It’s safe to say that this has been a positive offseason for the Kansas City Royals.
General Manager JJ Picollo addressed the pitching in a major way by adding starters Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha and also improved the bullpen by acquiring Nick Anderson, Chris Stratton, and Will Smith. Considering the Royals’ pitching ranked 27th in fWAR a season ago, according to Fangraphs, this spending spree on arms was a promising sign that the Royals would improve upon their 56-106 record a season ago.
Undoubtedly, the Royals in 2024 should be better than the 2023 version as long as they stay relatively healthy. That being said, the big question now among Royals fans is how much better the Royals will be this season?
With the Royals being one of the few teams actually spending this offseason and not staying pat, some fans, and experts think that the postseason could be a legitimate endeavor in 2024, especially in a division that has seen three different division winners over the past three seasons.
On the other hand, the Royals did lose 106 games a season ago.
To make the postseason, the Royals would have to win 84-90 games to unseat the Twins, the current division favorites. Even though the Royals’ Pythagorean W-L from 2023 had them as a 64-win team, trying to undergo a 30-win turnaround in just one year is a tall task for any club.
For context, the Arizona Diamondbacks and Texas Rangers, who both faced off in the World Series this year, lost 110 and 102 games, respectively, in 2021. However, the Diamondbacks went 74-88 in 2022 and the Rangers went 68-94 that season as well before both ended up winning pennants in 2023.
The Royals will likely need to take an incremental step in 2024 before having a breakthrough like the Diamondbacks and Rangers did a season ago.
Will the Royals experience a Diamondbacks-esque turnaround (22-win improvement) or a more modest Rangers-esque one (8-win improvement) in 2024?
To get a sense of what kind of improvement the Royals could have, I decided to take a look at Depth Charts’ projections in three areas: hitting, starting pitching, and relief pitching. After looking at those projections, I would look at what their projected fWAR would look like and how it compared to not just the Royals last year, but the league as well.
So let’s take a look at the Royals’ projection breakdown and what Royals fans can expect for 2024.
Hitting: 11.3 fWAR in 2023 (24th)
The Royals ranked 24th in the league in hitter fWAR last season, which put them ahead of teams like the Tigers and Marlins but behind the Red Sox and Pirates.
Bobby Witt, Jr. was the Royals’ leader in fWAR last season as he produced a 5.7 fWAR mark (which actually ranked 11th overall of qualified hitters last year). That said, there was a major dropoff from Royals hitters after Witt, as the Royals only had four hitters last year who produced a fWAR over 1.0 beyond Witt.
The Royals had six players who produced negative fWAR marks who are no longer on the 40-man roster, including Matt Duffy, Matt Beaty, Hunter Dozier, Franmil Reyes, Jackie Bradley, Jr., and Nate Eaton. Salvador Perez (-0.3 fWAR) and Nick Pratto (-0.6 fWAR) return but they should be better in 2024, based on Depth Charts’ projections.
In fact, let’s take a look at Depth Charts” Royals’ projections for hitters, which only accounts for the Royals players expected to have playing time at the Major League level.
Depth Charts is being a little modest with Witt, as expected, but his 4.7 fWAR is expected to be impressive nonetheless.
The big boost on a hitting end is Pasquantino, who produced a 0.0 fWAR in 2023 due to his season being cut short due to injury. Depth Charts is projecting him for a 2.6 fWAR mark, which is the second-best projection for any Royals hitter.
Maikel Garcia, who produced a 1.9 fWAR last year, is expected to be solid again with a 1.7 mark in 2024. Furthermore, Depth Charts is projecting big bouncebacks from MJ Melendez (1.4), Salvador Perez (1.3), and Michael Massey (1.3). As a result, the Royals should have eight players expected to produce a fWAR of 1.0 or higher, which is three more than a season ago.
New acquisition Hunter Renfroe, who produced a 0.6 fWAR in 2023 with the Angels and Reds, is only expected to modestly bounce back with a 0.8 fWAR mark (albeit in 160 fewer plate appearances). That said, he is expected to outproduce fellow right-field candidates Drew Waters (0.6 fWAR) and Nelson Velazquez (0.6 fWAR) in not just fWAR but also wRC+ as well (102 for Renfroe; 92 for Waters; 98 for Velazquez).
When adding all these projections up, the Royals’ hitters are expected to produce 18.6 fWAR in 2024. That is not just 7.3 more than a season ago, but would have ranked them 17th in hitter fWAR a season ago, ahead of the Angels (16.2 fWAR) but just slightly behind the Cardinals (18.7 fWAR).
Starting Pitching: 7.1 fWAR (26th)
The Royals starting pitching overall wasn’t good as they ranked 26th in the league in fWAR, ahead of only the Pirates, Nationals, Rockies, and Athletics.
That said, the rotation was boosted by Cole Ragans, who arrived in Kansas City from Texas via the Aroldis Chapman trade. Ragans posted a 2.4 fWAR in only 12 starts and 71.2 IP, which is really incredible when one breaks it all down.
Here’s a look at how the Royals starting pitchers fared a season ago, via Fangraphs.
Now, the Royals did use a lot of openers last season, so I made sure the sample only included starting pitchers who pitched 10 or more innings in a starting role.
Beyond Ragans, the Royals only had two starters who produced an fWAR over 1 (Brady Singer at 1.9; Zack Greinke at 1.1). However, Ryan Yarbrough did produce a 0.9 fWAR in 38 IP. He would likely have surpassed that 1.0 fWAR mark had he not missed time due to a facial injury.
The Royals did have two starters who posted negative fWAR marks, including Brad Keller (-0.1) and Alec Marsh (-0.8). Only Marsh remains on the roster though Marsh likely will transition to the bullpen in a bulk-innings role for the 2024 season.
