The Royals take on the Yankees in game one of the American League Division Series at 5:08 p.m. this afternoon in the Bronx. The Yankees have won five of seven against the Royals this season, but in their most recent September series, Kansas City beat the Yankees 5-0 in game two and lost on a walk-off in extra innings in game three.
In the first game of the ALDS, the Royals will be leaning on Michael Wacha, who didn’t appear in the AL Wild Card round (due to the Royals sweeping the three-game series). Manager Matt Quatraro opted to go with Wacha’s experience and recent success for the start today over Brady Singer, who’s moved to the bullpen in the postseason, or Alec Marsh, who didn’t make the postseason roster.
Wacha has had a sensational season with the Royals this season. In 29 starts and 166.2 IP, Wacha has a 3.35 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. He also has a 3.65 FIP, 3.22 K/BB ratio, and 3.3 fWAR, the latter being a career-high.
The Royals want to set the tone in game one of the ALDS, especially in a five-game series. Winning at least one in New York could allow the Royals to clinch the series back in Kansas City at Kauffman Stadium next week.
A solid game one start from Wacha would be a step in the right direction toward that goal.
Let’s examine Wacha’s profile, how he compares to the Yankees, and what could be essential for him and the Royals in their matchup against Yankees ace Gerrit Cole on Saturday.
Wacha’s Changeup and Four-Seamer Will Be Key
Wacha sports a six-pitch mix that he’s utilized effectively throughout the year. On a Stuff+ end, his mix rates slightly below average at 91, the fourth-best mark of Royals starting pitchers with five or more IP this season.
Wacha on a Stuff+ end ranks behind Cole Ragans, Alec Marsh, and Seth Lugo. Conversely, he’s been slightly better than Michael Lorenzen (90) and Singer (84), which further justifies Wacha getting the start today against a potent Yankees lineup.
On a Stuff+ end, Wacha’s best pitch is his changeup, which has a 111 mark. That is the second-best changeup of Royals starting pitchers, only three points behind Ragans.
Wacha’s changeup rates are even better on a PLV end, as seen below in his PLV arsenal distribution chart from this season.
His changeup ranks near the 99th percentile of the league with a 5.95 mark. The offspeed pitch also props up his overall PLV to 5.28, which is in the 85th percentile via Pitcher List. After the changeup, though, only the four-seamer is above the 50th percentile regarding PLV.
Here’s how Wacha’s arsenal profiles on an induced movement end this season.
The changeup has a wide range of movement, which makes it challenging for opposing hitters to prepare or recognize the pitch. There’s a range of nearly 20 inches in vertical break with the pitch and almost 10 inches in horizontal break variety. Add that with a four-seamer that can sport similar movement, and one can understand why Wacha sports a hard-hit rate that ranks in the 92nd percentile this season.
Wacha finds success against left-handed batters when he effectively sequences the four-seamer and changeup. That is especially true when there can be a nearly 15 MPH difference, as demonstrated in this clip compilation below.
The changeup can also succeed against right-handed hitters, especially against aggressive ones trying to protect with two strikes or expecting a fastball. That was the case in May when Wacha could locate the changeup just outside the strike zone glove side and got Tampa’s Harold Ramirez to strike out swinging.
The slider rates decently on a Stuff+ end at 97 but not so much on a PLV end at 4.86, which ranks in the 7th percentile via Pitcher List. His cutter, curve, and slider are change-of-pace pitches at the end of the day, as he throws them all individually less than 13% of the time.
The cutter has been the most effective of the three, evidenced by his 5.16 PLV and 51.8% Zone%. The pitch is located effectively and shows above-average extension and movement based on the pitch characteristics via PLV.
Despite the sneaky characteristics of his cutter, Wacha will need to effectively command his four-seamer and changeup, his two primary pitches, to neutralize the Yankees lineup today.
How Does Wacha Look Historically Against the Yankees?
Wacha didn’t get to pitch against the Yankees this year in any capacity. However, he has a solid history of success against the Yankees via Baseball-Reference splits.
The metric that sticks out the most is his 3.53 K/BB ratio in 57.2 IP. For the Royals to be victorious against the Yankees, Wacha needs to limit the free passes on the basepaths, especially in a homer-friendly ballpark like Yankees Stadium.
Another positive sign for Wacha is his encouraging track record against Aaron Judge. However, most of his outings against the Yankees franchise player were in 2021 and 2022, when Wacha was a member of the Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox, respectively.
The key for Wacha will be getting past Judge and Juan Soto and not allowing other hitters in the Yankees’ lineup to have a big game. The Yankees released their lineup just recently, and it looks like New York will choose slugger Giancarlo Stanton and utility man Oswaldo Cabrera over first baseman Ben Rice.
Suppose Soto and Judge have good but not great games and the rest of the Yankees lineup is kept in check. In that case, it’s possible Wacha could be adding another postseason win to his resume, which has looked a bit thin recently after some early postseason success with St. Louis.
Hopefully, Wacha can turn that recent postseason narrative around with a solid (and hopefully winning) outing in the Bronx on Saturday.
What About Gerrit Cole for the Yankees?
The Royals will use this lineup today, identical to the one Quatraro utilized in game one of the AL Wild Card against the Orioles.
The big question for the Royals lineup is this:
Can they score more runs against the Yankees than the three they scored in two games in Baltimore?
Cole won’t be an easy challenge, though he’s undoubtedly seen some regression from his previous seasons.
The six-time All-Star started the season late due to recovery from an elbow injury and was limited to only 95 innings. In those 17 starts, he posted a 3.41 ERA and 1.13 WHP, not as impressive as the 2.63 ERA and 0.98 WHIP he had in 209 IP in 2023. He also saw a 1.6% decline in K% and a 1.6% increase in walk rate, which isn’t encouraging for Yankees fans.
Here’s how his PLV arsenal has been rated over the past two seasons.
Cole has increased his cutter usage by nine percent, which makes sense as it is a pitch that has dramatically improved in quality since 2023. His cutter has a 5.44 PLV, a 43-point increase from a season ago. His overall PLV of 5.22 is only 6 points lower than his 2023 PLV, which shows that Cole still has a quality arsenal.
The big difference is the decline in fastball PLV from 2023. His four-seamer had a 5.39 PLV in 2023, around the 95th percentile. This year? That PLV is 5.04, around the 60th percentile.
Below is a look at how Royals hitters have fared against four-seam fastballs this year on a run-value end via Savant.
Based on the data above, it makes sense why Quatraro went with Pham over Renfroe in right field.
Pham has a .394 xwOBA, 53.6% hard-hit rate, and a +2 run value against four-seamers. Conversely, Renfroe has a .357 xwOBA, 51.9% hard-hit rate, and 0 run value. Renfroe could be an option in later innings, especially since the Yankees bullpen tends to be fastball-heavy (though more cutters and sinkers than Cole).
Maikel Garcia, who has a -12 run value against four-seamer, still isn’t that much worse than Paul DeJong (-8), and he has a better hard-hit rate (55.5 to 54.5) and xwOBA (.335 to .291). Therefore, I don’t hate Garcia getting the nod over DeJong here, especially since Garcia is better defensively and on the bases.
For the Royals to have a chance in this one, they will need to do damage against Cole’s four-seamer, hopefully early in the game.
Getting more than two runs in this one will be needed to win in game one.
Photo: Mitch Stringer/USA TODAY Sports
[…] one of the more dependable starters in the game. The fact that manager Matt Quatraro also relied on Wacha in games one and four of the ALDS against the Yankees shows the trust and confidence in Wacha and his ability on the mound, even though he was primarily […]