Opening Day at Kauffman Stadium is just two days away, and it seems like the Royals are ready to go for Thursday’s 2025 kickoff against the Cleveland Guardians.
On Tuesday, before their final spring exhibition game, the Royals announced another slew of roster moves.
Although the Royals have yet to announce an official 26-man roster, the bench will likely consist of Freddy Fermin, Mark Canha, Dairon Blanco, and Cavan Biggio.
Fermin and Canha had solidified roles on the bench before Tuesday, especially after the Royals traded for Canha over the weekend. Fermin has excelled as the Royals’ backup catcher over the past two years, while Canha brings a much-needed veteran right-handed bat (and he’s been scoring the ball since coming to Kansas City this spring).
Blanco and Biggio’s additions were less confident, especially since the former had a minor Achilles injury earlier in the spring. However, Biggio has shown off his trademark plate patience in Cactus League play (.449 OBP) while Blanco has looked fully healthy both in the field and at the plate after missing a stretch of games in Arizona.
With the roster in check, I think it’s time for Royals fans to move beyond roster speculation and look toward predictions for the squad in 2025. Thus, I wanted to share my five bold predictions for the Royals for the upcoming season.
Ragans Will Be a Cy Young Finalist
Cole Ragans should’ve been a Cy Young finalist last year, but finished fourth to Detroit’s Tarik Skubal, teammate Seth Lugo, and Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase. Despite missing out on the nomination, the Royals organization paid him like an “ace” this offseason with an extension that would buy out most of his arbitration years.
With a solid first entire season under his belt and a vote of confidence from the Royals ballclub last year, I think Ragans takes another step forward in the Royals rotation in 2025.
ZiPS projects Ragans to produce a 3.51 ERA, 3.50 FIP, a 3.00 K/BB ratio, and a 3.1 fWAR in 30 appearances and 156.1 IP. Ragans should not just surpass that projection but also put up numbers that could make him a Cy Young dark horse in the American League this season.
I am a big fan of his ATC projection, which forecasts him to produce a 3.46 ERA, 3.40 FIP, 3.12 K/BB ratio, and 3.7 fWAR. He could fare even better in the ERA and FIP categories than that more optimistic ATC projection, which should boost his fWAR to the 4+ mark again (he had a 4.9 fWAR in 2024, the best mark of any Royals pitcher last season, including Lugo).
So far, his stuff has looked good this spring, with four of his five pitches possessing pitch quality grades of 50 or higher via TJ Stats (and his knuckle curve has a 49 grade, so it barely misses the mark). His zone rate has been spotty this spring (48% zone rate), and he has given up some hard-hit balls (.464 xwOBA contact). That said, his TJ profile as a whole hints at another stellar campaign from the Royals’ left-handed ace.
If Ragans is pushing toward the five fWAR mark by the conclusion of the 2025 campaign, he could not just finish in the Top-3, but perhaps win his first AL Cy Young as well.
Hunter Renfroe Will Hit 20+ Home Runs
The Royals need a thump in the middle of the batting order if they want to solidify their place in the playoffs this season.
JJ Picollo tried to pursue free-agent bats (Anthony Santander and Jurickson Profar) and ones via trade (Starling Marte and Brett Baty). However, nothing came to fruition for the Royals in this area this offseason.
Thus, production must come from within the 40-man roster if the Royals want to see improvement from the middle of the batting order.
Thankfully, Renfroe can be that hitter who bounces back and provides the much-needed bat in the middle of the lineup this season.
After a 2024 campaign riddled with injuries from the beginning (Royals fans forget he battled through a minor back injury in Spring Training), Renfroe became slimmer and more motivated to spring camp. In 14 games and 40 plate appearances, Renfroe hit .314 with a home run, 11 RBI, and a 151 wRC+. His ISO in Cactus League competition was .257, 93 points higher than what he did in his first season with the Royals.
While it’s only Spring Training stats, it’s evident that Royals fans are seeing a different Renfroe at the plate this season.
I think Renfroe mashes this season in Kansas City and gets back to the 20+ HR and 100+ wRC+ numbers that baseball fans saw from him from 2021 to 2023. Renfroe has always shown a prowess in rebounding from mediocre seasons, especially when he’s healthy, which appears to be the case for him in 2025.
Taylor Ward Will Be A Royal By Midseason (And MJ Melendez Won’t)
In addition to Renfroe, the Royals need Melendez to improve at the plate in 2025 if they want to solidify their lineup both in the short and long term. MJ has put in plenty of hard work this spring to accomplish that goal, with a batting stance and swing change demonstrating that point.
I like Melendez and have rooted for him to succeed in Kansas City in the long term throughout his career. Unfortunately, he hasn’t met expectations and ended this Spring Training campaign in Arizona with a whimper.
In 18 games and 56 plate appearances, he’s hit .250 with a 94 wRC+ and 28.7% K rate. He’s demonstrated power potential with this stroke, as evidenced by his two home runs and .212 ISO. However, the high strikeout issues could again hold him back from being an average Major League player in 2025.
Thus, I believe that Picollo will act quickly this season to improve the lineup, and Ward from the Angels could be the first target. The Royals have “reportedly” looked to acquire him before last season’s Trade Deadline, but couldn’t solidify a deal.
This time around, Picollo should complete that trade with Los Angeles. Not only will Ward arrive in Kansas City and make an impact in the outfield, but I think MJ could also be leaving the Royals with the former Angel’s arrival (whether that’s to the Angels or another club is yet to be determined).
