On Sunday afternoon, the Royals announced on Twitter that they would be re-signing Michael Wacha to a three-year deal with a club option for the 2028 season.
According to MLB.com Royals beat writer Anne Rogers, Kansas City will pay Wacha roughly $51 million over the first three years with a $14 million club option in the fourth year. The first two years are a bit front-loaded, as he will make $18 million in 2025 and 2026.
Wacha had until Monday to exercise his $16.5 million player option, as any player with options had until tomorrow before they would become a free agent. Even though the Royals could have negotiated a deal with Wacha after Monday, getting a deal ironed out over the weekend demonstrated how much of a priority bringing back the 33-year-old right-hander was for the club this offseason.
With Wacha’s return to Kansas City for at least the 2025 season official, let’s look at three takeaways I had from the deal regarding the right-hander and the Royals rotation plan for the upcoming year.
Wacha’s Return Adds Stability to Royals Rotation
There’s no question that Wacha had a career season in 2024 with the Royals.
His 166.2 IP was the most innings in a season since 2015 with the St. Louis Cardinals, and his 3.3 fWAR was a career-high. He also posted a 3.35 ERA in 2024 with Kansas City, the third-straight season he had posted an ERA under 3.40. According to Royals broadcaster Jake Eisenberg, that stat line put him in a unique group in MLB history.
Even though he certainly won’t get the same kind of buzz as Burnes, Valdes, or Webb, Wacha proved last year that he is one of the more dependable starters in the game. The fact that manager Matt Quatraro also relied on Wacha in games one and four of the ALDS against the Yankees shows the trust and confidence in Wacha and his ability on the mound, even though he was primarily a No. 3 starter last season.
The Royals will still rely on “aces” Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo, who produced fWAR marks of 4.9 and 4.7 last season, respectively. However, Wacha’s return gives the Royals some much-needed depth in the rotation, especially if regression or injury hit Ragans or Lugo next year. Wacha is probably not a true “ace” at this point in his career, but he certainly is a better option to ascend in that role temporarily than Brady Singer, the Royals No. 4 starter in 2024.
Furthermore, Wacha’s pitch quality improved in 2024, demonstrating his ability to adapt to the Royals’ pitching coaches and culture.
Wacha improved his overall PLV by 16 points, and he also saw improvements on the changeup (25 points), four-seamer (25 points), sinker (12 points), curve (two points), and cutter (19 points). He also introduced a slider in 2024, which he threw nine percent of the time. It posted modest PLV numbers (4.86 PLV, his worst pitch on a PLV end), but he could likely see some improvement on the pitch with some additional work and tweaking with the offering this offseason and Spring Training.
In addition to his solid pitch quality and arsenal, Wacha’s return also gives the rotation the veteran boost that helped the group’s overall chemistry last season. It was common for the Royals pitchers to break things down as a group after pitchers were pulled from a game, and other pitchers on the Royals roster mentioned the benefit of Wacha’s perspective in the clubhouse.
I expect the Royals starters to continue having productive group meetings in the dugout in the later innings of each day next year.
Wacha Valued Years Over Dollar Amount in Deal
As Rogers mentioned in her breakdown, Wacha will be making $18 million in 2025 and 2026 with the Royals and at least $14 million in 2027, with the opportunity to earn more if he hits specific benchmarks. The amount in 2025 would be a $1.5 million increase from what he would’ve made had he opted into his player option from his previous deal.
According to Spotrac, Wacha’s market value this offseason was around $20.3 million, which would’ve been close to the Qualifying Offer amount of $21.5 million this season. Thus, the Royals could’ve offered Wacha that Qualifying Offer number (and getting draft pick compensation if he signed with another team) or perhaps a two-year deal in the $20 million AAV range, giving Wacha a higher annual amount.
Instead, Wacha opted to remain in Kansas City on a deal that would essentially guarantee $17 million in AAV over three years. That demonstrates that years and security mattered more to Wacha in the negotiation process than the dollar amount per season.
Royals GM JJ Picollo deserves credit for negotiating a deal that satisfied Wacha’s desire for a multi-year contract, and the Royals’ rotation needs without breaking the bank.
Furthermore, the Royals owner, John Sherman, deserves much credit here.
Royals fans gave Sherman a lot of grief in his first few seasons as owner (2019-2022) for keeping the payroll low and trying to get public funding for a new stadium last April. However, since the previous offseason, Sherman has shown that he is a much different owner than the previous one, David Glass, known for being extremely cheap during his tenure (he was CEO since 1993 and sole owner since 2000, up until selling the team to Sherman in 2019).
Sherman allowed Picollo to make aggressive moves last offseason to help boost the rotation and bring in more veterans to a team that lost 106 games in 2023. This season, he gave Picollo the flexibility to bring Wacha back and give the pitcher the guaranteed third year (and club option for the fourth) that solidified his return.
According to Roster Resource, the Royals’ projected payroll for 2025 is $122 million, an $8 million increase from last season. It’s hard to see Glass approve that increase, even after an appearance in the postseason.
