The World Series picture is getting a bit clearer, as the Yankees hold a 3-1 advantage over the Guardians in the ALCS, and the Dodgers are up 3-2 on the Mets in the NLCS. The Yankees can clinch the series in Cleveland tonight, while the Dodgers missed an opportunity on Friday and are looking to punch their ticket to the World Series on Sunday back in Los Angeles.
For Royals fans, the World Series may be intriguing from a baseball fan’s perspective, especially with the potential for the Dodgers and Yankees, two of baseball’s most storied franchises, to clash on baseball’s biggest stage. That said, the World Series also signifies that baseball is inching closer to the offseason, a time when the “Winter Hot Stove” season begins.
The latter matters more to most Royals fans, especially considering Kansas City is coming off an 86-76 season and looking to return to the postseason in 2025.
I will write about various topics in the offseason, especially since I have more time to analyze data on players and give a more thorough analysis since the metrics aren’t constantly changing for players daily during the season. However, I will write plenty of topics about possible and actual Royals roster moves or moves around the league this winter that could affect the Royals’ outlook for next season.
In this post, I wanted to analyze the Royals players with options this offseason, whether their player, club or mutual options. To attract free agents to Kansas City last offseason, GM JJ Picollo and the Royals front office had to be creative with different incentives for players to want to come to a club that lost 106 games in 2023.
Four veteran Royals players have options this offseason, which will be sorted out five days after the World Series ends (per MLB Rules): Chris Stratton, Hunter Renfroe, Adam Frazier, and Michael Wacha. All four players saw considerable playing time in Kansas City in 2024. However, their situations could be challenging for a Royals team that wants to improve in 2025 while keeping long-term roster flexibility in mind.
Let’s break down those four players individually and what may happen option-wise with each player after the conclusion of the World Series.
Chris Stratton
Player option for $4.5 million; $0.5 million buyout if he doesn’t exercise his option
Picollo signed Stratton to help bolster a bullpen that was one of the league’s worst in 2023. Stratton had a solid 2023 with the World Series-champion Texas Rangers, as he posted a 3.92 ERA and accumulated a 1.1 fWAR in 82.2 IP. Because of his championship pedigree, it was expected that many competing teams would make a run to acquire Stratton last off-season. Thus, Picollo offered Stratton a one-year deal with a one-year player option that could accumulate to $8 million over two years.
Unfortunately, Stratton didn’t do well in 2024 with the Royals. His ERA ballooned to 5.55 in 58.1 IP, and his K/BB ratio fell from an excellent 3.24 in 2023 to 1.33 in 2024. That was the lowest ratio in his career since his rookie season with the Giants in 2016.
Thus, it’s unsurprising that Stratton struggled overall in Kansas City, especially in high-leverage situations. He had eight meltdowns last year, the fifth-most of Royals relievers a season ago. In addition, his -0.75 clutch was the third-worst mark for Royals relievers, ahead of only Will Smith and James McArthur (-0.82).
A big issue for Stratton was the decline in velocity and quality of his four-seamer. It averaged 93.1 MPH in 2023 but fell to 91.8 MPH in 2024. Furthermore, he also saw a dramatic decline in his four-seam PLV with the Royals.
Overall, the other four pitches in Stratton’s arsenal in 2024 were compelling, including his new slider, which he threw nine percent of the time last year. However, his four-seamer was so bad that it brought his overall PLV from 5.12 in 2023 to 5.01 in 2024. He did throw the four-seamer 17% less than in 2023, but it was still his primary pitch.
It seems likely that Stratton will exercise his player option for 2024. The only question will be whether the Royals will exercise the $0.5 million buyout to remove him from the roster. (Edit: The $0.5 million is what the Royals would pay if Stratton DOESN’T exercise his player option and opts for free agency.)
On one end, the bullpen had much better options than Stratton at the end of the season. Even though he was on the IL, Stratton would likely not have made the playoff roster if he had been healthy. The return of Hunter Harvey in 2025 and the possibility of moving Alec Marsh to the bullpen this spring could make Stratton even more expendable this off-season.
Conversely, Stratton had four intriguing offerings in his arsenal last year. Could he shift his four-seamer from a primary pitch to a third or fourth option? Could he also rely more on the sinker and find a velocity bump on his fastball pitches after an entire offseason of getting healthy?
