The Kansas City Royals fell short in the American League Division Series, losing 3-1 on Thursday night at Kauffman Stadium. The loss helped the Yankees clinch the best-of-five-game series three to one, officially ending the Royals’ surprising and magical 2024 season.
As much as Royals fans wanted the magic to continue this October, this Yankees team was a bad matchup that Kansas City had struggled with this season. The Royals lost five of the seven games with New York during the regular season, and they nearly got swept in a four-game set at home against the Yankees in June. Thankfully, a Clay Holmes blown save and Maikel Garcia walkoff hit prevented the sweep at the K.
The Royals needed the Yankees to look rusty at some point in this series so that Kansas City could have a chance to steal the series, and unfortunately, that didn’t happen. Aaron Judge didn’t have the best series, but the rest of the Yankees lineup seemed to have impactful moments, and the Yankees pitching staff (sans Carlos Rodon) kept the Royals hitters in check over the four games.
Nonetheless, that shouldn’t damper an impressive overall season from this Royals team.
After losing 106 games in 2023, tied for a franchise-worst, the Royals went 86-76 and finished second in the AL Central after finishing last in the division in 2022 and 2023. To see that kind of turnaround so quickly shouldn’t be dismissed, especially with how complicated the rebuilding process can be for small-market teams like the Royals.
Owner John Sherman and GM JJ Picollo promised improvement in 2024 and to make a run at the Wild Card at the very least. Thankfully, both those things happened in a significant way. Furthermore, the Royals have manufactured this turnaround with a solid mix of youth and veterans that can help the club make the postseason for years.
Still, despite the positive 2024 campaign, the Royals’ postseason performance, especially the Yankees series, revealed some key things that Picollo and the Royals front office will need to address this offseason.
Let’s look at three things that stood out from this ALDS and how they could impact things this winter for this Royals roster and outlook for 2025.
The Royals’ Lineup Still Needs Some Work
The Royals’ offense wasn’t necessarily “bad” in 2024.
According to Fangraphs, the Royals ranked 14th in OPS, 13th in runs scored, 11th in stolen bases, and 10th in batting average. Regarding positional player fWAR, they ranked 16th, ahead of playoff teams like Atlanta and Detroit. Even though the Royals didn’t look good offensively in September and the postseason, the data shows that this lineup was at least respectable for most of the season.
The Royals’ hitting was inconsistent, though, in 2024, as they experienced numerous highs and lows throughout the season.
During the summer months (May through August), they ranked 14th in the league in wRC+ with a 105 mark. In March/April, that team wRC+ was 92, ranking 22nd. In September/October, they had a 61 wRC+, ranking last in baseball.
When the weather was colder, the Royals bats also got cold. That was evident in the postseason, as they failed to muster enough consistent offense against the Yankees and the Orioles (their pitching thankfully carried them in the AL Wild Card series).
Furthermore, when looking at this position player group as a whole, it was obvious that there were many holes in the lineup, which led to the inconsistency. Bobby Witt, Jr. and Salvador Perez were the only Royals players who produced an fWAR over two in 2024.
Witt was phenomenal in 2024, as his 10.4 fWAR and 168 wRC+ demonstrate. That said, the Royals won’t make the postseason again in 2025 if he and Salvy are the only ones producing.
Vinnie Pasquantino and Michael Massey showed flashes of productivity, posting 102 and 108 wRC+ marks, respectively. However, both had injury issues over the season, and the Royals need more depth and production beyond those two.
The Royals will likely see Yuli Gurriel, Tommy Pham, Robbie Grossman, Garrett Hampson, and Adam Frazier leave Kansas City this offseason. Even though those veterans had their moments with the Royals, they were simply fill-in solutions in 2024, not long-term players. Their departures should free up some payroll money, which will help the Royals be competitive in free agency this winter.
The main question, though, will be this: How will the Royals approach position-player acquisitions this winter?
The Royals will likely have Hunter Renfroe back, as he has a player option, and likely will exercise that option after posting a 92 wRC+ and -0.1 fWAR in 120 games this season. It’s unlikely that Renfroe would get anything more than a Minor League deal this offseason from any other team, especially at 32 years old.
Even with Renfroe on the roster, the Royals can be creative, though it likely means they will move on from players like MJ Melendez and Maikel Garcia as everyday players. Kansas City is a more desirable landing spot for free agents than a year ago. The team won a postseason series, and the coaching staff has an excellent reputation around the league. Witt, one of the league’s most exciting players, will also be around for a while, and good free agents want to be around established star players.
The Royals received some flack from fans and the national media for their efforts on the free-agent position-player end last winter. The results were mixed, which isn’t a bad thing (they helped the Royals experience a 30-win turnaround). However, after an 86-win season, the Royals need to be a little more aggressive with position player free agents this offseason.
Hopefully, more prominent names will see Kansas City as a destination, which could help this offense improve in 2025.
The Rotation May Need to Be Retooled
The Royals flourished in 2024 due to their starting rotation. According to Fangraphs, the group ranked second in fWAR and ERA. Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo were the primary anchors of this rotation, posting fWAR marks of 4.9 and 4.7, respectively. They likely will receive votes in the AL Cy Young race.
Much like the offense, the rotation was a bit top-heavy, and the group’s fWAR after Ragans and Lugo was a bit more questionable.
