility for 2024.

What Lugo Brings to the Royals Rotation

If the Lugo deal was made a couple of weeks ago, I think Royals fans would be more enthusiastic.

However, after news broke that the Royals have been in talks with Lucas Giolito, Marcus Stroman, and Jack Flaherty this offseason, I get that Lugo, who just transitioned to the rotation last year, doesn’t inspire a great deal of enthusiasm among the more jaded Kansas City sports fans.

Even though Lugo may not have the pedigree of Giolito, Stroman, or Flaherty, there are plenty of reasons to be excited about Lugo, both in terms of what he brings to the mound, as well as to the Royals roster financially in the short and long term.

There’s no question that at 34 years old, Lugo’s age may worry some Royals fans.

That being said, he still posted a 3.57 ERA a season ago and has posted sub-four ERAs in 2021 and 2022 as a reliever for the Mets. Lugo has been a proved commodity on the mound and he should be good at least for two more seasons on the mound in a starting role (with a transition to the bullpen perhaps possible if he hits a wall by year three).

In addition, even though he pitched nearly 81 more innings in 2023 with the Padres than in 2022 with the Mets, he still posted a 23.2% K rate and 3.89 K/BB ratio. That K rate was only 2.2% lower than his 2022 mark, and his K/BB ratio was actually 0.06 points higher than his ratio in his final season in Queens.

What makes Lugo such an effective pitcher, despite lacking premium stuff (his fastball velocity ranked in the 38th percentile according to Savant), is that he sports a highly diverse pitch repertoire and above-average pitch quality on most of the pitches as well.

Lugo primarily throws five pitches which include the following: a four-seamer (31.8%); a curveball (29.4%); a sinker (20%); a slider (9.1%); a changeup (5.9%); and a sweeper (3.8%), which he introduced to his arsenal in the second half of the season, which can be see in the pitch usage chart below.

What’s interesting to see from Lugo’s pitch usage numbers by month is that his curve dipped with the introduction of his sweeper, especially in the last month of play. The slider saw a small dip in August but jumped back up in September.

The curveball, on the other hand, went from being used as much as 37% of the time in April to only 20.2% in September. Granted, his 6.2% put-away rate and .456 xWOBA on the pitch were probably big reasons why his usage decreased so much in the final month of play.

Surprisingly though, based on PLV pitch quality metrics, Lugo’s curve was actually rated as one of his better pitches last year, which can be seen below.

With a 5.00 PLV, Lugo’s curve was rated slightly above average according to PLV league percentile rankings. Even though the slider’s PLV score was higher at 5.17, it didn’t rank as high around the league compared to Lugo’s slider.

Sweepers tend to get lumped into the “slider” category in PLV. Thus, it would be interesting to see how much of the PLV score was either boosted or hurt by the sweeper Lugo incorporated for a few months last season.

Based on PLV though, Lugo’s best pitch last year proved to be his four-seamer, which produced a PLV of 5.23 and PLA of 3.18. His four-seamer ranked close to the 90th percentile, and even according to Savant, his fastball run value produced a +17 mark, which ranked him in the 97th percentile.

The movement on Lugo’s four-seamer was impressive last year and a big contributor to his plus PLV score. The pitch averaged about 14.5 inches of rise last year, and it consistently showed much more vertical movement than his sinker, which only had a PLV of 4.70.

Look at the difference between the two pitches in Lugo’s induced movement chart and one can see why Lugo’s four-seamer was more effective in 2023.

In addition to generating a solid rise on the four-seamer, Lugo was also able to “raid the zone” with the four-seamer as well, which can be seen in his four-seam heatmap via Savant.

That combo of movement and command was a big reason why Lugo produced a K rate of 31.8 percent (the highest mark of any of his pitches). This is despite the pitch only generating a 21.5% whiff rate (the second-lowest whiff rate of his six pitches last year) and averaging 93.4 MPH.

Here’s an example of Lugo utilizing his premium control on the four-seamer to freeze Arizona’s Jace Peterson for the backward K.

Lugo FF-CS-2023

It’ll be interesting to see how Lugo fares in his second full year as a starter next season in Kansas City, let alone throughout his three-year contract.

However, for a rotation that struggled overall as a group in 2023 (they ranked 27th in ERA; and 21st in WHIP), Lugo brings a big boost, as long as he’s healthy.

Stratton Brings Depth and Stability to Bullpen

After the Royals acquired Smith, it seemed likely that the Royals would be targeting Ryne Stanek as their right-handed veteran free-agent reliever. Stanek is not only a local guy (he attended Blue Valley High School), but he also pitched in the Rays organization when manager Matt Quatraro and bench coach Paul Hoover were on the staff.

It is still possible that the Royals may be in discussions with Stanek. That being said, shortly after the announcement of the Lugo deal, the Royals did acquire a veteran right-handed reliever whose name hadn’t been mentioned often among Royals fans.

That reliever was Stratton, who pitched for both the Cardinals and Rangers last season and was drafted and developed by the San Francisco Giants organization.

The 33-year-old righty is coming off a solid season in which he not only posted a 3.92 ERA in 64 appearances but also generated a K rate of 24% to go against a walk rate of 7.4%. The latter was a 1.6% decrease from his BB rate the previous season and a big reason why his xERA was 34 points lower than his actual ERA last year.

