On Sunday, the Royals lost 2-1 to the New York Mets. The loss clinched the series for the Mets and was the first Royals series loss since their first road series of the year in Baltimore.
After winning seven in a row in the last homestand, including sweeps of the White Sox and the Astros, the Mets series was a sobering reminder that the Royals aren’t guaranteed a World Series, postseason, or even winning season.
Are the Royals much better than they were a year ago? Absolutely.
How much better, though? That is to be determined, and we still have 146 games to go in 2024.
After facing a competitive Mets team on the road and coming up just short, what are some questions and takeaways Royals fans may have about this team going forward, especially as they play another series against the White Sox (but this time on the South Side)?
One question that has been circulating among Royals fans on Twitter (or X) is this:
Do the Royals need to move Maikel Garcia off the leadoff spot, especially after another rough day at the plate on Sunday?
Let’s examine Garcia’s struggles, some alternatives, and what manager Matt Quatraro should do with this Royals lineup going forward.
Is Garcia The Answer at Leadoff?
In the first couple of series of the year, it seemed like Garcia was poised for a breakout. I talked about his slight change in batted ball approach on “Farm to Fountains” and felt he could hit 15+ HR this year and steal 20+ bases in 2024.
However, since the conclusion of the Orioles series, Garcia has seen his OPS go from 1.096 to .601 (entering Monday’s game against the White Sox). In the Mets series alone, he went 0-for-13 with one walk and five strikeouts. It’s been a rough stretch for Garcia, who’s struggled to set the tone at the leadoff spot like he did a season ago.
Garcia’s overall outlook at the Major League level still offers much to be optimistic about. If Royals fans look at his Savant profile, he still is in the upper percentiles in most categories, including hard-hit rate, barrel rate, xBA, and xwOBA.
While his K% and BB% leave a bit to be desired (25% and 5.6%, respectively), he is not chasing a lot (83rd percentile), so Garcia has been in the top spot in the batting order.
Despite this tough stretch, even those outside the Royals’ fanbase are still optimistic about his outlook for the 2024 season.
Nonetheless, should Quatraro consider changing the batting order to relieve Garcia’s pressure at the plate?
Quatraro did that with Bobby Witt, Jr., a season ago after Witt’s rough first month in the leadoff spot in 2023. Witt got into a groove after a difficult start, and now he’s a legitimate MVP candidate in his third season in the league.
Would moving down in the order help Garcia? Perhaps, but his career batting order splits don’t exactly show a place in the order where Garcia has hit better.
Based on the limited data, Garcia’s best “spots” in the batting order based on wRC+ are 2nd, 8th, and cleanup. However, he has only 61 career plate appearances in those three spots combined, a far cry from his 394 career plate appearances in the leadoff spot.
A big problem for Garcia thus far to begin the season is that opposing pitchers exploit Garcia on the strike zone’s outer edges.
That strategy could be due to Garcia focusing on pulling the ball more in 2024. Nonetheless, his lowest swing rate is on pitches on the outside edge of the strike zone. Conversely, his highest strikeout rate is in pitches in that area of the strike zone, which can be seen in the zone charts below via Savant.
Based on the data and simple observation of his at-bats, Garcia may be too passive at the plate.
Of course, that was his strength as a prospect in the Royals system. He produced low K rates and decent walk rates from rookie ball to Triple-A, which resulted in excellent BB/K ratios in the Minors. Good BB/K ratios are typically due to good plate discipline, which the Royals would want in a leadoff hitter.
On the other hand, pitchers in the Minor Leagues have worse control than Major League ones. Consequently, his overly patient approach has resulted in much lower BB/K ratios in the Majors, which can be seen in the table below via Fangraphs.
It would be interesting to see where Garcia would fit if moved around the Royals’ batting order. Despite his massive struggles, he’s still a talented player who deserves everyday at-bats.
That said, would Quatraro look to move him lower in the batting order to take some of the pressure off and help spark the 7-8-9 spots, which have also seen some struggles recently?
