I have been delaying this post for a few days, hoping the Royals would make some noise during the MLB Winter Meetings. Unfortunately, Kansas City has stood pat, even with other AL Central teams making significant moves during the Winter Meetings.
On Tuesday, the Cleveland Guardians made a slew of moves.
First, they traded away infielder Andres Gimenez and pitcher Nick Sandlin to the Toronto Blue Jays for first baseman Spencer Horowitz and outfielder Nick Mitchell. Hours later, they traded Horowitz to Pittsburgh for a trio of Pirates pitchers, giving their rotation and bullpen more depth for 2025.
Today, the White Sox finally pulled the trigger on trading ace Garrett Crochet, which they failed to do at last year’s Trade Deadline. White Sox GM Chris Getz reached an agreement with the Red Sox and acquired four prospects from a loaded Boston system.
While the Guardians demonstrated that they’re retooling their roster with their trade, the White Sox showed they are still rebuilding by trading away their No. 1 starter from 2024. It could be another rough season on the South Side in 2025, which isn’t encouraging for a fanbase that saw the club lose an MLB-record 121 games last season.
As for the Royals? There are no moves, just many positive interviews from GM JJ Picollo and manager Matt Quatraro.
There’s still one more day left in the Winter Meetings (they end tomorrow). Thus, I will post a recap and some takeaways on the Royals’ outlook for the remainder of the offseason, either tomorrow or Friday.
Until more pressing news breaks, I will continue my Royals Steamer projection analysis series, focusing on the infielders and their outlooks for next season.
Royals Infielder Projections for 2025
The metrics used to evaluate Royals infielders aren’t much different from those I used in my catcher projections post. Royals fans will see more variance, though, in the BsR (baserunning runs), SB (stolen base), and Def (defensive runs above average) categories with infielders than catchers, especially since infielders’ skill levels tend to be more diverse than catchers.
I didn’t review many prospects in this post, unlike the catchers. According to Steamer, utility infielder Cam Devanney (a non-prospect, really) and first baseman Jac Caglianone are the only ones explored in this sample since they were projected to have over ten plate appearances.
Witt Should Continue to Be an MVP Candidate
Witt had one of the most productive individual seasons in Royals history, especially considering the accolades he collected.
Regarding metrics, in 709 plate appearances, Witt hit .332 with a .410 wOBA and 168 wRC+. He collected 32 home runs, 31 stolen bases, 125 runs, and 109 RBI while also posting a 10.4 fWAR, the second-best mark in baseball behind only Aaron Judge (who ended up winning the AL MVP unanimously because he’s a Yankees, of course).
Steamer expects Witt to continue to produce at an extremely high level in 2025.
In 679 plate appearances, Steamer is projecting Witt to produce another 30 HR-30 SB season with 31 home runs and 36 stolen bases. They also project him to sport a .374 wOBA, 142 wRC+, and 6.8 fWAR in 2025. The only ones ahead of Witt in projected fWAR are Baltimore’s Gunnar Henderson (7.4) and Judge (7.0).
Thus, it’s unsurprising that Witt has an ADP of 1.8, meaning he should be selected first or second overall in most fantasy baseball draft formats.
Granted, Witt is expected to regress in a few categories.
Steamer projects his batting average to decline to .296, probably due to his .313 BABIP. Witt had a .354 BABIP in 2024, so a 41-point decline in BABIP, which seems like a normal regression cycle in this category, will likely lead to Witt posting a sub-.300 batting average for 2025. Witt did post .295 BABIP marks in 2022 and 2023, and his batting averages were .254 and .276 in those seasons, respectively.
On the other hand, Witt’s Process+ showed significant progress in 2024, especially in contact ability and power. That is why Witt was one of baseball’s most dominant and productive hitters last season.
The latter will be particularly important, especially if Witt wants to maintain his high BABIP. To maintain a high average on batted balls, he will need to continue hitting the ball as hard in 2025 as he did a year ago.
Thankfully for Royals fans, Witt’s 2024 hard-hit rate trend via Savant seemed to correlate closely with his power trend from his Process+ chart.
Royals fans have been waiting for some regression from Witt, especially considering the sky-high expectations that have followed him since being drafted second overall in the 2019 MLB Draft. And yet, every season, Witt continues to improve and surpasses those lofty standards.
Based on Steamer projections, Witt should have no problem maintaining his 2024 performance and perhaps surpassing some categories, depending on how his batted-ball luck and health fare in 2025.
Expect a Garcia Bounce Back
Maikel Garcia has been the subject of many trade rumors this offseason, especially after a disappointing season in which he posted a .270 wOBA, 69 wRC+, and 1.1 fWAR in 157 games and 626 plate appearances.
With the acquisition of Jonathan India this offseason, the Royals infield is a lot more crowded, especially at second base, where Garcia saw some time in 2024. Garcia played 37 games and 244.2 innings at the keystone position last year to give the Royals more lineup flexibility. That said, Garcia struggled in his first year at the position, based on the Statcast fielding daa.
