It’s been a quiet December for the Royals, which explains the lack of posts this month, especially over the past week. Furthermore, the end of the semester is always a busy one for me professionally, but now that I am officially on Winter Break, I will try to do some smaller posts over the next two weeks.
The Royals haven’t made many moves after the Jonathan India trade, though they have been tied to possible deals involving the Mets’ Brett Baty and the Phillies’ Alec Bohm, both third basemen. This has been a busy week within the division, particularly for the Guardians. They not only traded away Josh Naylor but replaced him with Carlos Santana, who started his career in Cleveland and played with the Royals in 2021 and 2022.
The White Sox have also been busy on the transactional end, though they have been more on the prospect-receiving end of deals.
After failing to get something done at the Deadline last season, Chicago finally traded ace Garrett Crochet to the Boston Red Sox for a slew of prospects, including catcher Kyle Teel, who was once seen as a Royals draft target back in 2023 (the Royals went with prep catcher Blake Mitchell instead).
Much like the Royals, the Tigers and Twins have remained quiet since the Winter Meetings, though they have been tied to possible free agents this offseason. Both teams will probably wait until the new year to boost their roster, though Detroit seems likelier to make a move, especially after last season’s 86-76 season and appearance in the ALDS (they lost to Cleveland).
Even though there’s a lot of offseason to go, I decided it may be good, based on the current rosters, to perhaps “predict” how the AL Central division could fare in 2025.
Like last year, Vegas bookmakers predict the division’s top will be close. The over/under win totals for Cleveland, Minnesota, and Detroit are 83.5, while Kansas City’s over/under win total is 82.5. The White Sox are the lone exception, as they have an over/under win total of 51.5. Considering the South Siders lost an MLB-record 121 games last year (and Royals fans thought 2023 was bad), it’s unsurprising that betting expectations are meager, especially for a club that just traded away their best-starting pitcher this month.
Here are my early Central division predictions and win totals for the upcoming 2025 season, based on how the rosters are currently formatted today via Roster Resource.
Cleveland Guardians, 1st, 90-72
The Guardians aren’t afraid to trade away fan favorites (i.e., Naylor and Andres Gimenez), but they always try to balance their short and long-term goals with their transactions.
On one end, Cleveland loses a bit of production from their 2024 squad by trading away Naylor and Gimenez. As stated before, Santana will replace Naylor at first base. Surprisingly, the 38-year-old posted a higher fWAR last season with the Twins than Naylor with the Guardians.
Santana hit fewer home runs than Naylor (23 to 31), but Santana is a much better defender than Naylor, which may be needed with Gimenez’s Gold Glove defense no longer at the keystone position. Furthermore, the trade of Naylor could open up more everyday at-bats for first baseman/designated hitter Kyle Manzardo, who was yo-yo’d between Cleveland and Triple-A Columbus a bit last season. The former Rays prospect did finish the season with Cleveland (including the postseason) and posted a 98 wRC+ in 156 plate appearances.
The main issue for Cleveland will be replacing Gimenez’s production.
Juan Brito, who hit 21 home runs and posted a 115 wRC+ with Columbus last year at 22, will likely get the first shot at the second base job in Spring Training. However, the Guardians have seen infield prospects struggle in their first exposure to MLB pitching (i.e., Brayan Rocchio), so it wouldn’t be surprising if Cleveland acquires a utility infielder this offseason to help offer some security in the infield if Brito should struggle out of the gate.
On the pitching end, the Guardians bullpen will be the same in 2025, which is encouraging, considering the unit finished first in ERA, WHIP, H/9, and HR/9 in 2024. Emmanuel Clase finally looked human in the postseason against the Yankees, but baseball fans should expect him to remain one of the best closers in the Central, if not all, of baseball.
In terms of starting pitching, Cleveland boosted their rotation this offseason by bringing back Shane Bieber on a one-year deal.
Based on all these moves so far and what other clubs in the division have done (so far), it’s easy to see Cleveland remain the favorite in the Central. They won 92 games with a group that remains essentially the same beyond Naylor and Gimenez, and their starting pitching, a weak spot for them in 2024, should be slightly better in 2025 with the return of Bieber.
Cleveland should see a bit of regression in wins, but it shouldn’t be much unless something dramatic happens roster-wise (such as an injury). Thus, I am slotting the Guardians for 90 wins and another appearance in the postseason.
