In a surprising move on Saturday morning, the Royals announced a trade of Royals pitching prospect David Sandlin for Boston Red Sox reliever John Schreiber.
At the Royals Rally, JJ Picollo mentioned that the Royals would be “opportunistic” regarding any moves to improve their roster. There were rumors out there (primarily from The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal) that the Royals were open to trading for a closer this offseason to boost their bullpen, which ranked 29th in ERA and 27th in WHIP a season ago.
Schreiber isn’t a closer, and the trade package was a modest one (more on that later). That being said, it shows that the Royals wanted to add one more proven piece to their bullpen this offseason and weren’t exactly satisfied with the options remaining on the market. Thankfully for the Royals, they did not have to DFA anyone to clear space for Schreiber, as they simply added Kyle Wright on the 60-day IL as the corresponding move (Wright is expected to miss all of 2024).
The trade has been a bit polarizing on social media, as some like the Royals getting a proven piece to add to the bullpen while others dislike the fact that the Royals traded an intriguing prospect to acquire a reliever. ESPN prospect analyst Kiley McDaniel, who’s been a vocal critic of the Royals system this offseason, unsurprisingly bashed the move on X.
So what should Royals fans think about this trade? In this post, I share three takeaways that I have about the deal and how it could impact the Royals in 2024 and beyond.
Royals Get Proven, Controllable Reliever in Schreiber
Schreiber is a bit on the older side as he will turn 30 on March 5th. However, he has been worth 1.9 fWAR over the past two seasons, and he has a career ERA of 3.58 in 143.1 IP, according to Fangraphs. Furthermore, Schreiber also sports a career K/BB ratio of 3.11, which is a boost to a Royals bullpen that has struggled in that category since 2018 (they rank last in K/BB ratio over that timespan).
Originally drafted by the Tigers in the 15th round in 2016, he seemed to come around in the Red Sox organization, especially in 2022 when he posted a 2.22 ERA and saved eight games in 64 appearances and 65 IP. He also accumulated a 1.8 fWAR that year and sported an FIP of 2.50, which showed how legitimate that campaign was for him with the Red Sox.
Schreiber did unfortunately regress a bit last year.
He not only saw his ERA rise to 3.86 in 46 appearances, but he also only posted an FIP of 4.52 and an fWAR of 0.1. A big contributor to his rough 2023 was a right teres major strain that kept him out for nearly two months (May to July). Thus, it will be interesting to see how healthy Schreiber is when he comes to the Royals camp in Surprise.
Thankfully, early reports from the Red Sox camp regarding Schreiber’s health have been positive, and it seems like Schreiber was well-liked in the Boston clubhouse.
Even though Schreiber’s stats took a step back in 2023, his pitch quality metrics via PLV have remained pretty consistent over the past couple of years. Here’s a look at his PLV numbers from both 2022 and 2023, and it’s promising to see that there isn’t much regression in his 2023 PLV pitch metrics from the previous season.
The four-seamer, sinker, and changeup took some small steps back in terms of PLV in 2023. However, the slider greatly improved, as it generated a 5.41 PLV last year, which was 31 points better than his slider PLV mark in 2022.
Therefore, the Royals may have gotten a steal in a guy like Schreiber who could slide into spot save opportunities and see his numbers bump back up to his 2022 levels if he’s fully healthy.
Of course, at 30 years old, that’s always going to be a question mark (health issues tend to go up as a pitcher gets older). That said, Schreiber’s pitch quality and stuff from the past two years should make Royals fans hopeful that positive regression should be on the way in 2024.
Expect the Royals to Be Transactional With Bullpen
With Schreiber’s acquisition, Roster Resource projects that Schreiber will replace Steven Cruz in the Royals’ Opening Day bullpen. I am a big fan of Cruz (as I wrote about in a post this offseason), but he struggled with some control issues in his MLB debut, and I think he could use some seasoning in Triple-A Omaha to begin the year.
Here’s a look at the pitchers on the 40-man roster who Roster Resource projects to be “available” in Triple-A to begin the season. These pitchers could either be pure relievers or starter/reliever hybrid types.
- Daniel Lynch, LHP
- Jonathan Bowlan, RHP
- Anthony Veneziano, LHP
- Alec Marsh, RHP
- Angel Zerpa, LHP
- Will Klein, RHP
- Steven Cruz, RHP
- Jake Brentz, LHP
And that’s just pitchers on the 40-man roster. The Royals also have non-roster invitees like Dan Altavilla, Tyler Duffey, Sam Long, and Luis Cessa who could have an impact on the Royals bullpen in 2024 should they have strong Cactus League campaigns.
Even though the Royals bullpen is certainly upgraded from a year ago, I don’t imagine that Picollo will stay pat with the current projected Opening Day group. I would expect that Picollo and manager Matt Quatraro will utilize a lot of options and mix and match different reliever combinations depending on the length of the homestand/road trip and matchups. That was something the Rays were known to do, and I figure Q will continue to utilize that strategy in his second year in Kansas City.