Garcia’s OAA went from 15 in 2023 to 2 in 2024, and his FRV went from 11 to 1. His adjustment to second base was a key contributor to the decline in defensive production, as seen in the fielding positional chart data below via Savant.
Garcia didn’t have much data at second base in 2023 because he only had 14 attempts at the position. In 2024, that attempt number went up to 97. However, he struggled with plays toward 1B and 2B holes (-2 OAA) and straight up (-1 OAA), via Savant.
Below is a visual of that defensive production via his Statcast fielding plot charts from 2023 and 2024.
Based on these defensive metrics, I am unsure if Garcia long-term is the defensive “fit” at second base like many Royals fans believe he should be due to his hitting profile. It also seems like Quatraro thinks this, as he mentioned that Garcia should see most of his time in the Royals infield in 2025 at the hot corner.
Regarding his offensive Steamer projections, Royals fans should be encouraged that Garcia may see a bounce back in 2025 after a down 2024.
In 569 plate appearances, Steamer projects that he will hit .265 with a .305 wOBA, 94 wRC+, and post a 2.1 fWAR. Those are all promising hitting improvements from 2024 and should help Garcia be an ideal fit near the bottom of the batting order. Steamer also projects eight home runs and a BB/K of 0.43, a two-point improvement from his BB/K mark last year. His BB/K ratio would be 14 points better than Massey’s projected mark in that category.
Garcia’s defensive upside, combined with India’s arrival, could force Massey into some left-field duties for 2025 (which could help preserve his back, as he struggled with back issues in 2025). Then again, it does sound like both Massey and India will take outfield reps in Spring Training, so either second baseman could be an option in the outfield next season for the Royals.
It’s still possible that Garcia could be traded away, especially if the Royals want to upgrade in the middle of the batting order and find some power bat via trade. Garcia’s high-contact ability, patient approach, and SS/3B defensive ability make him a valuable trade chip. However, he has lost some value after a promising rookie season in 2023 (2.1 fWAR and 83 wRC+), which could prompt the Royals to hold onto him for next season.
Based on the Steamer projections, holding onto Garcia wouldn’t be the worst thing for the Royals lineup. He won’t be batting leadoff anymore and could boost the 7-8-9 part of the batting order that struggled to find consistency a season ago.
Royals Fans Need Patience With Caglianone
One set of Steamer projections that stood out was the Royals’ 2024 1st-round pick, Caglianone.
The former Florida Gator had an uneven first professional stint with Quad Cities last season. In 29 games and 126 plate appearances, Cags hit .241 with a .319 wOBA and 96 wRC+. He also hit two home runs and posted a 0.27 BB/K ratio. Despite not putting eye-popping numbers in the Midwest League, he still earned an invite to the Arizona Fall League.
Cags got off to a slow start in the AFL, but he turned it on at the end of the season to hit five home runs and produce a .749 OPS in 100 plate appearances. He showcased better power numbers in the second half of the AFL season and maintained solid exit velocities on batted balls, as highlighted by Dynasty Dugout’s Chris Clegg.
His stellar finish with Surprise helped him earn a spot on the AFL All-Star game roster and perform well in the AFL Championship game against Salt River.
Even though Cags is trending upward as a prospect, his Steamer projections should keep Royals fans realistic about his ability to contribute immediately to the Major League club in 2025.
In 59 plate appearances with the Royals, Steamer projects Cags to hit .200 with a .240 wOBA and 48 wRC+. Cags is also projected to post a -0.3 fWAR, 25.3% K%, and 0.17 BB/K ratio. That isn’t exactly a sign that Cags will contribute to the Royals lineup next season, even though his exit velocities on batted balls are among the best in the Royals organization.
Even though the Steamer projections for Cags aren’t glowing, Royals fans shouldn’t give up on Cags just yet.
Steamer projections rely heavily on past data, and there isn’t much Minor League data on Cags for Steamer to build on. While it’s understandable that his projections may be low initially for 2025, they could look very different during the middle of the year, especially if he moves to Double-A Northwest Arkansas and rakes.
Royals fans should still believe that Cags will be an essential part of this Royals core with Witt and Vinnie Pasquantino (projected to produce a 127 wRC+ and 3.0 fWAR in 2025 via Steamer). It’s just more likely that Cags will join them in 2026 rather than next season.
Photo Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
If pressed to trade a middle infielder, my choice is to keep 25 y.o. Garcia and trade Massey. I agree with you on a rebound, but Im guessing that he is approaching his potential around age 27. In some ways, Garcia is a better hitter, and durable. We missed an opportunity to trade Pratto to Pittsburgh. A Pratto-Massey deal could have netted us serious pitching. That is what they’re trading for offense.