Suppose he does return to the Royals in 2025. In that case, it’s because Royals pitching coaches Brian Sweeney, Zach Bove, and Mitch Stetter believe that kind of adjustment can happen, which will help the Royals keep a veteran presence in the bullpen (albeit in a much lower-leverage role).
Hunter Renfroe
Player option for $7.5 million
The Royals were looking for some power and a veteran approach to their lineup last offseason, and Renfroe was an option that wouldn’t break the bank. While Renfroe didn’t offer much defensively, he had hit at least 20 home runs each season from 2021 to 2023.
Unfortunately, the results were pretty mixed for Renfroe in 2024.
The 32-year-old outfielder struggled through various nagging injuries, only playing 120 games and accumulating 424 plate appearances. The latter was Renfroe’s fewest plate appearances in a non-COVID season since his rookie year with the Padres in 2016.
In those plate appearances, the stats weren’t great.
Renfroe only hit .229 with a 92 wRC+ and 15 home runs. His BB/K ratio did rise from 0.35 in 2023 to 0.43 in 2024. However, his barrel rate was only 6.6%, and his hard-hit rate was only 39.4%. Those were slight improvements from 2023 (with the Angels and Reds), but it wasn’t enough to provide consistent production in the middle of the Royals lineup. As a result, he produced a -0.1 fWAR, his worst mark in that category since 2020 with the Rays.
The PLV heatmap data also showed some declines in Renfroe’s power ability, decision-making, and contact, another concerning trend.
It did seem that Renfroe opted for an approach focused on swinging less, as shown in his swing-aggression heatmap in 2024. However, the power occurred on the edges of the zone for Renfroe this year (not precisely sustainable), and while he made more contact on the inside part of the zone, the power didn’t correspond with that contact. Furthermore, he also struggled with his decision-making on those pitches in the middle of the zone, especially compared to 2023, when his decision-making in that area was his strength.
Renfroe’s value is at its lowest right now, and if he opts out of his current deal, he would likely be lucky to receive a Minor League invite from another team.
At this point in Renfroe’s career, he’s a one-trick pony, and that one trick is fading fast. Though his arm strength is stellar (it ranks in the 91st percentile via Savant), his lack of range negates his defensive value. It’s one thing for Renfroe to be that way defensively if he’s hitting 20+ home runs. But only 15? That’s not desirable for any MLB team, let alone the Royals.
Thus, Renfroe will likely opt into his player option, and the Royals must decide what to do with Renfroe in 2025. He probably will make the Opening Day roster in 2025 because of his veteran status. However, how long will Picollo hold onto him, especially if he gets off to a similar cold start to the one he had last season?
I guess that Picollo will tolerate a lot less from Renfroe in 2025, especially if they can make a splash for another bat via free agency this offseason.
Adam Frazier
Mutual option for $8.5 million; $2.5 million buyout
The Royals acquired Frazier because they wanted a veteran player who could offer positional versatility in the field. Frazier’s signing was beneficial initially, especially after Michael Massey started the 2024 season on the IL.
Unfortunately, Frazier’s season was another one of decline. That said, in their end-of-the-season press conference this past week, Picollo and manager Matt Quatraro made it sound like Frazier had been battling a thumb injury for most of the season.
If he was healthy, would Frazier have produced better results than the 63 wRC+ and -0.6 fWAR in 294 plate appearances with the Royals in 2024? Perhaps, but he only accumulated a 0.4 fWAR in 455 plate appearances with the Orioles in 2023.
Thumb injury or not, regression was expected from Frazier at the plate in his first season in Kansas City, and his Process+ chart data from the past two years illustrates that power has been an issue for Frazier at this point in his career.
It appears that Frazier is well-liked by his teammates and the organization. I also admit that he probably offered veteran intangibles that can’t be measured statistically.
That said, the Royals will likely pay the $2.5 million to buy out Frazier and look for another utility player, via free agency or within the organization, to replace him in 2025.
Michael Wacha
Player option for $16.5 million.
Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo got all the attention of Royals fans and nationally this past season, and rightfully so. Both are Cy Young candidates and accumulated 9.6 fWAR together in 2024. For comparison, the ENTIRE Royals pitching staff in 2023 only produced an 8.0 fWAR. That shows the impact Ragans and Lugo had on this staff.