Kansas City Royals, 2nd, 87-75
Some may see this prediction and chalk it up to me being a homer (I run a Royals blog, after all). However, Kansas City will edge out Detroit and Minnesota in the Central based on how the rosters look on Sunday, December 22nd.
Based on the early Steamer projections, the Royals should be a better-hitting team overall in 2025.
Bobby Witt, Jr. probably won’t produce another 10+ fWAR season, but he should still be one of the better hitters in the American League next year. He could capture his first AL MVP if Aaron Judge regresses without Juan Soto in the Yankees lineup. Vinnie Pasquantino could be even better in 2025 if he is fully healthy and recovered from his wrist injury.
Jonathan India also gives the Royals the leadoff hitter they’ve needed since Whit Merrifield was traded away in 2022. Lastly, Maikel Garcia and Michael Massey should benefit from being in different spots in the Kansas City batting order.
In terms of the outfield, the projections aren’t as optimistic, but Hunter Renfroe and MJ Melendez are expected to produce better numbers in 2025. If both hitters can hit the 20+ HR mark and post average (i.e., 100) wRC+ marks, this Royals lineup could be much more potent next season. I still think a move happens to boost the outfield before Spring Training in Surprise, but I don’t think the Royals outfield will be as lousy-hitting-wise next season as they were a year ago.
The only area I worry about is catcher, especially since Salvy and Freddy both had career seasons offensively in 2024. Even with slight regression, though, both should be solid options behind the plate in 2025. Furthermore, if Fermin continues to hit as well as he did in 2024 and 2023, he will continue to gain more innings behind the plate, allowing Salvy to see more time at 1B and DH (which should extend his already illustrious career).
On the pitching end, the Royals did lose Brady Singer to Cincinnati in the trade for India. Still, they brought back Michael Wacha, which gives the Royals arguably the best rotation in the Central (especially in the No.1-No.3 spots with Wacha, Cole Ragans, and Seth Lugo).
Alec Marsh and Kyle Wright give the Royals some depth at the end of the rotation, though it’s possible that they may start the season in the bullpen as well. Kris Bubic is not only expected to return to starting in 2025, but he could make the Royals starting staff even more potent, especially after his stellar 2024 out of the bullpen.
On the reliever end, the Royals were a completely different unit from September until the end of the ALDS against the Yankees. Yes, the Royals bullpen ranked 20th in ERA and 23rd in WHIP for the season. However, in September/October via Fangraphs, they ranked 4th in fWAR, ERA, and WHIP. The addition of Lucas Erceg did wonders for this group, and he should continue to dominate the ninth inning for the Royals in 2025.
The bullpen should be even better with a healthy Hunter Harvey and the return of John Schreiber, Angel Zerpa, and Daniel Lynch IV, who all looked excellent during the last month of the 2024 season.
Based on the positive outlooks of their hitting and pitching for 2025, the Royals have more upside than the Twins and Tigers. That is why they should finish ahead of them in the Central (but still slightly behind Cleveland).
Detroit Tigers, 3rd, 84-78
If the Royals have the best position player in the Central division, then the Tigers have the best pitching in Tarik Skubal, who added a Cy Young to his mantle this offseason.
Skubal is a phenomenal talent, and the Tigers’ rotation, which ranked 4th in ERA and 2nd in WHIP in 2024, added Alex Cobb this offseason. However, Jack Flaherty did opt for free agency, which puts more pressure on the young Tigers starting pitchers to produce in 2025 (specifically Reese Olson, Casey Mize, and Jackson Jobe).
The Tigers bullpen also was solid last year, as they ranked 5th in ERA and 2nd in WHIP. Like Cleveland, it should remain primarily intact when pitchers and catchers report in February. However, it seems unlikely that manager AJ Hinch will be able to utilize the heavy bullpen usage he did in September and the postseason for 2025. Thus, the bullpen gaining more apparent roles out of the gate (especially the closer’s role) could help Detroit be more competitive for longer.
My main concern with this Detroit roster is their hitting was streaky last season, and metrically, they didn’t perform all that great beyond the scorching stretch in September. They ranked 24th in average and OPS and 29th in OBP last season and haven’t done much, if anything, to improve the lineup this offseason.
