Can Lorenzen Provide Stability to Royals Staff? (Especially if Wacha Doesn’t Return?)

In my last post, I discussed Tommy Pham and why the Royals may consider bringing him back on a one-year deal for the upcoming 2025 season.

In this post, I will look at Michael Lorenzen, whom the Royals acquired from the Rangers at the Trade Deadline last July. Much like Pham, Lorenzen will be a free agent this offseason, and he presents a tricky situation for the Royals, especially with their desire to build pitching depth at the Major League level next year.

Let’s examine Lorenzen’s 2024 with the Royals, why JJ Picollo could consider bringing him back, and what roadblocks could prevent a Lorenzen return in 2025.

Lorenzen Flourished With Royals (Until Injury)

Lorenzen began the season with the Texas Rangers and was perfectly serviceable in 19 appearances and 18 starts. In 101.2 IP, he posted a 3.81 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 0.3 fWAR.

Of course, there were some concerns when he came over from Texas. His FIP was high at 5.17, and he also had a 12.8% HR/FB rate and K/BB ratio of 1.56. He only had a 25.2% CSW, which is okay but not eye-popping for a hybrid pitcher type.

However, Lorenzen seemed to thrive under Royals pitching coaches Brian Sweeney and Zach Bove.

In seven appearances and six starts with the Royals last season, he posted a 1.57 ERA and 0.5 fWAR in 28.2 IP. He lowered his HR/FB rate to 5.9%, improved his K/BB ratio to 1.83, and saw a CSW bump to 27.4%.

A significant difference for Lorenzen in Kansas City was his increased use of the sweeper with the Royals from his time with Texas. The spike can be seen in August and September when he arrived in Kansas City after the Trade Deadline.

The sweeper wasn’t the only pitch to see increased usage with the Royals. His sinker and curveball also saw an uptick in August and September. However, his sweeper went from his least-used pitch for the first four months of the season to his third-most-used pitch by September.

Regarding the sweeper’s pitch quality via PLV, Lorenzen produced solid command and an above-average arm-side break on the offering.

Another key difference for Lorenzen’s sweeper was the increased velocity. In July with the Rangers, he only averaged 80.2 MPH with the pitch. The velocity increased to 82 MPH and 83.6 MPH in August and September, respectively. That can also be seen in the pitch velocity monthly chart below via Savant.

The Royals helped Lorenzen make the sweeper a higher-velocity and sharper breaking pitch. Notice the difference between the sweeper Lorenzen threw in July with the Rangers and the one he threw against the Angels at Kauffman in September.

Lorenzen benefits from a poor swing and effort from Chicago’s Luis Robert, Jr. In the other clip, Lorenzen fools Los Angeles’ Jack Lopez, sitting fastball and swings through Lorenzen’s 82 MPH sweeper.

Unfortunately, Lorenzen’s campaign with the Royals was shortened due to a hamstring injury suffered against the Guardians at the end of the season. One has to wonder what Lorenzen could have done for the Royals in the rotation if he was fully healthy at the end of the year and in the postseason.

Nonetheless, Lorenzen provided the Royals stability in the No. 5 spot in the rotation (Alec Marsh seemed to struggle in the role in the second half) and proved to be a long relief option in the playoffs when he returned from the IL.

Lorenzen’s ability to pitch in starting and relief roles and respond to the Royals’ pitching coaches make him worth considering back for at least a season, especially given how fickle pitching can be at the Major League level.

Does Lorenzen’s Future in Kansas City Depend On Wacha?

While Lorenzen can undoubtedly boost this Royals pitching staff in 2025, Picollo’s bigger priority will be figuring out the situation with Michael Wacha this offseason.

Wacha can opt out of the second year of his deal this season, which is a $16 million player option. The 33-year-old will likely look for a long-term contract in the 3-4 year range, perhaps around $20 million yearly (his market value via Spotrac data). Even though he didn’t get as much attention as Cole Ragans or Seth Lugo, Wacha did produce a 3.3 fWAR, one of the best marks of his career.

Furthermore, a strong contingent of Royals fans seems to want Wacha back in the rotation for 2025.

Thus, Lorenzen is in a tricky situation with the Royals.

As solid as Lorenzen was with the Royals, he doesn’t have the kind of upside that Wacha does. Wacha is a No. 3 starter who could ascend to the No. 2 role if something should happen to Lugo or Ragans. Lorenzen is likely a No. 5 starter who may have to switch to long relief if certain pitchers in the Royals system take another step forward development-wise.

For context, let’s compare Wacha and Lorenzen’s PLV arsenal metrics from last season.