Hence, should the Royals bullpen get affected by injury, there are at least some reinforcements in Triple-A on the 40-man roster that Royals fans can feel confident about. Marsh, Cruz, Bowlan, Zerpa, Veneziano, and Lynch all showed flashes of promise with the Royals last season, and they can fill in easily, should something happen to any of the veterans currently in the Royals bullpen.
Losing Sandlin a Challenging Dilemma for the Royals (And Fans)
Without a doubt, it’s not easy to see the Royals deal away prospects, especially one with as much promise as Sandlin. Picollo mentioned that to Anne Rogers and the Royals media shortly after the trade was made official.
Still, it seems like the deal at the surface seems counterintuitive to what the Royals should be doing (or at least against the grain of what “rebuilding” teams should be doing). The Royals have a farm system that ranks near the bottom of the league according to most experts (including McDaniel). They lost 106 games in 2023. Ideally, the Royals should be trading away veterans for prospects, not the other way around.
McDaniel continued to echo that in a reply to his original Tweet.
Where I disagree with McDaniel here is that essentially acting as if Sandlin is a guaranteed MLB starting pitcher. If the Royals system was as bad as hints, then Sandlin should be the Royals’ Top prospect, not fifth. Sandlin should also be at least an honorable mention Top-100 prospect if he really believes that he’s a “controllable SP”, not one that isn’t even sniffing that range.
That’s where I get upset and frustrated with prospect experts. It’s one thing to dump on the Royals system. The Royals certainly deserve it, even though I think they’ve made some strides in the past couple of years.
However, I believe there should be consistency with a take on a team’s system.
If a team’s system is bad, then getting anything of value for a pitching prospect, including a reliever with three more years of team control, should be celebrated. It’s not like the Royals are only going to get one year of value from Schreiber. Besides, he could also have some trade value at this year’s or next year’s Trade Deadline and he could net not just something similar to Sandlin’s value but perhaps more if he bounces back as expected.
As for McDaniel’s take that “FA RP are everywhere/cheap”? Schreiber is going to make $1.175 million this year. That’s just slightly above what Josh Taylor and Carlos Hernandez will make this year.
Furthermore, take a look at which relievers are available via Spotrac. Any free agent of note remaining is likely going to command more on an AAV end than what Schreiber is making this year. The only ones worth watching on the free-agent market right now are Ryne Stanek and Matt Barnes and they are going to command double of what Schreiber is making and will only have a year or two of team control, tops.
Lastly, I also think the excitement about Sandlin’s potential is great, but his development is a success story that the Royals aren’t getting enough credit for.
Sandlin was an 11th-round draft pick who only had one year of starting experience at Oklahoma (which didn’t go well; he posted a 5.59 ERA in 95 IP). The Royals basically have helped turn him into one of the organization’s Top-20 prospects, which would’ve been unthinkable when he was drafted in 2022.
Additionally, a lot of people are thinking that the Red Sox organization is going to automatically make him “even better” because he’s coming from Kansas City to Boston. However, I question the Red Sox’s track record in developing starting pitching prospects, even with a new club president. It’s funny how the Royals continue to get dogged by their pitching development history, but the same can’t happen for an organization like the Red Sox whose history of developing starting pitchers is just as shaky.
Preston Farr of “Farm to Fountains” went into a deeper dive into this issue and the ghosts of the Royals’ past farm system failures that they can’t seem to shake no matter what they do. The issue with this too is that it forces us to root for Sandlin to fail as Royals fans to justify this deal. That is unfair to Sandlin, who was fun to watch in Columbia and was expected to break out in 2024, especially after a lot of hard work this offseason.
I get that as Royals fans, especially hardcore ones, we get overly connected and protective of prospects in our system. At the same time, that was a major downfall of Dayton Moore’s regime. We held onto guys for far too long. Jackson Kowar is a prime example of this, as Royals fans continued to think he was going to be the “next big thing” for years until he proved that he wasn’t last season and was finally traded away this offseason.
At least Picollo is willing to be more aggressive early on in those kinds of prospects careers, even if may backfire down the road.
However, Picollo is at least consistent in his goals for this year: to start to compete in the AL Central in 2024.
Schreiber fits into that goal much better than Sandlin at this time.
Photo Credit: Nick Cammett/Getty Images
The Royals Reporter 
[…] John Schreiber has become a middle-inning specialist who can induce groundballs and escape jams. According to Baseball Savant, Schreiber’s xBA allowed ranks in the 85th percentile, and his GB percentage ranks in the 92nd percentile. Being able to succeed in those categories is precisely why the Royals were willing to part with pitching prospect David Sandlin this offseason. […]
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