When Do the Royals Make a Change in the Outfield? (And What Does It Look Like?)

The Royals lost the series finale to the Texas Rangers on Sunday by a 3-2 score.

Kansas City held a 2-0 lead in the 8th inning. Still, the combination of not coming through with runners in scoring position (1-for-10) and relievers John Schreiber and James McArthur giving up big hits in the final few innings cost what should’ve been the 21st win of the season.

As expected after a blowout loss on Saturday and a disappointing defeat on Sunday, Royals fans have quickly shared their frustrations over social media.

Some fans pointed to the disappointing bullpen performance. While it was discouraging to see Schreiber and McArthur fail to hold the lead, they have been nails all season, and blown saves are going to happen, especially over a 162-game season.

The Royals’ inconsistent and lackluster offense has been the recipient of fans’ frustration, especially at the bottom of the order.

In fact, the Royals have not gotten much dependable run production from anyone in the lineup beyond Bobby Witt, Jr. and Salvador Perez. That is a big reason why their offense ranks 16th in batting average, 22nd in OPS, and 15th in OPS overall.

Even though the Royals haven’t gotten much consistent production from Maikel Garcia and Vinnie Pasquantino, they have shown streaks this year of how they can be valuable pieces to this team beyond this season. That is not just on the hitting end but also on the defensive end.

On the flip side, the outfield has been a significant question mark in nearly every facet.

According to Fangraphs, the Royals’ outfielders rank 28th in wRC+ and 27th in fWAR as of Sunday. Furthermore, Kansas City only has one outfielder with a fWAR above zero: Kyle Isbel, who has a fWAR of 0.4.

As Royals fans can see in the table above, four outfielders on the current active roster have produced a negative fWAR this year. That includes Hunter Renfroe and Adam Frazier, two players the Royals acquired through free agency this offseason.

The Royals are still in the hunt for the AL Central division, though today’s loss means they are tied with the Minnesota Twins for second place. Even though there’s a lot of baseball games to be played this season (there still is 127 games to go), Royals fans have to wonder:

How long will JJ Picollo stick with this outfield group, and what kind of changes could be coming in the outfield, whether internally from Omaha or outside the organization via a trade?

How Much Patience Will This Group Get?

Even though it feels like a lot of the regular season has passed, the reality is that we’re still pretty early into the MLB season before any significant moves are/should be made (though the Miami Marlins front office certainly bucked that trend by trading Luis Arraez to the Padres over the weekend).

Major roster shakeups happen around Memorial Day unless the team is drastically poor, as evidenced by the Marlins’ most recent move. Even last year, when the Royals were expected to be awful and got off to a horrific start, the first significant move they made was releasing Hunter Dozier, whose DFA wasn’t official until May 27th, just two days before Memorial Day.

So, as frustrated as Royals fans may be, it may be a few weeks before we see them make a significant roster change with the outfield.

That said, barring injury, a roster shuffle in the outfield will likely be the first significant in-season move of the 2024 season.

However, what will that move be, and who will be affected?

When gauging the “safety” of current Royals outfielders, it is essential to break down their overall profiles, importance to the Royals’ roster, and ability to compete in the AL Central division.

Even though Isbel’s offense has been inconsistent, he’s been one of the best outfielders defensively on the Royals roster and perhaps in all of baseball.

According to Baseball Savant, Isbel’s +3 OAA is tied for the third-best mark in baseball, behind only Daulton Varsho of the Blue Jays, Julio Rodriguez of the Mariners, and Michael A. Taylor of the Pirates.

Regarding how he compares to other Royals outfielders, only Garrett Hampson has produced anything close defensively to Isbel in the outfield this year.

Isbel’s .281 wOBA and 77 wRC+ aren’t impressive, but his defensive value makes up for it. Thus, he will remain as the Royals’ regular centerfielder for the remainder of the season.

Melendez should also remain in the Royals’ outfield plans this season, even though he hit a tremendous slump after a hot start. Melendez did seem to snap out of his slump a bit in today’s game, as he collected two hits, including a double.

According to Baseball Savant, he is still hitting the ball hard, as he ranks in the 69th percentile in average exit velocity and 72nd percentile in barrel rate.

He also is hitting the ball hard on pitches thrown in the strike zone, as evidenced by his average exit velocity zone chart data.

Melendez may be what he is: a streaky hitter who will have tremendous highs and lows respectively. That said, considering where the Royals are in the outfield right now, he will merit more opportunities in 2024 (though this offseason could change his outlook for 2025 if he doesn’t improve offensively).

Lastly, Blanco will probably continue to be on this roster because he’s such a valuable weapon on the basepaths. His defense hasn’t been as good as last season, but the baserunning is better than ever, making Blanco a valuable outfielder off the bench.

Thus, the primary outfielders with questionable outlooks for the Royals are Hampson, Frazier, Renfroe, and Nelson Velazquez.

Hampson and Frazier may have less patience to work with than Renfroe for various reasons. First, Renfroe is starting to drive the ball more after a slow start. That was evident by his home run on Friday, which tied up the game against Texas.

Renfroe has also made decent plate decisions despite his struggles. His PLV rolling decision value chart bounced back after he pressed for a bit during a slump. Before that slump, though, his plate decisions ranked in the 90th percentile, according to the PLV Data.

Thus, it is likely that Renfroe will continue to get at-bats and should be on this roster until the All-Star break, at the very least. While that may not be encouraging news for frustrated Royals fans, he is bound to turn things around and should be at least a guy who can start to get on base more and hit for power, which becomes easier at Kauffman when the weather heats up.

Renfroe also has the advantage over Velazquez due to his veteran status and lack of options. Interestingly enough, though, Velazuez’s decision value rolling chart data is just as good, if not better, than Renfroe’s.