Here’s a look at the Depth Charts projections for Royals starting pitchers for this upcoming season.
The additions of Lugo and Wacha add 3.7 fWAR to the Royals rotation alone, which is nearly half the Royals’ starting pitcher fWAR from 2023. Depth Charts projects Ragans to be solid again, though not as spectacular, with a 2.6 fWAR.
Brady Singer is expected to see some modest improvement, as he is projected for a 2.1 fWAR mark, which is tied for the second-best fWAR in 2024 for pitchers along with Lugo. On the flip side, Depth Charts projects more aggressive improvements from Daniel Lynch and Jordan Lyles, who are expected to be 0.6 and 0.4 points, respectively, better than a year ago in the fWAR category.
Overall, Royals starting pitchers are projected to produce a 10.4 fWAR mark in 2024, according to Depth Charts. That is 3.3 wins better than a season ago and would’ve ranked them 18th in baseball a season ago.
Relief Pitchers: 0.5 fWAR (28th)
The Royals bullpen was one of the worst in baseball, as they ranked 28th with a 0.5 fWAR, which was ahead of only the Mets and the Athletics (Oakland’s bullpen produced a -0.1 fWAR; so food for thought for Royals fans).
Aroldis Chapman led all Royals relievers with a 1.3 fWAR, which wasn’t bad for a one-year flyer that eventually turned into a possible long-term ace in Ragans midseason.
Other than Chapman though, the Royals’ bullpen production was ugly, which can be seen below via Fangraphs.
Amazingly, 13 Royals relievers produced a negative fWAR last season. That included Amir Garrett (-0.2 fWAR), Dylan Coleman (-0.3 fWAR), and Taylor Clarke (-0.4 fWAR), three relievers who were initially predicted to be key contributors before the start of the 2023 season.
Of those Royals relievers with negative fWAR marks, only Steven Cruz (-0.1) and Carlos Hernandez (-0.1) remain on the Royals 40-man roster. Thus, Picollo has at least trimmed some of the fat this offseason from a bullpen that was one of the league’s worst in 2023.
The Royals have added a lot of new faces to the bullpen this offseason with the hope that these veteran arms can help turn this group around. Here’s a look at how this bullpen projects in 2024, according to Depth Charts projections.
With the addition of Anderson, Smith, Stratton, Minor League free agent Dan Altavilla, and Rule 5 selection Matt Sauer, the Royals’ bullpen is projected to accumulate a 2.0 fWAR. That is 1.5 wins better than a season ago, which is a sign of progress from a group that has struggled over the past three seasons (they rank 27th in reliever fWAR over that time frame).
Unfortunately, their 2.0 fWAR mark would have ranked 25th last season among bullpen, ahead of only the White Sox, Nationals, and the Angels.
Hence, the offseason additions aren’t projected to have as big of an impact on the bullpen, unlike the additions to the rotation (though if the Royals do continue to add, the bullpen seems to be the most likely spot).
Final Thoughts
If Royals fans add the win improvement numbers together, they will get a 12.1 fWAR total.
At the very least, the Royals should be a 68-win team in 2024, which would put them on par with the 2022 Texas Rangers. If Royals fans want to be more optimistic, one could add the 12 wins to their 64 Pythagorean win total from 2023, which would then put their projection to 76 wins in 2024.
So on paper, the Royals are right around that 75-win total I have projected them for this season.
To be honest, I am a little surprised by the fWAR projection totals for the Royals, though it’s likely that there will be players who underperform as well as outperform their projections.
I do think the projections for Garcia as well as Ragans and Wacha are a little on the conservative end. I also think McArthur could surpass his projections in a big way if he can transition his strong September in 2023 to a full 2024 season. So the Royals could gain a win or two here and there with some surprising performances.
On the other hand, as much as I like MJ, a 1.4 fWAR projection seems aggressive for a guy who has a career of -0.2 fWAR over two seasons. Don’t get me wrong, I like Melendez, but that’s a tall order to ask for a player who’s been such a drain defensively at both catcher and in the outfield the past two years (though I’m optimistic he could be better defensively in the outfield in 2024 now that he’s committed there full time).
The biggest area where the Royals could add that could have an impact would be the bullpen and there could be another move or two looming on the horizon. Ryne Stanek has been a name floated as a possibility for the Royals and he could add another 0.5-1.0 wins, which would help the Royals inch closer to more serious playoff contention in 2024.
Based on the Depth Charts projection, the Royals should be legitimately improved in 2024 and should win more games than they did not just in 2023 but in 2022 as well.
But in terms of playoffs in 2024? They may not be there just yet.
Remember though…it took two years for the Rangers and Diamondbacks to fully complete the turnaround.
Right now, the Royals are on a similar track.
Photo Credit: Ron Schwane/Getty Images
Mr. O’B, With the improvements to the rotation, can I assume that Zach Greinke will not be coming back, even if he wanted to. Also, there seems to be a growing movement that wants totrade M.J. Melendez. I see him as the only outfielder whohas any value at all. Your thoughts?
I think it’s still possible, but I get the feeling that Greinke won’t be back. Maybe he would accept a bullpen role, but with Matt Sauer a Rule 5 pick needing that spot, I’m not sure Greinke fits that. I am not sure anyone else will be picking him up, so if he does come back it will be with Royals and for a cheap amount.
I think MJ is the most likely trade candidate too. While I think he will be better defensively, he’s been a drain in the OF over the last two years. His projections are still optimistic but if he has another year like last year or even the year before, I think that value sinks fast. If they want to trade him, now is the time to do it, but I am not sure they want to as they want a young core around Bobby and I’m sure Bobby probably wants MJ to be part of that along with Vinnie, Maikel, and maybe Massey.
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