I still like Maikel,@ 2b. In 2 years, when India’s contract expires, and if we move Jensen to 3b….it could be promising.
I do agree with you about Garcia over Massey. I would like to keep both, but I like Garcia’s profile over Massey’s, especially with Massey’s back issues, which seems like it could be a long-term thing. It is kind of a shame that they did not trade Pratto when he still had value. I get that they wanted to have a backup for Vinnie considering Vinnie’s health issues, but the Royals going with Gurriel over Pratto after Vinnie’s injury was pretty indicative of what they think of his outlook at the MLB level.
I do think Maikel can eventually play 2nd, but he seems like the kind of guy who is better when he plays one position more regularly. Thus, if the Royals can get some kind of regular rotation for him, I think we will see him get more comfortable at second defensively, which will help him long term.
My whole issue with Massey is his “fragility”. Massey is a fine 2b. But, it’s hard to contribute from the IL. A starter should play 140+ games and 450 to 500 AB. I’m not confident Massey can do that. He could platoon for a team that can afford that.
IMPO, they went with Gurriel because of experience. Pratt can repair his reputation fairly easily. He field well. The hole in his game is on offense. He could start simple. IMPO, he takes too many pitches. That’s fine if you slug 40 HR’s, but that’s not him. Contact is where he starts. Pratto may think that he’s a roster centerpiece (or was). Right now, he is a complementary player, and that is if he can hit. His job, as a corner bat is, to at least, move the runner from first to third. He could benefit from the Charlie Lau approach. Once he’s hitting .280 plus, He can try to slug. Right now, we need him to live up to the expectation that he can hit.
I agree, but Maikel stats look better at 2b than at third. He’s a middle-infielder, and he knows that the slugging expectation at third is likely beyond him. He is young for as much MLB time as he has. He can use the help. He can use further development before he hits 27. Platooning him with India and others may take pressure off him, and allow him to adapt his hitting without the pressure. But, it must be presented as a plan to help him attain a shared goal. Goal is to move him to 2b when India goes to free agency. I like the idea of signing Moncada for 2 years so he can rsurect his career at age 30 and make a good contract at 32-33 with a deep-pocket team.
We can partially solve the 3b issue by taking a catcher and transition him to corner infield when Moncada leaves..
I worry about Massey’s durability as well and agree with that role. It probably would be better served with another team in a more lefty-friendly ballpark. I think if Nick Loftin can show something or if they can find a utility player like Frazier or Hampson, trading Massey can be a little easier to part with.
I do think Moncada would be a good fit and it sounds like there isn’t much of a market for him, according to the most recent article from David Lesky of ITC. I like the idea of 1-2 years of Moncada with the idea that someone from the system, like Jensen or someone else, fills in when he leaves. I’m curious how they approach Garcia defensively this offseason because you’re right, he’s more of a 2B based on hitting profile but his defense there last year just wasn’t good metrically. I’m willing to chalk it up to his lack of experience there, so he needs to put in the work so that he doesn’t look as lost or stiff as he did in 2024. I think Maikel can, but it’s just something to pay attention to in ’25.
Moncada can,work, if we approach it as a win-win arrangement. Right now, at age 30, when his value should be at a premium, the opinion out there already has him as a bench guy. He works to contribute and we work to get him back on track. At 32, a 3 to 4 year deal is doable, if he presents at age 35 or so with better than replacement value as a hitter. He could DH a couple more years. If we convince him that playing at the K improves his career outlook and longevity, he should buy in. And he is affordable. I see it as a 90% upside signing. If it works, it might be the dal that gets us over (.280+, 25+HR, 100 rbi) and cements our lineup. If it doesn’t, he should still present a challenge to pitchers. Moncada may be a casualty of the “natural ability” syndrome. You see it more in boxing. Naturally endowed athletes get used to overpowering their opponent with their natural ability. They neglect to learn the technical side. Those who learn, thrive (Duran, Ali, etc). My guess is that Moncada may have had an ailment that hampered his hitting. Because he’s a stud, he doesn’t realize that something has changed. In compensating, he may have tweaked his hitting approach/ mechanics. It’s worth a look to Picolo & Co.
Maikel was a as, but probably played some 2b. So, we know he has range. My guess is that he does not like the dp. pivot. As I see it now, India will leave in two years. Witt will shore up Maikel, or whomever comes from Omaha. Maikel at 2b would seal the infield and thus impact team fielding, ERA, plus, pitchers will be more aggressive if they know the infield has their back… should India go on the DL, the dropoff in performance may be negligible. KeepingMaikel is really an investment. If Maikel gets ahead of schedule, we could trade rent-a-player India at the 26 deadline for a nifty haul of prospects with no loss of capability. I see nothing but upside.
[…] Witt, Jr. probably won’t produce another 10+ fWAR season, but he should still be one of the better hitters in the American League next year. He could capture his first AL MVP if Aaron Judge regresses without Juan Soto in the Yankees […]