Wacha’s 5.28 PLV was 41 points better than Lorenzen’s mark in 2024. While Wacha had fewer offerings than Lorenzen, the former Cardinal draft pick had three pitches with a PLV of five or higher last season, including a changeup that was one of the best in baseball on a PLV basis. On the other hand, Lorenzen only had two pitches with a PLV over five, and they were two of his least-thrown pitches (sweeper and slider) in his arsenal.

Therefore, Lorenzen’s future in Kansas City could depend on whether Wacha returns to the Royals this offseason.

Suppose Wacha does ink an extension with the Royals. In that case, Lorenzen will probably sign elsewhere, looking for a role in the rotation of a rebuilding team perhaps who would value his experience and vast pitch mix.

If Wacha leaves in free agency? Then it may make sense for the Royals to bring back Lorenzen on a one-year deal to add some stability in the pitching rotation as they try to find another long-term option to replace Wacha, whether from within the organization or outside via free agency or trade.

Does Kyle Wright Make Lorenzen Expendable?

One arm that the Royals will welcome in 2025 is Kyle Wright, who missed the 2024 season due to recovery from shoulder surgery.

A former Atlanta prospect and pitcher, Wright has struggled to stay healthy over his career after being drafted fifth overall by Atlanta out of Vanderbilt in 2017. The Royals acquired him last offseason with the hope that he could be a solid arm in the rotation in 2025 at a discounted cost.

The Royals are expected to ease Wright back to the Major League level, especially after missing 2024 and only pitching 31 innings with Atlanta in 2023.

However, Wright won 21 games in 2022 and posted a 3.19 ERA, 3.58 FIP, and accumulated a 2.8 fWAR in 180.1 IP. When Wright is healthy and clicking, he could have a No. 3 upside in this rotation for not just 2025 but beyond.

The Royals will likely bring Brady Singer back, solidifying the No. 1-4 spots in the rotation. If Wacha doesn’t return, it’s just the No.1-3 spots. Nonetheless, a Lorenzen return could depend on how much confidence the Royals have in Wright and whether or not Sweeney and Bove can help him return to that 2022 form.

Based on the PLV arsenal metrics from 2022 and 2023, Modifying his pitch mix and being able to add some velocity or movement on a fastball pitch (whether it’s the four-seamer or sinker) could be a step in the right direction for Sweeney and the team regarding Wright.

If the Royals believe that Wright has long-term potential, Lorenzen probably doesn’t make sense for this club, even with his ability to move to the bullpen. The Royals already have a lot of arms, and they may need to give Jonathan Bowlan a shot in the bullpen to begin the year, especially since he will be out of minor-league options.

That also excludes any reliever the Royals pick up in free agency. While the bullpen looked better in September and October, Picollo will likely pick up a few arms to add depth to the 40-man roster (I would expect the Royals to avoid signing Chris Stratton and Will Smith types this offseason).

Thus, that limits the possibilities with Lorenzen.

However, if Wright isn’t ready, Picollo could send him to Omaha to begin the year and stretch his arm further. Wright still does have a Minor League option remaining, which puts less pressure on the Royals to add him to the 2025 Opening Day roster.

Lorenzen’s future in Kansas City may be more likely if that’s the case…

Even though it won’t be much more than a one-year deal between $5-8 million (and who knows if that will be too much for the Royals).

Photo Credit: Sue Ogrocki | AP

10 thoughts on “Can Lorenzen Provide Stability to Royals Staff? (Especially if Wacha Doesn’t Return?)”

  1. I would asume that Wacha will go to free agency. He has know an established récord of performance. In KC he’s a #3 starter. In a rebuilding team, he would rate higher. Kyle Wright comes back strong, he’s #4. So, he may go to Minnesota, or Detroit.

    Wright is really the lynchpin of the rotation.ig Wright returns, behind Ragans, he has an advantage over most #2 starters. Same with Lugo at #3, leaving Singer, Marsh and Lorentzen to kill the back of the rotation.they face. Those six gives us an advantage when doubleheaders would threaten the rhythm of the rotation. It also gives us a great crutch should we have an injury or had to skip a start. Occasional long relief to stay sharp could also help the bullpen if the reliever comes in and locks down the 6th, 7th, 8th and 9th inning, much like a 4 inning start. An outing like that is great for an active bullpen. Also, opposing teams may not know who of Singer, Marsh or Lorentzen they will face.

    I see more upside to it.

    1. I have a feeling Wacha will sign elsewhere too. As much as I want to bring him back, I am not willing to give him a three-year guaranteed deal to do so (which seems to be what he’s looking for). And as you said, he becomes a 1-2 starter on maybe a more mid-tier team. I’m curious at this point in his career if he’s more serious about winning a pennant and competing in postseason (which makes KC more favorable) or being an “ace” of a team, even if it’s a bad one. I think it’s the former, which I think helps us in negotations, but am not 100%.

