After solidifying their bullpen this offseason with the acquisitions of Nick Anderson (via trade), Will Smith, and Chris Stratton (via free agency), the Royals made their moves in terms of solidifying their rotation through two free-agent signings.

The first one was Seth Lugo, who the Royals signed to a two-year deal with a player option for a third season. The second starting pitching move happened to be Michael Wacha, who the Royals introduced in a press conference on Monday at Kauffman Stadium.

"When we talk about adding to our clubhouse, winners and people that have been there, Michael certainly represents that."

More from Michael Wacha's introductory press conference with the #Royals yesterday: https://t.co/Uu46CMELQ7

— Anne Rogers (@anne__rogers) December 19, 2023

The Wacha move is a step in the right direction for a Royals team that lost a franchise-record 106 games. That isn’t to say the Royals will win the World Series in 2024 or even 2025. That being said, this offseason thus far has shown that general manager JJ Picollo and owner John Sherman are not simply going to sit on their hands and “hope” that they will improve next season and beyond.

Acquiring Wacha definitely is a move to celebrate by Royals fans, especially those wishing this offseason that Kansas City would spend some money on pitching help.

Last year, in 134.1 IP with the San Diego Padres, Wacha had one of the best seasons of his career as he posted a 3.22 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 3.89 FIP, and 2.6 fWAR. The 32-year-old former Cardinals first-round pick also showed impeccable control (2.88 K/BB ratio) as well as an ability to limit barrels (7.3%) and hard hits (35.5% hard-hit percentage) in his lone season in San Diego.

It’s not a surprise that the Royals would offer him a deal worth $16 million in average annual value over the next two years (if he opts into his 2025 player option).

Nonetheless, while the Royals’ acquisition solidifies their needs for starting pitching in 2024, Wacha was not the only free agent or starting pitcher outside of the organization that the club targeted this offseason.

Other free agent names connected to the Royals included former White Sox ace Lucas Giolito and Cubs starter Marcus Stroman. Also, shortly after news of the Wacha signing broke, Ken Rosenthal reported that the Miami Marlins and the Royals discussed a possible Jesus Luzardo for Vinnie Pasquantino trade that was eventually declined by the Royals (who opted to sign Wacha instead).

The Royals discussed a deal of Vinnie Pasquantino for Jesus Luzardo but opted to push for Michael Wacha instead. https://t.co/juT3Vcdbsa

— Royals Review (@royalsreview) December 16, 2023

Getting Wacha and Lugo makes the Royals’ rotation instantly better for 2024. However, should the Royals have opted to throw more money and/or years to acquire Giolito or Stroman, or bite the bullet and make the trade for Luzardo, who could be a long-term ace for the Royals?

Let’s compare Wacha to the alternative starting pitcher options and whether or not the Royals made the right move this offseason.

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Short-Term Upside and Flexibility With Wacha?

In addition to Wacha, it appeared that Picollo and the Royals were making a solid push this offseason for both Giolito and Stroman to help fix the Royals’ needs at the top of the rotation.

MLB rumors: Royals eye rotation help in Lucas Giolito, Marcus Stroman; Guardians get calls on Josh Naylor https://t.co/Yi8JZkVV4L pic.twitter.com/6eceUdsb06

— Ron Bohning (@RonBohning) December 11, 2023

According to Spotrac information, Giolito’s market value is currently around $11.868 million while Stroman’s is $15.633 million. Thus, it’s likely that the two were in the Royals’ price range this offseason. However, it seemed like the Royals preferred the short-term flexibility of Wacha’s deal compared to the likely more guaranteed years it would’ve taken to convince Stroman and Giolito to come to Kansas City.

On strictly a baseball end though, who has performed better recently, and who has a more positive outlook for 2024?

Here’s a look at a two-year comparison between the three, via Fangraphs.

Granted, there are some areas where Wacha has lagged behind Stroman and Giolito the past two seasons.