I guess a lot depends on who Quatraro would tab to be the Royals’ new leadoff hitter.
Who Would Fit in the Leadoff Spot for the Royals (If Not Garcia)?
Regarding any leadoff hitter, teams typically want one who displays the following characteristics:
They don’t chase much, strike out much, and walk a decent amount. Furthermore, it helps when they have a bit of speed so they can score runs when the hitters behind them in the batting order put the ball in play.
Let’s look at Royals hitters ranked by chase rate thus far, as of April 15th, via Fangraphs.
Garcia ranks pretty well in this category, as he has the fourth-lowest chase rate of Royals hitters with 10 or more plate appearances this year. Other enticing options include Nick Loftin, MJ Melendez, and Adam Frazier, who all sport chase rates under 30%.
It is also essential to look at contact rates when evaluating possible leadoff candidates for the Royals. Melendez’s 70% contact rate is pretty low, which makes it hard to depend on him as a leadoff hitter if pitchers are raiding the strike zone. Furthermore, Garcia and Loftin’s sports contact rates are below 80%, which isn’t bad but not ideal for a guy expected to set the table at the top of the lineup.
The guy with the best contact rate and chase rate combination is Frazier, who’s typically batted in the seven-hole for the Royals this season.
Now, Frazier doesn’t chase and makes contact at a high rate. However, does he maximize the walks and limit the strikeouts?
Let’s take a look via Fangraphs.
Well, Frazier wins in this category again. Granted, he and Loftin are producing similar BB/K ratios. However, Frazier is slightly higher, and Frazier actually strikes out somewhat less than Loftin, which is also a significant plus.
Dairon Blanco surprisingly also fared well in the “leadoff hitter” metrics, but he has only 10 plate appearances this year and one start. Royals fans may need a few more games to get a real sense of whether his profile fits in the leadoff spot.
However, Frazier could fit the bill as the Royals’ leadoff hitter, especially for now, as Michael Massey continues his rehab assignment in Omaha. Based on what MLB.com Royals beat writer Anne Rogers is reporting, it’s likely that Massey may need at least a couple of more weeks in Omaha before making his 2024 Royals debut.
A switch of Frazier and Garcia in the batting order could help give the Royals a guy who can get on base frequently at the top of the lineup and help Garcia turn things around offensively.
Final Thoughts on the Royals Leadoff Situation
To be frank, where hitters hit in the batting order can be overrated. Ultimately, one wants the best hitters at the top of the lineup and the worst at the bottom. Witt isn’t suddenly going to tank if he’s in the leadoff, like he did when he was in the spot in 2023.
That said, managers also want to put players in positions where they are comfortable, and Bobby certainly has looked that in the two holes over the past two seasons. Disrupting that flow now would be unwise, especially with the Royals 10-6 going into Monday’s game against the White Sox.
Nonetheless, a mix-up should probably happen for the Royals. Not necessarily to jolt the lineup as a whole but rather to help boost Garcia’s confidence, who has definitely been letting the pressure of being the Royals’ leadoff hitter get to him since the first White Sox series at home.
The good news for the Royals is that I could see a scenario in which Garcia could return to the leadoff spot if he can regain his confidence.
Regarding the combo of plate patience, speed, and power potential, Garcia embodies not just an ideal leadoff hitter but one who could be a good one for a long time (especially with his defensive ability, which gives him more value). That can be especially true if he habitually elevates the ball, like in this clip below.
Nonetheless, Quatraro and the Royals need to balance the short and long term here with this Royals team, especially with all the positive momentum they have built in the first 16 games of the year. Putting in someone like Frazier (or even Loftin) at the short-term leadoff spot and moving Garcia down to the 6th or 7th spot in the batting order could be a win-win in both areas.
The Royals need more win-win situations, especially if they want to build a winner in 2024 and beyond this season.
Photo Credit: Ed Zurga/Getty Images