It seems like Detroit is banking on some key players, like Riley Greene, staying healthy while others show improvement in 2025. Spencer Torkelson, Parker Meadows, Colt Keith, Jace Jung, and Kerry Carpenter had moments in 2024. Still, they weren’t exactly consistent in 2024, and I’m not sure all five are players who will be bonafide producers in the Tigers lineup next season. I’m thinking maybe two or three at best.
If the Tigers add some hitting in free agency, they could surpass Kansas City in the Central standings. However, until that happens, they lag behind the Royals for now.
Minnesota Twins, 4th, 81-81
The Twins’s projected Opening Day lineup on Roster Resource looks similar to the group that started the season in 2024. Last season at this time, Minnesota was projected to win the division, not finish in fourth with only 82 wins.
Unfortunately, it’s hard to have faith that this Twins team, especially on the hitting end, will be consistently productive and healthy.
Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, and Byron Buxton, the central core of this lineup, all had fewer than 400 plate appearances in 2024. Edouard Julien and Matt Wallner suffered slow starts last season, which colored their overall numbers. At the same time, Austin Martin and Brooks Lee demonstrated that they still have work to do to become more reliable hitters in the Twins lineup.
Twins fans will continue to hype this lineup and position player roster. It’s understandable because, at the surface level, this team should compete with the Guardians for the top of the division with hitters like this. However, staying on the field has been something that this Twins lineup has struggled with over the past few seasons, and it’s hard to see key players like Correa, Lewis, and Buxton see more playing time in 2025 with another year of age. Typically, injuries become more likely as a player gets older, not less.
The starting pitching for Minnesota also took a step back, with Joe Ryan only making 23 starts due to injury. Pablo Lopez proved durable with 31 starts and 185.1 IP, but his ERA regressed to 4.08, 42 points higher than his mark in 2023. To make matters worse for Twins fans, Lopez is rumored to be a trade candidate this offseason.
The Twins still have a decent bullpen, especially with Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, and Cole Sands holding down those high-leverage moments in the late innings. Minnesota ranked 19th in bullpen ERA and 13th in WHIP, which isn’t bad for a team that only won 82 games. However, Duran did see some regression, as his ERA went from 2.45 in 2023 to 3.64 in 2024. Whether or not Duran can bounce back to form could determine the outlook of this Twins bullpen, not just in 2025 but beyond.
There aren’t a lot of great vibes surrounding this Twins team this offseason. Hence, it’s hard to see them showing much, if any, improvement next season unless something dramatic happens this offseason after the New Year.
Chicago White Sox, 5th, 48-114
The White Sox are at least trying to get marginally better without breaking the bank this offseason.
They added Austin Slater to the roster to give them some hitting and defensive depth. They boosted their position player depth in the farm system in the Crochet trade with Boston (Teel and Braden Montgomery were nice pulls from the Red Sox system). They also got better at the leadoff spot with the acquisition of former Cub Mike Tauchmann, whose South Side roots should make him a favorite at the newly christened “Rate Field.”
The White Sox are taking the necessary steps to get better in the long term under the financial limitations put on them by their awful owner. They also should be managed more effectively under new manager Will Venable, who cut his teeth the past couple of years as the Rangers bench coach under managing legend Bruce Bochy. They also have a pretty decent coaching staff, with many former Royals in the group.
The White Sox should be better in 2025 than they were a season ago. However, the bar is so low, and while they should see more wins next year, it won’t be a tremendous amount with the roster they currently have (and it could get even worse if GM Chris Getz trades away Luis Robert, Jr. this offseason).
Don’t expect a “Royals-like” turnaround for the White Sox anytime soon (even though owner Jerry Reinsdorf is clearly hoping for that by the number of former Royals on his coaching staff and in the front office).
Photo Credit: AP Photo/Phil Long
Isn’t it pretty to see the Central Division on the rise after so many
maligned it for so long?
We should make offerings to the Baseball Gods for Josh Naylor
being traded out of the Guards’ lineup. He, along with Jose
Ramirez, constituted the deadliest Royal-killing combo in recent
memory.
Agreed. Four teams having O/U win totals at 82.5 and above shows how strong the division has gotten over the past couple of years. Credit to some smart baseball minds in the division. Glad to see the Royals are part of that convo.
I agree that it always felt like Naylor got the best of the Royals pitching. While Santana is good in his own right, I would rather face a 38-year-old Santana at the plate than a younger Naylor.
[…] me a homer. In my last predictions on December 22nd, I projected that the Royals would finish second with an 87-75 record. While I felt good about the […]