For starters, Wacha has logged only 261.2 IP over that sample, which is nearly 14 fewer innings than Stroman over that period and 85 fewer innings than Giolito. In addition, the former Padre and Red Sox starting pitcher has sported the lowest BABIP and highest BABIP% of the three. Therefore, it’s not a surprise that his 4.23 xFIP is higher than Stroman’s (3.64) and Giolito’s (4.08).

On the other hand, there still is a lot to be encouraged about from Wacha.

His 3.27 ERA and 3.08 K/BB ratio over the past two years is the best of the three. Furthermore, he has logged the most number of wins as well (25), which demonstrates he can keep his team competitive in games in his starts. While his groundball percentage could be a bit better (37.7%), it is still better than Giolito’s (37.3%) and his HR/FB rate of 10.6% is the most impressive of the group as well.

Wacha certainly may not be the “innings-eater” that Stroman and Giolito could possibly be in 2024, and he certainly carries some risk with his injury history (2023 was the first season he pitched more than 130 innings since 2017). On the other hand, as highlighted in a recent Baseball Prospectus article by Matthew Trueblood, that kind of “mold” may be going away anyway (except teams in the NL Central, who seem to value “mediocre” innings eaters over “high quality but fewer innings” hurlers).

Here’s what Trueblood says about teams investing in pitchers with “limited innings” history due to their high quality in those innings, even if they do carry some risk.

…The teams in the Central are scrambling to catch up to the pitching staffs of their coastal rivals, but the guys they’re paying handsomely for are so unattractive that there’s little competition for them from outside the Central corridor.

We could be seeing this change, already. The Reds gave Nick Martinez the same kind of flexible, player-friendly contract he’d previously had with the Padres; Martinez was good but limited in innings last year. The Royals signed both Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, who fit the same general mold. The Tigers got both Kenta Maeda and Jack Flaherty, gambling on some upside from guys who have been anything but back-end innings eaters in recent years. Those are three very different front offices, but they all seem to have noticed that the teams who routinely knock them around are paying for upside and embracing the possibility of getting hit with the major downside of injury or regression.

“Volume and Value” by Matthew Trueblood; Baseball Prospectus

There’s no question that Wacha will not be a consistent “7-8 innings” guy, unlike Giolito who’s been an innings-eater the past two years (184.1 IP last year), or Stroman, who’s shown flashes of that in the past (he pitched 179 innings as recently as 2021).

Then again though, with the Royals adding quality depth to their bullpen this offseason, the need for such a pitcher may not be needed.

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Wacha’s Pitch Quality vs. Giolito and Stroman’s

When it comes to projecting pitcher performance for the upcoming season, pitch quality, as measured by PLV, can be a good indicator.

Here’s a look at the 2023 PLV charts for Wacha, Giolito, and Stroman.

As Royals fans can see, Wacha sports the best overall PLV and PLA with 5.13 and 3.54 marks, respectively. Furthermore, Wacha also sports the best overall pitch on a PLV end with his changeup, which posted a 5.75 PLV and 1.71 PLA.

Here’s a look at that changeup, which sports nasty arm-side movement and was thrown 34.5% of the time, according to Savant.

Michael Wacha CH-2023

Another positive aspect of Wacha’s PLV profile is that he didn’t sport a pitch that was as low as Stroman or Giolito’s lowest-rated pitch on a PLV end. Stroman’s worst pitch on a PLV end was his splitter, which sported a 4.38 PLV. As for Giolito, his curveball was ghastly with a 3.87 PLV.

Wacha’s worst pitch in 2023 was his sinker, which had a 4.61 PLV. It also sported a 5.06 PLA. To compare, Giolito’s curve had a 7.60 PLA, and Stroman sported two pitches with PLA marks over 5, including his sinker, his primary pitch, which had a 5.12 PLA.

Thus, Wacha’s pitch quality floor is a lot more promising than both Stroman and Giolito, which makes his short-term contract flexibility advantageous for the Royals in terms of value.

The Royals didn’t just get good “bang for the buck” by signing Wacha. They also have a contract that could net them a nice trade return should they decide to be active sellers at the August Trade Deadline.