      Lorenzen coming back does give us that nice depth and bevy of options along with Singer, Marsh, and Wright. Noah Cameron could also factor into that mix, though think that might not happen until mid-year. I think Wright has way more upside, but I want to see him pitch in Spring Training first before making those conclusions. He has serious stuff and he was amazing in ’22 but want to see what he’s like after not pitching for over 1.5 years.

  2. Wright is really the rotation’s lynchpin. If he comes back fully, he and Ragans are pretty even. Lugo at #3 has an unfair advantage and may win 18+ games. Keeping Singer, Marsh and Lorentzen gives us a lot of flexibility keeping rotation arms “fresh”. In a best case scenario, we could have 3 15+ game winners and three 10 to 12 game winners. Now, if we upgrade offense, those numbers can go up. I recently floated the idea of having Vermin be the primary catcher, moving Perez to 3b and Maikel to 2b. That frees us to trade an injury prone Massey to the NL for a corner outfield bat (.270+ with some power and low k rate) with payroll flexibility. We can also offer Waters a chance on the condition that he improves his contact and OBP at the expense of power. I’m ok giving up a third of his current power output in exchange for 35-40 more basehits and an OBP north of .320. That could upgrade the lineup/roster at a negligible cost.

    1. I think if Wacha goes, then I like the strategy of bringing back Lorenzen and maintaining that depth rotation wise. Another factor will be if the Royals decide Bubic will return to starting. Don’t think they will, but we have seen Jordan Hicks and Garrett Crochet move back to the rotation after bullpen stints. I think Bubic fits well in a setup role, but I know the Royals want to maximize his value. If Bubic does return, that adds even more depth to the rotation which is what you need in a full 162-game season.

      I’m not the biggest Salvy to 3B, but I think a big factor to his offensive success this year was more time at DH and 1B compared to years past. Freddy helps the Royals do that, but Freddy’s regression at end of the season makes me hesitant to give him a full-time gig. I think Freddy is great at what he does as a semi-regular catcher who can get hot and be productive at the bottom of the order. I think if he’s seen as anything more, he can get exposed, which is kind of what happened in September.

      I would be curious to see if the Royals would trade Massey, who may benefit in a more lefty-friendly ballpark that can take advantage of his power. He could be a 20-25 HR hitter in Cincy or Philly. Hard to see that in KC at the K. Massey’s health will be key, which is why I think JJ really focused on “not giving up” on Maikel in his end-of-season press conference. Could see Maikel playing a lot more second in ’25 with the focus on acquiring a corner infielder (or outfielder) to boost the offense.

      I would like to see Waters get some kind of shot. He’s a defensive upgrade at the very least over Renfroe, Velazquez, and probably MJ. I don’t think Waters is a pure CF, but he could probably handle it better than Blanco, and I don’t think they’ll bring back Hampson for another year. I’d save the money they gave to Hampson and/or Frazier and look to give Waters a shot and maybe look to a defensive-first OF type who doesn’t need a ton of playing time but can be a nice complement to Isbel when he needs days off. John Rave could be that guy, but don’t see JJ going all in on young guys again after how ’24 went.

  3. I like the idea of having a “back of the rotation by comitee”. These are usually not the kind of arms that see 300 innings. As long as they’re on their routine for work, it matters little if it is as a 5 inning start or a 3 or 4 inning relief.

    At this stage of Salvi’s career, it is imperative to keep his bat in the lineup. He is not tall enough to play 1b daily. We have George Brett to work with him on fielding. There have been a number of catchers that transitioned to 3b. He could play 3b until age 36, And he can still catch once a week or 10 days, plus spell Pasquantino. After 36, if he still hits, DH. If you lack range at 3b, you play with your toes on the infield grass. A bigger risk might be to trade Pasquantinp and Pratto, and play Salvi there. We would need a top hitting 1b prospect with MLB-ETA of late 2026.

    Massey is a good player, but he needs to be capable of playing 150+ games. So far, he has not shown that. We can pencil Waters in at RF, sign Jurikson Profar, and trade Massey and Pasquantino for a c.f. ( Yankees seem to have a few excess outfielders like Aaron Hicks, suitable for a 2 year stint, and Massey might enjoy the short porch in RF) and 3b. We have players in the pipeline, so we are looking for complementary parts for 2-3 years

    IMPO, Waters is a better, younger version of Renfroe. I would send him to WL in the Caribbean to try out just making contact against “AAAA” Pitching. Solid, not Hard. Let’s see what happens when he just hits the ball without trying to kill it. It might work out.

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