I am leaving for California to spend Christmas time with my family. Thus, I won’t be as active on the blog or on X until the 26th or so.
Thus, I wanted to get a quick post before I began my long journey west.
In this post, based on the offseason moves thus far, I am going to make my quick AL Central predictions. I will probably write another one at the end of January and another at the end of February right before Spring Training begins.
1. Minnesota Twins (85-77)
I think it’s the Twins division to lose again, but I think this club will be slightly worse from a season ago unless something dramatic happens over the next two months.
Already, the Twins have lost Sonny Gray (to the Cardinals) and Kenta Maeda (to the Tigers) which is a bit of a blow to a Twins rotation that ranked 2nd in ERA a season ago. The Twins do return Pablo Lopez, who’s a legitimate AL Cy Young candidate, but Joe Ryan posted a 4.51 ERA and looked pretty mortal down the stretch. Bailey Ober returned from injury looking solid (3.43 ERA in 26 starts) but he’s had injury issues in the past, and I’m curious to see if he can put together back-to-back solid seasons, especially in a more elevated role.
Minnesota is hoping that they can internally develop the back end of their rotation, but that could be more challenging with pitching more in demand and more expensive than ever before, as Twins Daily wrote about recently.
Offensively, Royce Lewis will be the heart and soul of this lineup, as long as he is healthy. They also had nice breakout performances from guys like Edouard Julien and Matt Wallner, which makes their lineup more dangerous than most in the AL Central. Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton have name power, but I wonder about their health as well as what their outlook for 2024 will be coming off down seasons offensively.
It’s hard to pick anyone but the Twins to win this division in 2024. However, the AL Central has had three different division winners over the past three years (White Sox in ’21; Guardians in ’22; and Twins in ’23).
It wouldn’t be surprising to see that trend continue in the AL Central in ’24.
2. Detroit Tigers (81-81)
Other than the Royals, the Tigers have been one of the more active clubs not just in the Central, but in all of baseball.
They added Mark Canha this offseason to not just man a corner outfield position, but also help a lineup that ranked 28th in OPS in 2023. The rest of the lineup should be the same, which can be good or bad depending on one’s viewpoint.
Spencer Torkelson finally lived up to his once-massive prospect hype last year as he hit 31 home runs. However, he’s a low batting-average kind of guy (.233), so much of his value rests on his power. Riley Greene showed flashes in 2023, as he hit .288 with 11 home runs, but he was dogged by injuries and limited to only 416 plate appearances.
The Tigers have a lot of internal system position players who fill out the lineup and range from intriguing (Kerry Carpenter) to underwhelming (Parker Meadows and Zach McKinstry). They also will need to give Javy Baez at-bats, as he opted into his deal this offseason and has failed to do much at the plate in his time in Detroit.
The pitching staff was a strength of the Tigers last year, especially the rotation which ranked 16th in ERA and 6th in WHIP.
Tarik Skubal will continue to be the “ace” of this rotation, but Detroit has remarkable depth which could help them reach the .500 mark for the first time since 2016. In addition to Maeda, the Tigers also signed Jack Flaherty to a one-year deal, and it sounds like Detroit is confident that they can help him adjust and find success again after a lackluster finish in Baltimore in 2023.
Detroit is flush with young promising arms like Matt Manning, Reese Olson, Wilmer Flores, Sawyer Gipson-Long, and Casey Mize, who missed all of 2023 due to injury. So the depth will be there for the Tigers, even if Maeda and Flaherty struggle to return to form.
Additionally, this bullpen will look to be solid again next year (17th in ERA) though I do wonder if some of the “career years” we saw from some guys will transition to 2024 (i.e. Alex Lange, etc.). I feel like regression could be due for this relief group in 2024, which will make it hard for them to surpass 81 wins.
3. Kansas City Royals (75-87)
I am going to be a homer and put the Royals in third place based on the offseason they have had.
That said, I think the Royals will be a year away from serious contention in the division, though a 19-win improvement from their win total in 2023 will be something to celebrate and a step in the right direction for a franchise that hasn’t had a winning season since 2015.
Since this is a Royals blog, I am not going to go in-depth into this as a lot of my posts have already contributed to this initial prediction. The pitching has seemed to improve, both in the rotation and bullpen and I think we will see some bounce back in offensive productivity, especially if Vinnie Pasquantino is fully healthy.
