The Royals begin a six-game road trip this evening. They will start with a three-game slate against the New York Mets over the weekend and then follow that up with a three-game set against the White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field on the South Side.
Most experts picked the Royals to finish fourth in the division. They have gotten off to a sensational 9-4 start to the season, highlighted by a 7-0 homestand that included sweeps of the White Sox and Astros.
While the starting pitching has received much positive attention, the Royals’ hitting to begin the year has also been a big reason why the club is sitting in second place in the AL Central, just 0.5 games behind the first-place Guardians as of Friday evening.
The Kansas City offense has gotten production from all over the lineup. Maikel Garcia is starting to have a bit of a breakout, with three home runs already this year (he had four all last season). Nelson Velazquez and MJ Melendez are becoming run-producers in the middle of the lineup. And lastly, Vinnie Pasquantino is beginning to snap out of a slump he was mired in early on in the 2024 season.
However, one concern remains in the Royals lineup: Hunter Renfroe.
Yes, Adam Frazier hasn’t exactly been tearing it up (though he does have a .355 OBP as of Friday, which helps soften the blow of his .231 average and slugging). That said, he was always seen as a temporary solution.
Michael Massey was projected to be the Royals’ Opening Day second baseman until he injured himself near the end of Spring Training. With Massey getting at-bats in Omaha (and doing well), Massey will likely return to the Major League roster soon, which should lessen Frazier’s role in the lineup.
On the other hand, Renfroe was signed to be an everyday right fielder/designated hitter for the Royals, and unfortunately, the results have not been stellar, to say the least.
As of Friday, Renfroe’s slash line is .171/.237/.286, with an OPS of .523 in 38 plate appearances. He hit his first home run of the year against Garrett Crochet and the White Sox on April 7th, but he hasn’t been producing much else. To make matters worse, his K rate is 26.3% (higher than his 22.8% K rate from 2023), and his hard-hit rate is down from 39.1% in 2023 to 36% in 2024.
Of course, it’s only 38 plate appearances, a small sample size at the other end of the day. So is this just a slump, and will Renfroe break out after he gets more plate appearances? After all, he got off to a late start in Spring Training due to some nagging injuries.
Or is this a sign that Renfroe may be nearing the end of his career? If so, what should the Royals do, especially as they continue to surprise the league in 2024?
Renfroe Traditionally a Slow Starter
Even though the Royals acquired some veteran talent to help get them off to a strong start in March and April, Renfroe doesn’t have an excellent track record in that category.
According to Fangraphs splits, Renfroe has a career wOBA of .304 and a 90 wRC+ in March and April. However, as seen in the table below, Renfroe turns it on in May.
Amazingly, March/April is the only month career-wise when Renfroe has been below average on a wRC+ mark. His best month historically has been May, as he has a career wOBA of .353 and a 122 wRC+. So even though Renfroe typically doesn’t start seasons well offensively, he has a history of turning things around in the second whole month of play, which ends up helping him produce overall solid months from June and afterward.
So what contributes to those lower stats in March/April compared to the rest of the season? A lot can be credited to how he hits the ball in March/April.
According to Fangraphs’ batted ball splits, Renfroe tends to hit many more groundballs in the first month of play, suppressing his power production and overall hitting.
His career GB% in March/April is 41.6%, the highest rate in any month of play historically. His hard-hit rate is only 35.1% over that period, which is also his lowest mark.
So what does it look like this year?
He’s not only posting a 47 wRC+, but his GB% is 44%, and his hard-hit rate is only 20%. So he’s below those career trends in this first month of play, which isn’t promising.
However, it’ll be interesting to see if anything rebounds and what the final numbers look like by the end of April.
Thus, Royals fans should wait until at least mid-May to see if Renfroe’s current actions are in line with his career numbers or genuinely abnormal.
What Other Options Are There?
On the active roster, the other players who could man the right-field position are Dairon Blanco, Garrett Hampson, and Nick Loftin. Velazquez could be an everyday RF, but his power (and mediocre fielding) serves better at the DH spot than Blanco, Hampson, and Loftin.
Thus, if the Royals want a replacement in RF for Renfroe, it must come up from Triple-A Omaha.
Possible options on the 40-man roster include Nick Pratto, Tyler Gentry, and Drew Waters.
Pratto would obviously play more DH and 1B (with him and Vinnie rotating those duties and Velazquez being an everyday RF in this scenario). However, despite having a sensational Cactus League campaign, Pratto is off to a slow start in Omaha. As of Friday, he is only hitting .217 with a .594 OPS.
Gentry is off to a similar start. He is currently hitting .143 with a .421 OPS, which is even worse than Pratto (even though he could play more RF than Pratto).
Waters, on the other hand, has been exceptional so far in Omaha. He is hitting .371 with a 1.065 OPS and is coming off a big game against Gwinett on Thursday.
In 34 at-bats with the Storm Chasers, Waters has a home run, 9 RBI, 7 runs scored, and 2 SB. He has three walks to 10 strikeouts, a 0.30 BB/K ratio. On the other hand, if Waters can flash that combo of power, speed, and stellar RF defense, then the Royals will be more than willing to stomach his plate discipline issues (especially at the bottom of the lineup).
Right now, if anyone on the 40-man roster will unseat Renfroe from his spot as the everyday RF, Waters would be the most sensible choice, even if it may take until June.
What Will Renfroe’s Timeline in Kansas City Be?
The Royals signed Renfroe to a two-year, $13 million deal, with the second year being a player option.
I am not sure of the exact structure of how Renfroe is to be paid, but Renfroe’s deal is essentially a one-year deal with the ability to be a two-year one if the Royals keep Renfroe through the end of the year.
Renfroe has more power in this deal and can exercise his player option. It would be interesting to see what that option and his contract status would look like if the Royals selected him for assignment at some point and if another team picked him up.
Even if the Royals have to be on the hook for next year, wherever he should play, the Royals under JJ Picollo and owner John Sherman have shown a tolerance for eating a player’s contract if that player is hugely detrimental to the team’s production.
Case in point: the Royals are still paying Hunter Dozier $9.25 million this year, even though he was released last May.
Now, will the Royals act quicker with Renfore than Dozier? Much depends on the Royals still winning like they are and how Waters, Pratto, and Gentry perform in Omaha. Regarding the former, Fangraphs seems optimistic about Kansas City’s ROY projection regarding wins and losses.
If those three are forcing the issue and the Royals are still in the division’s hunt by June, Picollo may be forced to give one (or two) of those three a shot sooner rather than later, even if it comes at the expense of Renfroe.
I always viewed Renfroe as a temporary option who would either be traded by the August Trade Deadline or released. It doesn’t seem wise or necessary to keep Renfroe on this roster for long, especially in 2025.
Then again, should this poor performance continue in May and maybe June, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the latter happening with Renfroe, much to the dismay of Royals fans, who were optimistic that Renfroe could bounce back after a rough 2023 campaign. (Or to the satisfaction of Royals fans who kept advocating for Edward Olivares, who is off to a solid start with the Pittsburgh Pirates this year.)
Regardless, I hope Waters, Gentry, or Pratto get a shot at the Major League level sooner than July, regardless of Renfroe’s status on the Royals’ active roster.
Photo Credit: William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports
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