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Wacha vs. Luzardo

Even though Wacha doesn’t have the “name power” of Stroman or Giolito, the Royals made the right free-agent decision with Wacha, especially with the likely years and money it would’ve taken to acquire Giolito or Stroman.

On the other hand, the Luzardo option is a much tougher one to digest.

With Sandy Alcantara regressing and struggling through injury a season ago (and expected to be out for all of 2024), Luzardo has become the “ace” of the Marlins rotation. It is merited though, especially when one looks at what he’s done the past two years and compares it to Wacha’s, via Fangraphs.

In terms of strikeouts (10.58 K/9 to Wacha’s 7.84), fastball velocity (96.7 MPH to 92.8 MPH), xFIP (3.50 to 4.23), and fWAR (5.9 to 4.1), Luzardo has clearly been better than the Royals’ new starter. Luzardo is also only 26 years old (nearly six years younger than Wacha) and won’t be a free agent until 2027. Therefore, the Royals could’ve not just gotten a young and budding Luzardo for at least three seasons but perhaps could’ve negotiated some kind of extension that could’ve not just bought out his arbitration years, but a free agent season or two (i.e. a 4-5 year deal).

It’s easy to get wistful about that lost possibility of Luzardo in a Royals uniform, especially when looking at the numbers from last season and seeing him mow down guys with his electric stuff.

At the end of the day though, I think Luzardo would’ve been a tremendously risky move, and I’m not sure Royals fans would’ve ever forgiven Picollo for giving away Vinnie Pasquantino, even for a budding ace. Vinnie is such a fan favorite and had such a good rookie season in 2022 that I think it would’ve been tough to see him part, especially with the Royals needing to iron out their specific young core to build around with Bobby Witt, Jr. the obvious centerpiece.

That said, I think when looking at the data, especially from last year, I think the Luzardo deal wouldn’t have been as bad as some Royals fans would’ve feared. That is especially true when diving into Vinnie’s PLV data charts.

Here’s a look at his Decision Value and Power charts from a season ago and for a first baseman, there were some concerning trends in both categories from Vinnie.

The power saw a dropoff around the 180th BBE mark, which could be tied to his shoulder injury that eventually ended his 2023 season after only 61 games. So while that’s concerning, it’s understandable considering the situation and it is easy to see his power PLV metrics jump back up to those 75th percentile levels in 2024 if he’s fully recovered.

The decision value dip though, which rated in the bottom 10th percentile from around the 650 to 1000th pitch mark last year, is a big red flag. It is especially alarming to see the runs added per 100 pitch numbers so low last year, especially since plate discipline was Vinnie’s calling card in 2022 and as a prospect.

Was that simply Vinnie pressing and trying to make things up through a nagging injury? Or was the league adjusting to Vinnie after his solid 72-game sample in 2022 and he was struggling to do likewise?

Those Vinnie charts especially don’t fare well when compared to Luzardo’s own PLV chart.

Luzardo’s overall PLV of 4.94 is lower than Wacha’s (5.13). However, Luzardo sported three pitches that ranked in the 75th percentile in pitch quality (four-seamer; changeup; and sinker). If Luzardo could find some kind of adjustment on his slider to make it an average pitch in terms of quality, he could be a Cy Young candidate in 2024 and beyond.

That’s what the Royals passed on. Wacha is safe, but he isn’t going to be a Cy Young candidate, and he likely won’t be in Kansas City for more than two years.

The Royals could have had a legitimate “ace” to be paired up with a budding one in Cole Ragans for maybe 4-6 years. Sure, Luzardo has an injury history as well, and that is what dogged him before he came to Miami.

Nonetheless, one has to wonder if the Royals probably got a little too conservative with the Luzardo for Vinnie possibility.

The Royals are staking their claim on a first-base-only guy who only has 133 games under his belt and has just produced a 1.5 fWAR over that time frame. He’s also 26 years old and his body frame won’t get any more athletic over time, which will only drive down his defensive value.

I love Vinnie. I really do as a fan.

But Luzardo…well…that’s a tough pitcher to pass on and hopefully Picollo and the Royals don’t regret it.

Photo Credit: Quinn Harris/Getty Images