Michael Wacha posted a 3.3 fWAR, and Brady Singer posted a 2.5 fWAR, both solid marks. However, Alec Marsh regressed after a strong start and only posted a 4.57 ERA and 1.4 fWAR in 128 IP. Additionally, Wacha, Singer, and Marsh have questionable futures for 2025.
Wacha posted a career-best in fWAR and the second-most innings in his career. Thus, he will likely opt out of the second year of his deal and explore his options in free agency.
Singer had a bounce-back season after a rough 2023 in which he posted a 5.52 ERA and 2.0 fWAR. Conversely, he faded a bit in the second half of the season. After posting a 3.24 ERA in the first half, he had a 4.40 ERA after the All-Star Break. This included a 5.53 ERA in August and a 5.67 ERA in September/October.
The Royals’ first selection in the 2018 MLB Draft will be in his second-to-last year of arbitration, and the negotiations could be complex after his promising 2024 campaign. Singer and the Royals went to arbitration after the 2022 season, and it didn’t seem like a pleasant process, as the Royals failed to agree to an extension at the deadline.
It will be interesting to see if the Royals and Singer will either a.) come to an extension agreement earlier to avoid the difficulties of that process from two years ago or b.) part ways in a possible trade and let another team handle those contract discussions.
As solid as Singer was in 2024, it did feel like this year was the peak for him as a starting pitcher at the Major League level. With a limited pitch mix, it may be more to his benefit to move to the bullpen, much like fellow 2018 draft picks Kris Bubic and Daniel Lynch IV.
That said, it seems like Singer has bought into the “Royals Way” and organization after struggling to be receptive in his first few seasons in the Majors.
He finally tweaked his pitch mix and added a four-seamer and sweeper to his repertoire this season. He accepted his bullpen role and struck out Aaron Judge in a massive spot in game three. Lastly, he was the first guy from the bullpen during a chippy confrontation between Anthony Volpe and Maikel Garcia in game four on Thursday.
Would Singer be more agreeable to a reasonable extension? He certainly has less leverage than he did two seasons ago, especially with Kyle Wright competing for a rotation spot next spring and Noah Cameron and Chandler Champlain possibly rotation options from Omaha.
With Wacha and Michael Lorenzen likely hitting free agency this offseason, the Royals must decide on Singer and his future in Kansas City. What they do with him (keep him or trade him) could determine if they will be as aggressive in the starting pitching market as they were a season ago.
The Royals Aren’t World Series Ready Just Yet
This was the first taste of the postseason for the young Royals core. Against Baltimore, they seemed to be up for the challenge, as they bested the Orioles’ young stars like Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman at Camden Yards in the AL Wild Card round.
Against the Yankees, the playoff experience of New York’s roster and coaching staff seemed to win out.
Here’s how the Royals hitters performed in the ALDS via Fangraphs.
It’s a small sample size. Garrett Hampson was the top performer in the ALDS, for example. However, Witt and Vinnie’s negative wRC+ marks show how tough the Yankees pitching staff was on the Royals’ young star hitters.
After the Royals officially lost the series, one player stood out in the dugout for continuing to watch the Yankees celebrate, using the image as fuel for his offseason preparation.
Who it was shouldn’t be a surprise for Royals fans.
There’s no doubt that Witt took his rough performance against the Yankees hard. After all, so much was riding on this series for Witt and the Royals: A spot in the ALCS, bragging rights over one of the most hated baseball teams, and Witt gaining an edge in the AL MVP race. Aaron Judge didn’t exactly light it up either in the ALDS. Unfortunately, Witt couldn’t take advantage.
That said, Witt seems to care more about disappointing Kansas City fans and the team’s success than winning an individual postseason honor.
Vinnie also seemed to echo similar sentiments in the locker room following the game-four loss.
The young Royals ran into an experienced and motivated Yankees club this postseason. They will likely be the favorites against the Guardians or Tigers in the next round and could also be the favorites in the World Series. The Royals shouldn’t feel any shame for losing a team that is as complete roster-wise from top to bottom as the Yankees, especially considering this Royals group only won 56 games a year ago.
That kind of platitude, though, will only work for this offseason.
After winning 86 games this year, the Royals are expected to win more in 2025 and beyond. Making the playoffs is now expected next season, not a luxury like this year. The Royals must beat teams like the Yankees, not just be competitive in the regular season and playoffs.
And the young Royals hitters, especially Witt and Vinnie, need to be even more significant, especially in those crucial spots in big-time games. If they aren’t, the “lessons” they learned this postseason will all be for naught.
Instead of a budding dynasty, as we saw in the 1970s and 80s in Kansas City, the Royals will be another overachieving small-market team like the A’s, Rays, and Brewers, who can consistently make the postseason but can’t win the games that count. That’s not the worst place to be as a franchise. After all, the Royals were far from that place before this year and had more in common with consistent division bottom-feeders like the Pirates, Angels, Rockies, and Marlins.
Royals fans learned this team has holes that need to be filled this offseason, especially on the depth end. The players and coaches need more seasoning and experience in these massive postseason games.
Did they get enough of it to make a postseason breakthrough in 2025 and subsequent years?
Royals fans won’t know the answer to that question until around this time next season.
Photo Credit: Jamie Squire/Getty Images
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