Stratton sports a more traditional four-pitch mix (four-seamer; slider; curve; changeup). He relies heavily on his four-seamer at 54.6%, with his slider (19.3%) and curve (18.8%) being his primary secondary offerings.

Here’s a look at how Stratton’s PLV chart from last year looked.

All four of Stratton’s pitches last year were above-average offerings based on PLV.

His curve was his best overall pitch on a PLV end with a 5.44 mark and his changeup was pretty stellar as well at 5.17. Even though the four-seamer was under the 5 mark, it still was above the league average in terms of PLV percentiles.

Much like Lugo, Stratton doesn’t possess a high-velocity fastball (93.1 MPH; 34th percentile). That being said, similar to his new teammate, he can locate his four-seamer consistently up in the zone and his curve and slider down, respectively.

Here’s a look at Stratton doing those two things with his four-seamer and breaking offerings last season both with the Cardinals as well as the Rangers.

Chris Stratton-FF-CU-SL-2023

I am not sure if Stratton will surpass Smith or James McArthur for closer innings in the Royals bullpen next season (unless both are tapped out and unable to pitch on a given day).

On the other hand, Royals fans should expect Stratton to get opportunities in high-leverage situations, especially in the middle innings.

Should the Royals Bring Greinke Back for 2024?

Honestly, at first glance, it’s hard to justify Greinke back on this Royals pitching staff next year, especially if Kansas City wants to truly improve upon their 56-106 record a year ago.

After all, Greinke posted a 5.06 ERA and lost 15 games in 30 appearances (including 27 starts) and 142.1 IP.

To make matters worse, he also produced a 5.10 ERA and allowed a xwOBA of .344. Thus, it wasn’t just a season in which Greinke had some bad batted-ball luck. He was truly below average and did not help the Royals on the mound much in 2023.

The Royals shouldn’t have a spot in the rotation reserved for Greinke in 2024. Right now, based on Roster Resource’s projected 2024 depth chart, it’s hard to see him as a better option than any of the current options listed as “starters” for next season.

On the flip side though, could Greinke perhaps find a role as a long reliever or swingman who can fill in as a spot starter when the occasion/matchup arises?

There could be some potential for Greinke in that role in Kansas City. His 3.9% BB rate ranked in the 98th percentile last year, and he sported some intriguing and solid pitches last year, based on PLV.

The sinker and four-seamer were both below-average offerings in 2023 based on the PLV metrics (4.64 and 4.74, respectively). However, his cutter (5.38), curve (5.20), slider (5.38), and changeup (5.11) were well ABOVE average pitches based on PLV.

What could happen if Greinke increased those offerings more and utilized the four-seamer and sinker a lot less?

He couldn’t be able to replicate that pitch mix in 4-6 innings of starting work and find consistent success. But in 2-3 innings of relief? Maybe that’s more feasible.

Of course, any Greinke deal has to be team-friendly for the Royals (i.e. something more similar to Stratton than Lugo). Will Greinke want to play so bad that he’d be willing to not just accept that lesser role but fewer dollars as well?

Picollo and the Royals seem open to a Greinke return for one more year. However, it may not happen until later in the offseason, after the Royals finish their major moves first, as Picollo hinted in an interview with Bally Sports Kansas City.

I guess Royals fans and the baseball world will just have to wait and see what Greinke would be open to this offseason, and whether or not that offer will come from Kansas City as well.

Photo Credit: Suzanna Mitchell/San Francisco Giants/Getty Images

12 thoughts on “Royals Add Lugo and Stratton; Could Greinke Also Be in the Mix?”

  1. Mr. O’B, Any chance that Jordan Lyles gets bumped out of therotation and into the ‘pen? Also, could adding these veterans mean they’re needingto build a bridge to the youngsters, i.e. giving them moretime to mature? Or are they losing confidence in them?

    PS – I’d love to see Zach in the ‘pen from where he wasbirthed, anything to see him get the 3000th K.

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    1. It’s possible that could happen. I think the Royals are pushing Lyles in trades but as expected, I’m sure they’re not getting any takers. A big part of whether Lyles moves to the pen depends on how Lynch does this Spring. If Lynch is able to bounce back, see that velocity get back to ’22 levels, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him perhaps bump Lyles from the rotation (I believe they will acquire one more SP for the record).

      I don’t think they’re giving up on the young guys, but I think they understand that they need depth for down seasons/injuries. Last year they depended heavily on their young arms and that proved to be disastrous because they didn’t have the depth to absorb the injuries (Bubic and Lynch) or down years (Singer). If the young guys step up, the Royals will make sure they get innings. But I think JJ and the Royals know that they need to have a deep staff if they want to compete.

      I go back and forth with Zack as well. I think seeing him as a reliever or hybrid guy wouldn’t hurt. He showed he could be good for 2-4 innings stetches. He just can’t face a lineup multiple times in a game. How much is that worth of course? And is that worth possibly jeopardizing the spot of their young pitchers, like Rule 5 pick Sauer or Bowlan or Marsh? That’s the big question.

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