It has been a few days since the New York Yankees eliminated the Royals in the American League Division Series. Baseball has now proceeded to the League Championship Series rounds, with the Cleveland Guardians beating the Detroit Tigers in game five of their ALDS series.
It’s tough to see the Guardians advance to the ALCS while the Royals stay home, especially after they won the season series against Cleveland 8-5 this season. Furthermore, it’s also challenging to see the Royals come on the losing end of a heated series against the Yankees. Even though Kansas City hasn’t had a lot of postseason appearances in their franchise history (especially after 1985), Royals fans have been used to seeing the Royals make deep runs in the playoffs (i.e., make the World Series) when they did make it.
Thus, it’s easy to view the season as a disappointment, especially considering the Royals’ exit from the ALDS and their rough September, in which they went 11-14.
However, this Royals team won 30 more games in 2024 after losing 106 in 2023, which tied a franchise record. They made their first postseason berth since 2015 and won a playoff series against an Orioles team that won 91 games and was a favorite to make it to the World Series in the preseason.
Losing is never fun, and it was a bummer to see the magic of this Royals season end against an insufferable Yankees team and fanbase, especially at home in game four.
That said, Royals fans shouldn’t lose sight of how special this 2024 season was and what it could mean for this franchise in 2025 and beyond.
Surpassing the Preseason Expectations
The Royals made some splashes in the offseason following their 56-win effort in 2023.
They signed Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo to boost the rotation, added Will Smith, Chris Stratton, John Schreiber, and Nick Anderson to the bullpen, and added depth offensively with the signings of Garrett Hampson, Adam Frazier, and Hunter Renfroe.
JJ Picollo and the Royals weren’t just going to sit on their hands and just “hope” the young talent on the Royals roster would suddenly get better in 2024. They brought in veteran talent to help guide the young Royals core and provide insurance if the young talent either regressed or failed to show progress this season.
That said, the moves didn’t seem to have much of an impact on the projection systems in the preseason.
PECOTA projected the Royals to win only 70 games this year, while ZiPS was a little higher at 73. Granted, those are 14- and 19-win improvements, respectively. Nonetheless, in the preseason with the Royals, many experts felt they would see improvement, but it would be incremental in 2024.
The Royals shattered those meager expectations.
Kansas City won their 70th game on August 19th against the Angels. They won their 73rd game on August 26th against Cleveland. They won their 81st game (guaranteeing a non-losing season) on September 13th and their 82nd game (ensuring a winning season) on September 14th.
The Royals didn’t just take “baby steps” to become a winning ballclub, as in the Dayton Moore era during the first rebuilding process. They stepped up in a big way and made the postseason in just one season.
Fans shouldn’t quickly dismiss that kind of turnaround.
Even in the expanded postseason era, it isn’t easy for small-market teams to consistently compete for playoff spots. The Pirates and Reds are two examples of clubs similar to the Royals in market size and history that missed out on the postseason again, even though they had higher expectations in the preseason than Kansas City.
The Royals may have fallen short against the Yankees, capping an eight-game losing streak at Kauffman Stadium to close out the 2024 season (the Tigers and the Giants swept them in the final homestand of the year). That kind of finish certainly will weigh on Royals fans, whose excitement was bursting at the end of the season.
Conversely, the Royals’ turnaround this year was remarkable, and numerous moments will characterize how memorable 2024 was for this fanbase.
The Royals didn’t just “learn how to win” in 2024. They did it and made Royals fans hopeful about the organization’s future.
This Season Won’t Just Be a One-Year Aberration
The Royals’ success has been phenomenal for this city and fanbase. However, baseball has seen teams experience a remarkable turnaround, only to regress to the norm the following season.
The Miami Marlins are a prime example.
In 2023, the Marlins won 84 games after winning only 69 in 2022. However, they tanked this year, going 62-100, the second-worst record in the NL.
However, the Royals are in a completely different situation than the Marlins, which should give Royals fans hope that they won’t regress in the same way in 2025.
The Marlins did win 84 games in 2023. However, they had a -57 run differential and a Pythagorean Win-Loss of 75-87. Miami overachieved greatly in 2023 and wasn’t as good as their record indicated. That showed in the postseason as they were swept in two games by the Phillies in the Wild Card round.
Furthermore, Marlins owner Bruce Sherman is much different from Royals owner John Sherman.
The Miami Sherman fired GM Kim Ng and replaced her with former Rays GM Peter Bendix, who started a “new” rebuilding process. The Marlins traded away Luis Arraez before the season began and eventually parted ways with key franchise players Jazz Chisholm, Jr. and Tanner Scott. Instead of building on their postseason success, the Marlins opted for a “cost-saving” approach.
The Kansas City Sherman won’t do that if last year is any indication.
Picollo is solidified as the club’s GM/President of Baseball Operations. Furthermore, Sherman also increased the payroll from $91 million in 2023 to $114 million in 2024. Expect that payroll number to go up again this offseason, especially after the phenomenal success the Royals experienced this year.
Furthermore, the Royals have shown a commitment to keeping their key players in the long term. They signed Bobby Witt, Jr. to a historic contract extension. Vinnie Pasquantino, Cole Ragans, and Brady Singer could likely be eligible for extensions this offseason. The Royals aren’t going to shuffle players off the roster and bring up young prospects like the Marlins to save a buck.
That said, the Royals also have to feel good about their farm system’s progress and budding depth.
After being rated as one of the worst farm systems in baseball for the past two years, Picollo’s scouting department has brought in more talent through the draft and internationally. Furthermore, the Royals’ player development has also helped multiple prospects improve on the hitting and pitching end in the past season. The improved records of multiple Royals affiliates demonstrate that player development has progressed since Picollo took over from Moore.
Furthermore, the success of the young talent at the MLB level also demonstrates that the player development process has bore fruit despite some initial scrutiny from frustrated Royals fans.
The Royals didn’t go “all in” to experience a winning season in 2024. Instead, Picollo opted for an approach that improved the team immediately while keeping their options open for the future.
The Royals have young talent in the pipeline who can contribute in the second half of 2025 or on Opening Day in 2026. Much of that talent is on display in the Arizona Fall League right now, with 2024 first-round pick Jac Caglianone as the primary example.
As Royals fans, we have been clamoring for Picollo and the front office to build this team into a consistent winner who can compete in the postseason while maintaining a healthy farm system. We have wanted this team to be built similarly to successful small-market franchises like the Rays, Guardians, and Brewers.
This year, it seems like that is getting closer to a reality. To make things better, we may be a franchise with similar infrastructure to Tampa, Cleveland, and Milwaukee but with ownership that is more willing to spend the necessary cash to acquire or keep top-tier talent in Kansas City.
The 2024 season was undoubtedly memorable because of the 30-win turnaround and first postseason appearance in nine years.
However, this season could be the tip of the iceberg…
Kansas City may become a baseball town again (like in the ’70s and ’80s), especially with the organization looking healthier than ever at the Major and Minor League levels.
Photo Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images