However, Velazquez also has a 30.7% K rate and .130 ISO, which both lag behind Renfroe. So unless Velazquez seems to improve in those categories, it’s hard to see Velazquez leapfrog Renfroe right now (though I think Velazquez still has more upside this year).

The last question marks to discuss are Hampson and Frazier, who have definitely been the main targets of frustrated Royals fans on the hitting end.

I get it. Hampson is posting a 37 wRC+, and Frazier has a 55 wRC+. That doesn’t help an offense looking for any jolt it can get.

Not too long ago, I discussed the possibility of Frazier being a super utility player due to his defense and strong plate discipline. Since then, though, he has seen his K rate rise close to the league average, severely depressing his value.

Frazier also seems superfluous as a left-handed hitter better suited for the infield. That has been especially true with starting second baseman Michael Massey beginning to hit a groove offensively.

Therefore, I am considering whether Hampson fits this roster better than Frazier.

Hampson rates better defensively and on the basepaths than Frazier, and Hampson is right-handed, which is what they lack for now until Nick Loftin or Drew Waters returns to Kansas City (more on that in a bit).

Frazier may have the better plate discipline, but he pales compared to Hampson in other categories, making him a less valuable and versatile piece off the bench. Furthermore, due to Frazier’s veteran status, it may be easier for Frazier to get something in return than Hampson, which may be the deciding factor for Picollo when it comes to deciding between the two utility players.

Who Can Help from Omaha? (Or Do They Need to Go Elsewhere?)

Like the Royals, the Omaha Storm Chasers are off to a strong start. They are 19-11 after their series-clinching victory on the road against the Iowa Cubs, and their offense has been a big reason why they have been so successful to begin the season.

When it comes to outfielders in Omaha, five candidates could realistically come up and impact the Royals lineup:

Nick Loftin, Drew Waters, Nick Pratto, Tyler Gentry, and Nate Eaton.

Let’s ignore the surface-level metrics for a second. Werner Park tends to play more as a hitter’s park, so offensive data should always be taken with a grain of salt.

When evaluating Omaha hitters, it is more important to focus on batted-ball quality, the launch angles they produce, and how much they whiff against the Triple-A pitchers (who often are just Four-A pitchers).

Here’s a look at the data in those areas via Savant:

Waters has been the most impressive hitter on an XWOBA and barrel rate end. However, he’s also whiffing the second-most of this hitter group, and his average exit velocity of 87.7 MPH is also the second-worst mark. He also only produces an average launch angle of 8.3 degrees, which may not transition well in a park with Kauffman’s dimensions.

Loftin improved his average exit velocity in Omaha, around 82 MPH, when he was with the Royals. That said, his hard-hit rate is still questionable (37.5%), he’s still not barreling the ball a lot, and the launch angle is even worse than Waters.

Am I saying that Loftin and Waters won’t be good? Not at all.

They just may not be as ready for Kansas City as everyone thinks. They should probably see another month in Omaha so the Royals can truly know if they’re improving in those important categories and are prepared for the big leagues. The last thing the Royals want is to call them up, see them struggle, and send them back down in a few weeks.

Pratto and Gentry seem like they still have a lot to work on and may need until after the All-Star break to make their debut (and that’s the soonest). Pratto is at least launching the ball, as he has the best launch angle and second-best barrel rate of this group of Storm Chaser hitters.

The sleeper of the bunch may be Eaton, who has the best hard-hit rate and is tied with Loftin for the best whiff rate. The difference between Eaton and Loftin is that Easton is a bit more of a dependable defensive outfielder and launches the ball more consistently than Loftin.

The only issue is that the Royals would have to clear a roster spot for Eaton if they wanted to bring him back to Kansas City (he’s not on the 40-man roster anymore). Then again, adding Eaton could be an easy move if the Royals DFA Hampson or Frazier.

The options in Omaha are enticing, but none are a slam dunk to be a short-term or long-term option in the Kansas City outfield.

Thus, the Royals could be exploring a possible trade to improve the outfield. If the Marlins are sellers, they may be willing to part with an outfielder like Bryan De La Cruz or Jesus Sanchez. Both offer major power potential and could play in either corner outfield spot.

Furthermore, both De La Cruz and Sanchez will be in arbitration next offseason, so the Marlins may rush to deal with them to save money.

How big a buyer the Royals will be this season could depend significantly on how the next two months fare record-wise.

Thus, it may be better to focus on who the Royals have available in Omaha and see that they get a fair chance if the Royals’ outfield offense doesn’t improve.

That said, if the Royals still in the Central division race in late June?

Expect Picollo to make a move to acquire someone who can instantly improve their outfield and be an option for at least 2025.

Photo Credit: Erin Hooley | AP

4 thoughts on “When Do the Royals Make a Change in the Outfield? (And What Does It Look Like?)”

  1. Why are the Royals blocking Nelson Velazquez playing everyday? Melendez, Isbel, Renfroe are players that have shown their ceiling. That isn’t getting higher.

    I’d much rather see Drew Waters, CJ Alexander and Nelson V in the outfield than the Mendoza-line hitting outfield they are currently trotting out there.

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    1. I’ll be honest. I like Velazquez a lot, but he’s not really hitting the ball hard right now and he’s still swinging and missing a whole lot. Is average EV is down almost 4 MPH from last year and his hard-hit rate is down nearly 14 points as well. Add that with a whiff rate that’s in the 2nd percentile, and I can understand why Velazquez has been losing at-bats.

      Honestly, I really think a demotion for him to work on things and getting to see Waters wouldn’t be the worst idea. Waters has swing and miss issues too, but at least Waters still has some upside and they get better defensively with Waters as well.

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