The Royals Will Have a Top-5 Bullpen
For most of the season, the Royals’ bullpen was an Achilles’ heel for the club. From March 24th to July 31st, the Royals’ relievers ranked 23rd in the league in fWAR via Fangraphs. However, from August 1st to October 1st, they ranked 5th in fWAR. The additions of Lucas Erceg, Kris Bubic, and Daniel Lynch IV to the bullpen did wonders for the Kansas City bullpen over the last few months of the season.
Bubic will now move to the rotation with Brady Singer in Cincinnati. Based on his most recent performance today and overall spring, he should help the Royals’ starting pitching staff be even stronger in 2025.
While Bubic’s departure from the bullpen stings a little, they return Erceg, Lynch IV, Angel Zerpa, John Schreiber, Sam Long, and Hunter Harvey. The latter didn’t pitch much in Kansas City in 2024 after coming over from Washington via a trade, but he looked healthy and effective this spring.
Lastly, the Royals acquired free-agent reliever Carlos Estevez in a multi-year deal that gives the Kansas City bullpen even more depth.
Estevez is likely to start the season as the Royals’ closer due to his pedigree in that role over the past two seasons with the Angels and Phillies. However, he didn’t pitch much this spring due to some nagging issues, and his pitch quality didn’t exactly stand out via the TJ metrics.
Compared to last season, the positive thing is that if Estevez falters, Erceg and Harvey can seamlessly fill in the closer’s role (no more relying on a young and unproven James McArthur). Furthermore, they also have middle-relief depth to bridge things (Zerpa and Long had strong seasons, and Schreiber finished the year strong after a midseason lull).
Thus, the Royals bullpen is giving off 2014 and 2015 vibes. That is a good sign for the upcoming season, especially considering how those seasons ended (two AL Pennants and a World Series title).
The Royals Will Win 89 Games (And Central Division)
I will break down my full division prediction in tomorrow’s post. However, I wanted to share my full-season prediction for the Royals since most sports media are already doing that, especially with Kansas City’s over/under set at 82.5 on March 25th.
I think the Royals not only surpass that o/u win total with 6.5 more wins, a three-win improvement from a year ago. After winning 30 more games in 2024 compared to 2023, a three-win difference in 2025 seems paltry. That said, the Royals are in a different boat now in 2025, and it’s harder to win more games when there’s a bigger target on one’s back.
Still, it wouldn’t surprise me if the entire AL Central division showed some regression in negative (Cleveland, Detroit, Minnesota) and positive (Chicago White Sox) fashions. That should lower the win rate growth of the major players in the Central Division (i.e., everyone but the White Sox), making the division much more achievable for the Royals this season.
Even with the expected regression from Lugo and Michael Wacha in the pitching department and the questions that remain in the lineup (especially in the middle and bottom), the Royals are still candidates to improve slightly from 2024, which may be enough in a division that may not see any 90+ win clubs in 2025.
With that slight improvement, Kansas City will rise to the top of the Central Division, allowing the Royals to capture their first division title since 2015.
Photo Credit: Chris Bernacchi/Diamond Images via Getty Images
While I agree with most of the four predictions, for Renfroe to hit 20 Hrs, his overall hitting must improve. In order for that to happen he must have protection fore and aft.. That might ensure pitchers throw strikes at him. I still see 3b as a bigger priority than any outfield position.
Because of expansion, there’s been a major dilution of talent. We are looking at .230 hitters to fill slots usually occupied by .260 hitters. Add to this the fact that pitching has been equally affected, with the only difference being in treatment of, and recovery from injuries extending careers that otherwise would have been truncated.
Look at any contending non-expansion lineup from the late 60’s or early 70’s. In that era, Baltimore had four 20-game winners in the same season. Atlanta had 2b Felix Millen hitting 6th. Today, he would be a middle of the lineup threat.
Putting a winning team together today is harder because there are fewer certainties and more unreliable variables. Look at our AAAA outfielders. Can they perform? Yes. But once pitching adjusts to them, they fail to, successfully, make their adjustments. In theory, we have a number of prospects capable of being productive. For whatever reason they are not able to stick at MLB level. That we are not addressing that with these assets who are apparently able to perform. Waters and Velasquez are two. Melendez is three. Blanco is four. They need to perform or be traded. We can provide coaching. They must provide willingness to improve. MLBPA and the HOF are only for MLB players. We need to have them perform offensively.
Renfroe is going to be an interesting test case for JJ Picollo and this front office. How long do they stick with him? I think he’s off to a decent start, but he’s not the hitter he once had. The same question marks are there with MJ and Massey. I do think the Royals will act quickly though if any of the above aren’t performing by mid to late May, which is typically the time teams start getting aggressive with moves.
I think that ir Renfroe os bracketed by problematic hitters, pitchers will risk pitching at him. As with Waters, making contact is where it starts. Power becomes a result of contact, because it is natural in him. If he looks at his batting average as a vehicle to “total bases”, he could post serious numbers.
MJ and Massey present different challenges. Massey hits, but is, or seems, fragile. He needs to strengthen his back to stay in the lineup and produce on offense. MJ is a bit of a question mark. My guess is that his head placement has changed and he no longer tracks the ball with the bat. He is young and should not be this pressured.
Let’s say that all three wash out
… Who steps in? A free agent? Waters??? At this stage we have to play the hand we dealt ourselves.
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