The MLB GM meetings took place this week, and some interesting buzz came out of the Royals camp regarding two pitchers on the roster.
According to the Athletic’s Will Sammon (Mets beat writer) and Katie Woo (Cardinals beat writer), the Royals are open to trading pitchers Kris Bubic and Alec Marsh to address other roster needs this offseason, especially on the offensive end.
The news is a bit surprising, considering the bounce-back seasons that Bubic and Marsh had in 2024.
Bubic only pitched 30.1 innings as a reliever in his return from Tommy John surgery in 2023, but he excelled as a setup man in the Royals bullpen. He produced a 2.67 ERA, 7.80 K/BB ratio, 1.95 FIP, and 0.9 fWAR, and was a heavily relied reliever in September and the postseason.
As for Marsh, he made some excellent progress last season, even though he was demoted to Omaha in August after a rough stretch in June (5.68 ERA) and July (6.86 ERA). In 26 appearances (25 starts) and 129 IP, he posted a 4.53 ERA, but he did produce a 3.15 K/BB ratio, 1.26 WHIP, 4.34 FIP, and 1.4 fWAR. Considering he is still in pre-arbitration, Marsh has a lot of upside as a low-end starter or possible reliever with plenty of team control.
The Royals have done much since JJ Picollo took over to build pitching depth in their farm system and at the Major League level. Kyle Wright will be competing for a rotation spot this spring after missing all of 2024 due to recovery from shoulder surgery, and Noah Cameron and Chandler Champlain could be long shots for spots on the pitching staff this spring if they are added to the 40-man roster (or not selected in the Rule 5 Draft).
Thus, based on this depth, it makes sense why the Royals may be thinking about cashing in on Bubic and Marsh on the trade market, especially considering their needs in the lineup.
However, should the Royals trade one or both away? Or do Bubic and Marsh have the long-term upside that makes them worth holding onto this offseason?
Let’s break each pitcher down and examine what Picollo and the Royals should do with them this winter.
Bubic’s Pitch Quality Improvement Makes It Tough For Royals
There’s no question that Bubic put up excellent results as a reliever in 2024. That said, he also showcased significant growth and development in his pitch quality last season, which may be the most impressive feat.
When looking at his pitch run values on his pitch arsenal since 2022, Bubic has seen significant improvement on his four-seamer, which was an extremely poor pitch for him two seasons ago.
The four-seam jumps are genuinely incredible. Back in 2022, Bubic’s four-seamer, which he threw 50.5% of the time, not only had a -20 run value but allowed a .441 wOBA, a .391 xwOBA, and a hard-hit rate of 48.6%. He only had a 20.1% whiff rate and an 18.9% put-away rate on the four-seamer.
In 2024, Bubic’s four-seamer had a +3 run value and improved in nearly every category via Statcast.
His wOBA declined to .272, and xwOBA also fell to .236. His hard-hit rate allowed on the pitch was 31.6%, a 17-point improvement. He also had a 34.7% whiff rate on the pitch and a put-away rate of 33.8%. Thus, the four-seamer went from a liability for Bubic to one of the best offerings in his arsenal last season.
Bubic saw a 23-point gain in run value on the pitch primarily due to his efforts to induce more vertical break and spin on the pitch since 2022.
When looking at the induced vertical break and spin rate trends via Statcast data, Bubic saw huge spikes in both categories over the past two seasons.
(Scroll to the right for vertical break; left for average spin rate.)
Furthermore, when comparing other pitch quality factors via PLV data, Bubic also saw an improvement in four-seamer velocity and a gain in location and PLV.
As Royals fans can see, the extension and Adjusted VAA stayed roughly the same (only a 0.3 ft. difference in extension and 0.2-degree difference in VAA). However, the offering had less arm-side break this season and traded that off for more vertical movement. As a result, his plvLoc+ improved by 10 points since 2022, and his PLV went from 4.77 (far below average) to 5.43 (far above average).
Below is also a clip compilation comparing his four-seamers from 2022 and 2024. Notice in the clip how much more movement the offering had last season than in 2022.
The four-seam fastball was a revelation for Bubic last season and key to his overall success. However, all his pitches saw significant improvement, and he also added more to his pitch repertoire, something former Royals pitching coach Cal Eldred prevented Bubic from doing when Bubic broke into the league in 2020.
Here is a look at his PLV arsenal metrics from 2022 through 2024.
Bubic not only added a pitch to his arsenal in 2023 and 2024, but he also eliminated his curve, which was a mediocre offering, added a slider, and made that offering impactful on a PLV level. Bubic deserves credit for constantly tweaking his pitch mix over the past two seasons, and the Royals pitching coaches deserve to be lauded for helping Bubic tap into the appropriate pitch mix.
The main question, though, is whether Bubic could maintain this pitch quality as a starter.
In a recap of this week’s GM meeting, MLB.com Royals beat writer Anne Rogers shared how Picollo and the Royals view Bubic as a starter for now.
Picollo: “We’re very comfortable with our starting pitching right now. You’ve got Wacha, [Seth] Lugo, [Cole] Ragans, [Brady] Singer, [Alec] Marsh. Kris Bubic was in the bullpen this past year, but we believe he’s a starter. Daniel Lynch went to the bullpen and did a nice job, but he’s another one who could be a starter. We don’t expect to be in the market for a starter moving forward. We’re going to focus on some other things.”
