On Friday afternoon, MLB.com Royals beat writer Anne Rogers reported that Kansas City was acquiring 1B/OF Mark Canha from the Milwaukee Brewers for a player to be named later (PTBNL) or cash considerations.
On Saturday morning, the Royals made the news official through their social media outlets.
Canha was a free agent this offseason after playing for the Tigers and Giants in 2024. He signed a Minor League deal with the Milwaukee Brewers this offseason but had struggled in Cactus League play for the Brew Crew.
In nine games and 23 at-bats with Milwaukee this spring, he hit only .087 with a .511 OPS. He did have a home run and four walks to only four strikeouts (suitable for a 1.00 BB/K ratio). However, based on his age and spring performance, it seemed unlikely that Canha would make the Brewers’ Opening Day roster. Thus, he would likely opt out of his deal with the Brewers and try to sign with another organization this offseason.
Not wanting to lose out on him as they did in the winter, Royals GM JJ Picollo opted to trade for Canha, though how much was given up to acquire the 36-year-old veteran outfielder is yet to be determined. Both sides have plenty of time to decide on the Brewers’ return, especially since Canha hasn’t been added to the Royals’ 40-man roster yet.
Hence, what are the Royals getting in Canha? Who will be affected by his addition to the roster? And how does he compare to former Braves outfielder and free agent Adam Duvall?
The Royals targeted Duvall this offseason, but he opted not to sign with Kansas City because the amount was not to his liking (Duvall wanted at least $3 million from a team this offseason). Is Canha a suitable consolation prize, or should the Royals have upgraded their offer to acquire Duvall?
Let’s break down the answers to those questions and the outlook for Canha and the Royals in 2025.
Canha Brings Plate Discipline and Contact Ability (But Lackluster Power)
The 36-year-old former Cal-Berkely product is coming off one of the worst seasons of his career on a hitting end.
In 125 games and 462 plate appearances between the Tigers and Giants, Canha posted a slash line of .242/.344/.346 with a 102 wRC+ and .310 wOBA. He showed solid plate discipline with a 0.53 BB/K ratio and 21.7% O-Swing% (6.9% lower than the league average). However, he only hit seven home runs, and his .104 ISO was his worst career mark (he debuted with the A’s back in 2015).
Furthermore, based on his Process+ rolling chart from a season ago, his absolute lack of punch on batted balls led to poor overall results in his Process+ trends despite strong marks in decision-making and contact ability.
Regarding his heat map data via Pitcher List, Canha showed strong skills in laying off waste pitches out of the strike zone. That said, he tended to have a more passive approach at the plate, which was counterintuitive at times, based on the metrics. Additionally, he couldn’t produce much of anything power-wise on pitches in the zone that should’ve been taken advantage of.
Notice in the bottom right corner of the power heatmap that there is a big blue spot right in the middle. That is not a good sign for a hitter batting in the middle of the batting order, as those pitches should lend to many run-producing base hits.
The contact ability heatmap is also concerning, as there is a lot of blue in the upper part of the strike zone. Fastballs, especially of the four-seam variety, tend to be thrown in that area. Canha’s struggles in those areas hint at struggles against fastballs in 2024, and TJ Stats data seems to back that up.
Canha only had a .303 wOBACON (wOBA on contact) against fastballs in 2024 and a 20.3% whiff rate, both below-average marks. That seems to correlate with his struggles last year in generating hard contact.
His 3.0% barrel rate, 37.7% hard-hit rate, and 0.286 xwOBA were mediocre, and that’s putting it nicely. His inability to square up fastball pitches, which tend to have the best ability to be barreled due to their velocity, likely led to Canha’s batted-ball issues.
Here’s a look at Canha’s zone wOBA chart against fastball pitches via Savant a season ago. It further illustrates his struggles against fastballs (four-seamers, sinkers, and cutters) in 2024.
He was successful on fastballs down and in, on the edges outside the strike zone (likely due to him taking), and dead middle. Everywhere else? Canha struggled to produce.
So, why would the Royals acquire Canha, who struggled last season at the plate and this spring in Arizona?
He’s been a lot more effective against left-handed pitchers, making him an ideal platoon bench.
Here’s what his wOBA zone chart against left-handed starting pitchers looked like last year.
Against lefties, he was much better on pitches on the inside part of the strike zone and in zone 3, which is up and away. Furthermore, in addition to doing better against lefties overall, he was particularly more successful in 2024 against fastballs from lefties via his wOBA zone chart results.
