We’re in the MLB offseason, and as expected, the rumor mill is in full force regarding where specific free agents will land in 2025.
After agreeing to an extension with Michael Wacha, JJ Picollo and the Royals front office have prioritized improving the hitting depth this offseason. Acquiring hitters who can get on base in multiple ways and finding more help at the leadoff spot would be areas of focus this offseason, as transcribed by MLB.com Royals beat writer Anne Rogers.
Picollo: “We’re looking at trying to add some on-base to our team. It would lend itself well to Bobby [Witt Jr.] hitting two, Vinnie [Pasquantino] hitting three, [Salvador Perez] hitting four. So on-base is a big focus, especially when we want to put the game in motion and be athletic. And ideally, it would be in the leadoff spot and maybe somewhere in the middle of the lineup. If we could do that, I think we’d have a much better team.”
That doesn’t mean that the Royals are done acquiring pitching.
It wouldn’t be surprising to see Picollo pick up a couple of arms late in the offseason to help give depth to the big league rotation or bullpen. However, seeing the Royals make a significant offer to a free-agent starting pitcher this offseason would be surprising, especially with the rotation pretty set one through four.
Many other Royals content creators and writers have dove into the significant free-agent targets in offseason posts. Thus, I will not talk about guys like Alex Bregman, Anthony Santander, Joc Pederson, or Teoscar Hernandez, as plenty has been said on the internet about those guys. Royals fans know that those free agents will command significant paydays.
Instead, I wanted to talk about more under-the-radar free-agent targets who could help boost the Royals lineup in specific areas and wouldn’t cost much this offseason. Going this route (instead of pursuing expensive free agents) would give the Royals flexibility to perhaps sign a young player or two to a long-term extension this winter or spring (e.g., Vinnie Pasquantino or Cole Ragans).
Let’s look at three affordable position player free agents who the Royals could target and help the Royals lineup in 2025.
Michael Conforto, OF (Market Value: $4.7 million)
In the past couple of seasons, Conforto has long been mentioned as a Royals target. However, he signed with the San Francisco Giants instead, opting to play in a bigger market and for a team with higher postseason aspirations.
The former Mets outfielder had a solid 2024 with the Giants, as he hit 20 home runs and posted a 112 wRC+ and 1.3 fWAR in 130 games and 488 plate appearances. Outfield defense has not been a strong suit for Conforto recently, as he posted a -4 OAA in LF last year with the Giants. Conversely, he has demonstrated a solid ability to work the count and get on base, as evidenced by his .348 career OBP.
The walk rate waned a bit last season, as it was 8.6%, the first time it had been in single digits since his rookie season in 2015. However, he has shown solid trends in plate patience and BB%, as seen in his career BB% rolling chart via Savant.
Even though he didn’t walk as much in 2024, his Process+ rolling chart data from last season shows his decision-making at the plate is still as solid as ever.
After a slow start and a period of injury in May, he turned on a switch at the plate in mid-June and demonstrated solid decision-making and power skills. His contact skills, unfortunately, eroded a bit over the season, and his 25.2% whiff rate further confirmed that he had a regression in contact.
A positive sign about Conforto in the future is that his expected numbers last year were much better than his actual metrics. His .352 xwOBA was 25 points higher than his actual wOBA, his .488 xSLG was 38 points higher, and his xBA was 21 points better.
A transition to a more hitter-friendly home ballpark like Kauffman (5th in Park Factor) instead of Oracle (27th in Park Factor) could mean better results for Conforto in 2025.
The Royals would be getting a professional hitter in Conforto, who also would be looking to return to the postseason (like the Royals themselves). Conforto could hit 20-plus home runs a season and post an OBP in the .320-.340 range over 450 to 500 plate appearances and 125-140 games in the corner outfield spots (preferably in right field, where he could platoon with Hunter Renfroe).
That hitting profile would be welcomed by a lineup that had a .306 OBP as a group and ranked 19th in baseball last season via Fangraphs. Furthermore, the Royals could bring him to Kansas City on a two-year deal in the $6-8 million AAV range.
Harrison Bader, CF (Market Value: $7.1 million)
The Royals benefitted last year from Garrett Hampson’s outfield defense in 2024.
According to Statcast, Hampson had a fielding run value (FRV) of +8, tied for second on the Royals with outfielder Kyle Isbel, whom Hampson often platooned with. Even though Hampson’s bat left a lot to be desired, he produced a 0.5 fWAR last season with the Royals thanks to his stellar glove and fielding.
Due to the spacious dimensions of Kauffman Stadium, the Royals want to find a replacement in the outfield who can hold things down defensively like Hampson did a season ago. While Isbel made some excellent strides last year, he only had a .450 OPS against left-handed pitchers. Finding a right-handed counterpart who can also play multiple positions and show some competency with the bat would be the ideal pickup.
Former Cardinal and Mets outfielder Harrison Bader could be that Hampson replacement who could provide more upside not just with the bat but also on the basepaths.
In 437 plate appearances with the Mets last year, Bader hit 12 home runs, stole 17 bases, posted an 85 wRC+, and produced a 1.3 fWAR. The sub-average wRC+ isn’t enticing at the surface level. However, that wRC+ would be tied for the ninth-best of Royals hitters with 50 or more plate appearances last season.
That isn’t bad for a platoon outfielder, mainly since fellow utility outfielders Hampson (59 wRC+) and Adam Frazier (63 wRC+) produced much worse marks last season.
On a positive note, based on his Process+ rolling chart data from 2024 with the Mets, Bader seems to still have solid contact skills.
Bader’s decision-making and power fluctuated wildly last season. However, he maintained a consistent ability to make contact at the plate.
