Opening Day is nearly upon us. On Wednesday, the Royals shared plenty of social media posts about their kickoff at Kauffman Stadium for the upcoming 2025 season. That includes the times of the events for Thursday’s 3:10 p.m. game.
Honestly, I am pretty tired and debated not even writing this post. Returning to work after Spring Break is never an easy endeavor. However, I wanted to share at least one more set of AL Central predictions before Opening Day.
Thus, this is a condensed AL Central division standings projection. I will share a few blurbs about each team and why they will finish in their respective place for the upcoming 2025 campaign.
1. Kansas City Royals, 89-73
Call me a homer. In my last predictions on December 22nd, I projected that the Royals would finish second with an 87-75 record. While I felt good about the Royals’ chances to win the division then, I wasn’t ready to put them over the Cleveland Guardians yet.
Since then, they have acquired Carlos Estevez and added Mark Canha to the bench. Furthermore, Kris Bubic solidified his standing in the rotation with a promising spring, and Hunter Renfroe looked solid in Cactus League play. The Royals stayed healthy as a roster for the most part, with Vinnie Pasquantino looking likely to play on Opening Day after tweaking his hamstring in Spring Training.
Will there be some regression from particular Royals players this year? Absolutely. I don’t think Seth Lugo will be a Cy Young candidate again. 2025 will likely be the last season for MJ Melendez as a regular starter. There are others I haven’t mentioned who may fail to live up to expectations this season.
However, the Royals have a solid core and should continue to improve upward, with a three-win positive difference from 2024.
That should be enough to give the Royals the AL Central crown in a competitive division.
2. Cleveland Guardians, 87-75
I haven’t been impressed with Cleveland this offseason. Yes, they added Carlos Santana to replace Josh Naylor (who they traded away to Arizona). They also brought former prospect Nolan Jones back to Cleveland in a weird trade with the Rockies that required them to send away utility man Tyler Freeman. If Jones is healthy, he could provide a significant boost in the middle of the batting order.
Despite those improvements, I still think this Cleveland team is a bit worse than last season.
It seemed like a lot went right for the Guardians in 2024, and the losses of Naylor and Andres Gimenez will hurt more than they think. Plus, while their bullpen is good, the rotation is still a bit of a question mark with a mix of guys looking to bounce back (Shane Bieber, Gavin Williams, Luis Ortiz, and Logan Allen) and ones trying to prove that 2024 wasn’t a fluke (Ben Lively). It’s hard to imagine all “gelling” at precisely the right time in one season.
Stephen Vogt is a good manager, and the Guardians are a model of what “small market baseball” success looks like in Major League Baseball. However, they should regress in 2025, and Kansas City will take advantage of Cleveland taking that step back.
3. Detroit Tigers, 85-77
The Tigers did get slightly better this offseason. They added Gleyber Torres to help shore things up at second base. Tommy Kahnle was also a sneaky add to their bullpen. Furthermore, they return the reigning AL Cy Young winner in Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty is back in D-Town after a short stint in Hollywood, and Riley Greene is a budding star if he can stay healthy.
I improved the Tigers by one game from their last projection, and it’s not out of the realm of possibility that they will surpass the Guardians for second in the division.
However, I’m still skeptical about this roster making significant improvements in 2025.
First, they are still saddled with Javier Baez on this roster, and the loss of Parker Meadows to begin the season hurts (sorry, Manuel Margot isn’t the solution). Greene, Torres, and Colt Keith are intriguing talents, and Kerry Carpenter had a strong finish to the year, but I’m not as confident in this Tigers’ hitting group. Spencer Torkelson is Detroit’s Melendez to me. Furthermore, they were mediocre as a lineup until the last month-and-a-half of the season (24th in OPS and 29th in OBP).
Detroit is in a much better place now than it was a few years ago, when it was rebuilding like the Royals. However, I think the Royals need to make a significant move to make a run for the division title, and I don’t see Chris Illitch (much cheaper than his dad) making that move (at least this year).
4. Minnesota Twins, 80-82
The analytics seem to have loved the Twins the past couple of years.
Last year, they were the overwhelming favorite to win the AL Central Division. Unfortunately, they finished 82-80. Not only did they miss the postseason, but they finished 10.5 games behind the division-winning Guardians.
It’s pretty much the same story in the preseason in 2025. According to Fangraphs, the Twins have the best odds of winning the division (36.2%) and making the playoffs (55.5%). However, Minnesota didn’t do much to upgrade its roster in the offseason.
Harrison Bader and Ty France were the only significant moves, and while they are veteran pieces, they aren’t “stars” who can push the Twins over the top. Then again, Twins fans are lucky the club made any moves, especially with all the controversy regarding the Twins’ ownership and its financial problems (they are looking to sell the team).
If the Twins stay healthy, they could match or surpass their lofty preseason projections. That said, Royce Lewis is already hurt, and it’s hard to imagine Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa playing significantly more games than they did a year ago. It will also be interesting to see how the rotation fares, as Pablo Lopez took a step back, and Joe Ryan is also coming off an injury-plagued second half (he only pitched 135 IP).
Another season of slight regression is in store in the Twin Cities.
5. Chicago White Sox, 50-112
The White Sox are going to be the White Sox again in 2025.
Things shouldn’t get much worse for the South Siders after an MLB record 121-loss season. However, Chris Getz is reminding baseball fans this offseason that former Kansas City manager Buddy Bell‘s wisdom should always be on their minds, especially those of losing teams like the White Sox (and formerly the Royals).
Chicago traded away ace Garrett Crochet, and the team is bereft of any veteran talent beyond Luis Robert Jr., Andrew Benintendi, and Andrew Vaughn (Miguel Vargas has some potential, even if his White Sox debut was rough). Also, they DFA’d former top prospect Oscar Colas on Wednesday and released Brandon Drury, even though the former Angels infielder had a promising Spring Training campaign.
There are some talented arms in the White Sox organization, with Opening Day starter Sean Burke being one of them. However, there are some lean days ahead for White Sox fans in 2025, which is difficult to stomach after the club was the worst in MLB history a year ago.
Photo Credit: Ed Zurga/Getty Images
[…] Royals came into 2025 with high hopes after an 86-76 season and an appearance in the ALDS in 2024. At the very least, the club and fanbase expect to compete for an AL Central Division title this seas…. Winning a home series against the Orioles, another team with high expectations, will help Royals […]