He demonstrated a 244-point improvement in wOBA in zone 4 (middle and inside) and a 307-point improvement in zone 6 (low and inside) against fastballs from lefties last season. Those results show Canha can be an effective platoon hitter from the right side over a 162-game season.
Thus, it makes sense that Canha could play LF for MJ Melendez or 1B for Vinnie Pasquantino when they face left-handed starting pitchers, and either of those players needs a rest.
At his age, Canha doesn’t provide much defensive value (-7.8 Def last year via Fangraphs). However, with Kyle Isbel in center, the Royals will live with below-average defense if the bat plays against left-handed pitchers.
Canha vs. Duvall: Who Is The Better Fit?
It’s indeterminate how aggressive the Royals were this offseason regarding Canha’s free agency,, but they certainly were tied to Duvall, who reportedly declined the Royals’ offer due to his desire to make at least $3 million in 2025.
Duvall was also a right-handed bat who would’ve satisfied a role similar to Canha’s. Thus, did the Royals get bailed out by Duvall not accepting the Royals’ offer? Or would Duvall have been the better option than Canha and perhaps merited the extra $1.6 million payroll boost? (If Canha gets added to the 40-man roster, he’ll make about $1.4 million.)
Let’s look at Duvall’s TJ Stats summary card from last season with the Braves.
Ironically, Duvall had the same xwOBA as Canha. His hard-hit rate was also similar (0.6% lower than Canha). That said, Duvall was much better at barreling the ball in 2024, as evidenced by his 10.7% rate, which is 7.7% better than Canha’s.
While Duvall offered the Royals more power upside, his decision-making and contact skills were much worse in 2024.
Duvall’s 27.7% whiff rate was 5.9% higher than Canha’s. Furthermore, his Process+ rolling chart produced a similar overall trend to the current Royals outfielder. It showcased a profile that inverses Canha’s regarding decision-making and contact.
Lastly, regarding his heatmap data, Duvall thrived in his power map. He produced on those pitches thrown in the middle of the zone (where Canha struggled). Unfortunately, he was much more free-swinging, and that didn’t lead to overall positive results (0.251 wOBA).
Canha provides a much more unique hitting profile on the roster than Duvall. If the Royals wanted a more free-swinging hitter with power upside from the right side of the plate, they could rely on Nelson Velazquez, Tyler Gentry, or even Drew Waters (a switch hitter).
The Royals lucked out by getting Canha over Duvall, even if it costs them roster or prospect capital.
Who’s Affected on the Royals Roster by Canha’s Arrival
The outfielder most affected by Canha’s arrival is Velazquez, who likely will be designated for assignment in the coming days.
In my last roster prediction, I moved Velazquez off the Opening Day roster due to his lackluster spring (71 wRC+ in 29 plate appearances).
However, I thought it was still possible for him to make the roster before the Canha move, as Nelly and MJ platooning in LF could provide some plate patience and power upside, even if the pairing produced a lot of strikeouts. With Canha now likely in that platoon role in LF, it’s hard to see what kind of role Nelly would have in Kansas City for 2025.
Joey Wiemer could also be affected, though the Royals’ decision on Dairon Blanco could be the more significant factor. If the Royals believe that Blanco can play center field decently (they’ve played him there this spring), then I think Blanco wins out over Wiemer for that outfield bench spot (plus Maikel Garcia could also fill in at CF).
Beyond Velazquez, the player who could be most affected by Canha’s arrival is Loftin, who I think will start in Omaha now rather than Kansas City.
Loftin has done everything this spring to prove he deserves another shot with the Royals in 2025.
In 43 plate appearances this spring, he is hitting .394 with a 193 wRC+ and 1.11 BB/K ratio. He’s demonstrating in Arizona this spring that he can be the high-contact, highly versatile player the Royals tend to love.
That said, Cavan Biggio and Harold Castro have held their own this spring with 142 wRC+ and 126 wRC+ marks, respectively. The Royals have valued that veteran presence in the clubhouse and credited it to their turnaround in 2024. However, with Adam Frazier and Garrett Hampson gone, they’re missing that element on the 40-man roster.
While I think Loftin will be more productive in the long term than Biggio or Castro, it seems likely that the Royals will give Biggio/Castro and Canha priority to start the season, hoping that their veteran presence and plate discipline can help boost the Royals lineup off the bench.
Photo Credit: Santiago Mejia/The Chronicle
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