Granted, he doesn’t typically hit the ball hard. His average exit velocity on batted balls ranked in the 17th percentile, and his hard-hit rate ranked in the 24th percentile via Savant. That said, he did improve his average exit velocity by 1.3 MPH, his barrel rate by 1.1%, and his hard-hit rate by 3.8% from 2023. So, his batted-ball skills are showing growth, even if it may be incremental.
According to his Statcast rolling hard-hit rate data, his 2024 rates were much better than those in 2022, when he was pretty sub-par when making hard contact.
Regardless, Bader has more offensive upside than Hampson or Frazier a season ago. Unlike those two, the former Florida Gator has the defensive metrics to back up his defensive reputation.
Bader would be worth a one-year deal in the $8-10 million range, perhaps with a club or player option to solidify the agreement. He would be the defensive outfielder the Royals would covet, especially considering how tough it can be to cover ground at the K.
Yoan Moncada, 3B (Market Value: $1.5 million)
There’s no question that Moncada would be a big-time free-agent risk. After all, he only had 45 plate appearances last season, and Royals fans have seen plenty of him with the White Sox, where he failed to live up to his once-massive prospect hype (though perhaps not as much as former teammate Eloy Jimenez).
Conversely, Moncada is a “low-risk, high-reward” free-agent target who could help the Royals at the hot corner and perhaps be worth flipping for some prospect return at the Trade Deadline if things work out as hoped.
As of now, the third-base picture for 2025 is quite unclear.
Maikel Garcia has been the primary third baseman for the past couple of seasons, but his bat hasn’t been as impressive as his glove. For context, let’s see how Moncada and Garcia compare hitting-wise via Fangraphs over the past two years.
Moncada has nearly 700 fewer plate appearances than Garcia over the past two years. That said, Moncada’s wRC+ is 25 points better, his wOBA is 34 points better, and his ISO is 66 points better. Despite Garcia being a much stronger defender than Moncada (16.1 Def compared to Moncada’s 0.8 mark), the former White Sox infielder’s fWAR is only 1.8 points behind Garcia (despite playing in 176 fewer games).
Based on Moncada’s 2023 Process+, which has a much bigger sample, the Cuban-born third baseman has the kind of power upside that would be more suitable offensively at the hot corner.
Furthermore, according to expected slugging rolling chart data via Savant, Moncada began to show more power at the end of 2023 and in 2024 when he was healthy. That should make Royals fans hopeful that if he can stay on the field, Moncada could be a 15-20 HR hitter in 2025.
Moncada is worth a one-year, $3-5 million deal for the Royals this season. His issue hasn’t necessarily been skill (he’s accumulated 13.8 fWAR since debuting in 2016) but staying healthy. It is difficult to determine if Moncada will be 100 percent come spring. I know Royals fans have concerns about players with injury histories, especially after what we went through with Adalberto Mondesi.
However, Moncada is worth the risk, and he could not only have a big year but could also be flipped for a prospect package at the Trade Deadline. A trade would make even more sense if Garcia could bounce back or if a player like Javier Vaz or Nick Loftin could emerge in Omaha next season.
Signing Moncada for cheap and trading him for an excellent prospect return would be what the Rays and Guardians would do, a sign that the Royals are growing and getting better as an organization from top to bottom.
Photo Credit: Seth Wenig | Associated Press
Well, this would be incredible!
“Conforto could hit 20-plus home runs a game”
🙂
Haha. Made that change! Thank you!
Interesting choices. If reasonably close in price, Jurickson Profar is likely a better option at LF. But, I can understand the allure of Conforto. He hits for a paltry (.230’s) average and good (.310) OBP. But at 4.7 million. I expect more bat in a corner outfielder. Profar on a 3 or 4 year deal gives you proven offensive capability you can use in any of the first 6 lineup slots.
Signing Profar also makes signing Bader as a platoon player with Ysbell a much more reasonable proposition to maximize their advantages.
Finally, Moncada should be a reasonable gamble. A multiyear package based on organic replacement, such as moving Carter Jensen to 3b, where his bat would play well and get him to MLB in 2-3 seasons.
If those 3 are signed, Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvy should benefit from the protection, as they would see more fastballs.
RF is still a question mark, as would be a Maikel,vs Massey battle for 2b… but the lineup would be much better. I’d be ok with Waters’s arm in RF and his bat in the lower third of the order. What’s your opinion on Andrew McCutchen to DH and play a little RF?
I thought about Profar, but his market value is about $12.9 AAV. I like his positional versatility, but his batted ball metrics were a bit of an aberration last year. It’s totally plausible that he truly tapped into something. That said, can he do it two years in a row, especially at 31 years old. That I’m less sure of. Plus, he suffers from the “can play multiple positions but none of them well” syndrome as Adam Frazier (7th percentile in OAA for Profar last year). I just think that kind of money isn’t worth it for a guy who will command between $12-15 million AAV and require 3-4 years to sign.
Jensen would make a lot of sense with a move to 3B. 1B seems a little crowded and the reports of Jensen’s athleticism have been positive. I think his bat can profile at third base and maybe he could see a bit of a spike now that he has the weight of not catching off of him. We saw Melendez benefit from that and honestly, Salvy saw a nice bounce back in 2024 because he caught a lot less last year. But I think going with Moncada for ’25, letting Maikel and Massey work things out at 2B, and prepping Jensen for the future at the hot corner isn’t a bad strategy.
As for McCutchen, I like him, but if I recall, it sounds like his preference is to retire a Pirate. So either Pittsburgh will bring him back or I think he will call it a career this winter. There’s a lot to like there with him though. 20 HRs and 105 wRC+ would be welcomed. However, would need to hear Pittsburgh say they’re not bringing him back first.