This probably won’t be the Royals’ only move this offseason. I expect the Royals to continue to be aggressive in signing free agents and making trades.
This is a different kind of Royals franchise under Sherman and Picollo, and as a Royals fan, I’m all for it.
Wacha Extension Makes Brady Singer Expendable
The Royals already have much-needed rotation depth for 2025 without making any moves in free agency.
As of now, the Royals will return Ragans, Lugo, Wacha, and Singer. They also will have Kyle Wright, Alec Marsh, Noah Cameron, and possibly Chandler Champlain battle for the No. 5 spot in the rotation in Spring Training. Kris Bubic was phenomenal in the bullpen in 2024, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see Bubic perhaps return to the rotation, especially if he shows progress in Spring Training.
That kind of depth, combined with the Royals’ expected moves to boost the pitching staff in free agency (it wouldn’t be surprising to see Michael Lorenzen return), could make Singer a possible trade candidate this offseason.
Singer is under team control for at least two seasons (he will be a free agent after 2026), so there is no rush for the Royals to trade him. He also is coming off a solid bounce-back season after a rough 2023 campaign. In 32 starts and 179.2 IP, Singer posted a 3.71 ERA, 3.93 FIP, and 2.5 fWAR. Those are solid numbers for a pitcher near the bottom of the rotation.
However, he is expected to command around $8.8 million in the arbitration process this offseason, a considerable pay bump from 2024 (he made $4.85 million last season). He also had a pretty arduous arbitration process after the 2022 season, and Picollo and the Royals may not want to go through that again this winter.
The Royals could trade Singer away this offseason and perhaps acquire someone who could fill another roster need, or they could also receive important prospect capital to help boost their farm system depth.
One trade destination could be Milwaukee, which declined a $10.5 million club option on closer Devin Williams. Williams remains in the organization but will go to arbitration, where the Brewers hope to agree to a deal with him that is around $1.5-2 million cheaper.
The Brewers are known for maxing out the value of their starters through their pitching development team. They could see potential in Singer and help him take an even more significant step forward in 2025 in Milwaukee. Furthermore, the Brewers are more comfortable going year to year with starting pitchers in arbitration, as evidenced by their previous negotiations with Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff.
As for the Royals, they could receive an elite closer to bolster a Royals bullpen that looked much stronger in the last month of the season. A bullpen with Williams, Bubic, Lucas Erceg, Hunter Harvey, Daniel Lynch IV, John Schreiber, Sam Long, and Angel Zerpa could be one of the deepest in baseball.
Kansas City could acquire Williams and perhaps agree to a modest extension over a two-to-three-year span. Williams only pitched 21.1 innings due to injury in 2024. However, he saved 14 games, produced a 1.25 ERA and 2.08 xERA, and showed solid PLV metrics on his four-seamer and changeup.
Additionally, Williams’s only remaining guaranteed year of club control could net the Royals a lower-level prospect or two, boosting their farm system.
The Royals had some success with former Brewers prospect Cam Devanney, acquired in the Taylor Clarke trade last offseason. Devanney hit 19 home runs and produced a 102 wRC+ in Triple-A Omaha last season. Due to his surprising bat and positional versatility, he could be added to the 40-man roster.
Williams for Singer could be a pipedream for now, especially with the Brewers not making their plans with Williams especially clear now.
That said, Wacha’s return allows Picollo and the Royals to be more creative with Singer and his big-league future.
Photo Credit: AP Photo/Frank Franklin II
I have argued previously that, given the projected makeup of the ’25 Royals’ rotation, Wacha would have to be crazy to leave. He is about a 3.75 to 4.0 career ERA pitcher who is on the wrong side of 30. If he goes to a weaker team, he may be higher in the rotation and be paired against pitchers more likely than him to pitch a quality start. His W-L record would suffer.
At KC, Ragans is at #1 for now. Lugo and Wright can go 2 & 3 as IMPO they match better. Wacha should be dominant as a #4. If we assume a Lorenzen signing, and keep Singer, they and Marsh can do a #5 by committee. In an extreme case, late in the season and facing an important series, you could start the more rested two and have a well rested Lugo and Wright. The only drawback I see is that the three-headed monster is all rightly.
Wacha at #4 may actually reach the 6th and 7th inning within his acceptable pitch-count, and improve his record by 3 or 4 wins/year. In three years, with three better seasons under his belt, and, hopefully, a couple of world series under his belt, he will have another premium free-agent payday.
I totally could see that mindset from Wacha in free agency and why he returned to KC. I do think he could’ve netted as much, if not more, with another club and also a larger role in the rotation. But as you said, he would be much more exposed as a No. 1 or 2. Being a No. 3 or 4 is a lot less pressure and his numbers will perform a lot better (plus as you said, he’ll conserve himself more over the course of the year).
The fact that the Royals seem pretty set with at least three starters, maybe four if Wright can look like ’22 Wright, is a luxury that should help the Royals continue to compete in ’25 and beyond.
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