Many experts are predicting that the Royals could be dark-horse contenders in an AL Central that has so many question marks with the typical favorites in the division (Cleveland and Minnesota).
I do feel that there are too many question marks in the lineup for this team to be an 80-to-81-win team in 2024.
Will Michael Massey and MJ Melendez have good full seasons? What will Salvy look like after a down season for his standards? Can Brady Singer bounce back and solidify the bottom of the rotation? Can Bobby Witt, Jr. continue to lead this lineup offensively, defensively, and on the basepaths.
A lot of chips will fall in the right direction for the Royals this year but not enough to be a .500 team…yet.
4. Cleveland Guardians (74-88)
Dan Szymborski just released his latest ZiPS projections on the Guardians and it seems like his ZiPS projection model is optimistic on the Guardians, who seem to compare very favorably to the 2023 Arizona Diamondbacks, who won the AL Pennant last year.
On one end, I understand Royals fans don’t really like Szymborski very much.
His combination of ties to the Twins (he’s a Minnesota fan) and snarky commentary can certainly rub Royals fans the wrong way. That being said, his analysis is based on his computer projections (which are unbiased and based on past performance and similar player modeling), and it’s not like the projections have been totally wrong on the Royals recently.
However, if there’s one team I’m down on in the Central for 2024, it’s the Guardians.
First off, it’s very likely that this roster will look different come Opening Day.
Shane Bieber and Josh Naylor have had their names frequently mentioned in trade talks this offseason. Maybe some deals get done, or maybe they don’t, especially considering Cleveland tends to be tough negotiators when it comes to what they expect in return for prized players. Nonetheless, I doubt that either Naylor or Bieber will be finishing the year with this Guardians roster, let alone breaking spring camp with the club.
Furthermore, I think the Guardians have tended to overachieve because Terry Francona is a heck of a manager and is now enjoying retirement. Cleveland will be entering the first year of the Stephen Vogt era, which I think will be a bit of an adjustment for the club and fanbase.
I do think Vogt was a great choice and he will be a great manager in the long term (which is scary for Royals fans). However, as we saw from Quatraro last season, we have seen first-year managers go through growing pains in their debut years.
It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Guardians underperform their Pythagorean record in 2024 due to those growing pains under Vogt. That’s why a 74-win season seems pretty predictable in my eyes, though I certainly could see the Royals and Guardians flip-flopping in the standings by my next prediction.
5. Chicago White Sox (60-102)
The White Sox will begin year one of the Chris Getz era and boy, it does seem like they’re trying to recreate the Royals model, as I talked about previously on this blog.
As Royals fans know though, it may not produce a lot of wins, especially in the first year of this new “rebuild.”
The White Sox have parted ways with Tim Anderson and it seems like it will only be a matter of time before Dylan Cease is on his way out. Chicago still does have Luis Robert, Jr., who’s a bonafide and legitimate star, and Eloy Jimenez and Yoan Moncada have demonstrated flashes of being stars in the past. Frankly, though, it’s hard to find a lot of hope with this team, and the White Sox may be trying to tank to re-stock their farm system.
Honestly, as a Royals fan, there’s part of me that wishes for the White Sox’s rebuild to work.
I like Getz and think he has the potential to be a GM who can be a younger and modern-day version of Dayton Moore. I also am rooting for Pedro Grifol, who I thought should’ve gotten a shot as Royals manager before Mike Matheny. Plus, Robert, Jimenez, and Moncada are fun players to watch, even if they play for a division rival.
Nonetheless, things appear bleak for the White Sox in 2024 and could get even worse if Robert and Cease are traded away.
That could happen sooner rather than later, much to the dismay of already frustrated baseball fans on the South Side.
Photo Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images
[…] Kevin O’Brein, the Royals Reporter, is going to be on vacation over parts of the holidays, he got an early start on his AL Central […]
[…] With the Royals being one of the few teams actually spending this offseason and not staying pat, some fans, and experts think that the postseason could be a legitimate endeavor in 2024, especially in a division that has seen three different division winners over the past three seasons. […]
[…] My first volume of AL Central Predictions came back in December. Back then, the Royals hadn’t signed Bobby Witt, Jr. to a massive extension, but they had just signed Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, and Hunter Renfroe. Furthermore, not a lot of projections had come out yet, so it was difficult to tell what the computers were saying not just about the Royals, but the other four clubs in the AL Central. […]