Whether Bubic transitions back to the rotation will be intriguing to follow this winter and spring. His stuff and pitch quality obviously play a bullpen role, and Bubic seemed to respond well in high-leverage situations, especially down the stretch and in the postseason.
However, he only pitched 30.1 innings in 2024 and has only accumulated 46.1 IP the past two seasons. Will Bubic and his pitch quality hit a wall once he reaches the 100-inning mark? Are the Royals comfortable with him being a No. 4 or 5 starter who is less dominant on the mound?
How his stuff progresses in longer-inning outings, this spring could determine not only Bubic’s role with the Royals in 2025 but also whether or not he stays in Kansas City long-term. I do not see the Royals trading him until they know what he can do in Spring Training in Surprise.
Marsh Saw Growth, But Is He Still Expendable?
Much like Bubic, Marsh saw some growth as a pitcher in 2024.
He improved his ERA from 5.69 in 2023 to 4.54 in 2024 and his K/BB ratio from 2.18 to 3.15. According to run-value metrics via Statcast, he significantly improved his offerings from his rookie season, especially with his four-seam fastball.
The whiff rate and put-away rate did go down on the four-seamer in 2024. However, the wOBA and xwOBA improved, and he saw a 3.3% decrease in the hard-hit rate on the offering. Thus, the pitch became a better overall offering, as demonstrated by his +3 run value on the four-seamer.
The four-seamer dropped in terms of vertical movement, but he saw an increase in spin on the pitch from his rookie season. That could explain why it became less of a “swing and miss” offering for Marsh last season (but more effective in minimizing hard contact).
Here’s a look in the clip compilation below of Marsh’s four-seamers from 2023 and 2024. It does seem like there’s a lot more spin with the four-seamer this season, even if it comes at the expense of velocity.
The changeup also saw significant improvement in run value, improving 11 runs from 2023. The wOBA went from .501 to .246, and xwOBA also improved from .391 to .367. The hard-hit rate did increase by two percent, and the whiff and put-away rates dropped, making the improvement on the changeup feel less sustainable than the four-seamer.
The images below show how Marsh fared on his pitch mix via PLV in 2023 and 2024. While there’s improvement, Marsh doesn’t fare as impressively on a PLV end like Bubic.
A 38-point improvement in four-seam PLV and a 23-point improvement in overall PLV is a good sign for Marsh and shouldn’t entirely be dismissed. That said, even with this growth, Marsh still proved to be a sub-average pitcher regarding the quality of his pitches in 2024.
Thus, to me, Marsh seems like a candidate to trade away, especially if a team still believes in him as a starter.
It’s certainly possible that Marsh could improve his pitching under Royals pitching coaches Brian Sweeney and Zach Bove. On the other hand, the competition for the fifth spot appears to be fierce, especially if the Royals intend to bring Brady Singer back for the 2025 season.
Marsh could also be a solid reliever, but unlike Bubic, that is unknown. He could struggle with the role, and the bullpen has other arms that are more proven now than Marsh.
There’s no question that Marsh would net the Royals less in any trade return than Bubic.
However, I would live with a lesser return in a Marsh trade than lose out on the potential upside of Bubic, who could become the third-best starter in the rotation in 2025 if he can transition his dominant pitch quality from the bullpen to the rotation next season.
Photo Credit: Ed Zurga/GettyImages
I would vote we keep both. My reason is that both are 5+ pitch guys. They have starter repertoire… and they are effective. It is easier to win a 3-2 game than a 7-5 game. In a title run, pitching is the one thing you can’t have too much of. Particularly pitching that is comfortable starting or in relief.
We have in Wacha a reliable 5 inning guy. Sometimes 6, but less reliable after that. It is a career and seasonal numbers thing, and may be linked to variety of pitches, or stamina. Regardless, Wacha and Lugo require having a couple of guys that can be dominant for 3 to 5 innings. We have that in Marsh and Bubic. In addition, they can pick up an occasional start to keep the rotation rested. As for the bullpen, if this is a championship run, we can use Omaha as a bullpen annex. Short relievers require velocity, a diverse Arsenal is a plus, but they’re usually not seeing the same guy twice in one game.
There are good options in free agency for LF ( Profar) which may afford us to staff rf from our farm system. Rather than bringing in a flashy bat, we should taylor our hitting approach to eliciting 8+ pitch at bats from our lineup. In theory, you might get the opposing starter to his 100 pitch in the fourth inning. Not to mention that few pitchers can go 20+ pitches in an inning without mentally breaking down.
We still have a 3b that hits Like a middle infielder and a 2b who is somewhat brittle but hits like a 3b. Why not swap them in the infield? At least until there is a clear cut option.
If I have my way, I think I would too. If the Royals were going to trade one away, I think trading Marsh away makes more sense. That said, as you mentioned, having guys who throw 5 pitches and shown some progress from a year ago shouldn’t be underestimated. I agree with you that I would like to see what some arms from Omaha could do, particularly Sisk, who was just added to the 40-man and Bowlan, who saw more time as a reliever in the second half of the ’24 season.