However, Michael Wacha was also a stud in his first season in Kansas City.
In 166.2 IP, Wacha produced a 3.35 ERA, 3.22 K/BB ratio, and 3.3 fWAR. His 29 starts were his most since 2017 with the Cardinals when he made 30 starts. His 3.3 fWAR was also a career-high, thus showing that Wacha not only earned the contract from the Royals this past offseason but surpassed expectations as well (his fWAR translated to about $26.7 million via Fangraphs).
Thus, it’s likely that Wacha will opt out of the second year of his two-year deal and look for a bigger payday on the market. The Royals could be in on those discussions, but it won’t be an easy decision for Picollo and the front office, especially if they want to spend money and improve in other areas of the roster.
Based on an article by MLB.com’s Anne Rogers, what happens between the Royals and Wacha could dictate Picollo’s approach this winter.
While Wacha will undoubtedly opt out of his deal, it will be interesting to see what approach the Royals take regarding a possible Wacha contract offer/extension.
The Royals could offer Wacha a three-year deal, perhaps around the $60 million market value that Spotrac is circulating. Picollo could give him two guaranteed years and perhaps backload the contract with a player option for the third. That format would resemble what the Royals offered Seth Lugo last offseason.
If Kansas City isn’t confident in its outlook for retaining Wacha, Picollo could offer him a qualifying offer (roughly around $21 million). The Royals would receive a compensation round pick if Wacha doesn’t sign. While Wacha was excellent this season, he has an extensive injury history and is so reliant on his changeup being a premium pitch. If the changeup regresses in quality, he could get more exposed based on the pitch quality of his other offerings.
As Royals fans can see in the arsenal charts from 2023 and 2024, his changeup over the past two seasons has lifted much of his overall PLV metrics.
Wacha’s sinker, slider, and curve were rated below-average offerings on a PLV end in 2024. While they did see slight improvements in 2024, his phenomenal changeup (5.95 PLV) is a big reason why he produced a 5.28 PLV overall with the Royals.
The questionable sinker and breaking PLV metrics make me a bit concerned about Wacha’s long-term outlook, even over a two-to-three-year period. That is why I would support the Royals going with the qualifying offer route, hoping they can stock their farm system through the draft a bit if Wacha takes another deal elsewhere this offseason.
Photo Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images
If Wacha were to leave, we might be looking at Kyle Wright filling his spot, and maybe signing an Alec Marsh type in 40 year old Max Scherzer, who at the back of the rotation would match well to opposing starters. He also might help the younger starters as an in-house role model off what they could be.
Renfroe is just an older Drew Waters. If he chooses to leave, we have Tyler Gentry and Waters to plug into RF. Waters should be told in no uncertain terms that he is not there to be a Dave Kingman with 40 HR/.220 slash. He is to try to make solid contact, and that his three most important stats are OBP, Batting Average and total bases. In order to hit for total bases, you must first hit the ball.
I am ambivalent about Frazier, as he does give you a good effort every day. As long as Massey continues fragile, we need a good glove and stick guy to spell him. Frazier can be that guy.
Same goes for Stratton. My guess is he has a minor, yet nagging, injury that might account for his loss of velocity. He needs to get healthy AND increase his Arsenal so deception can replace power as a tool.
I also think Juricson Profar would play well at the K. He could lead off. MJ would DH and come off the bench. A strong effort should be made to sign him.
I think the Royals will make an offer to Wacha, but with Kyle Wright available, I don’t think they’re going to break the bank. I like the idea of getting a vet or honestly, bringing back Michael Lorenzen who can go back and forth in the bullpen wouldn’t be a bad idea, especially since I don’t think it will take much to re-sign him.
I would be curious to see what they do with Waters this offseason. It seems like he’s not in their plans, but you never know. Another one that will be interesting is Nelson Velazquez. Down season for sure from Velazquez but he has pop, which is something they need. Maybe platooning him with MJ in LF wouldn’t be a bad idea and if MJ struggles, then Nelson could maybe take over full time.
Frazier and Stratton are kind of meh for me too. Nick Loftin struggling didn’t help and don’t see them bringing back Hampson. Javier Vaz could be an option that could fit that mutli-utility role like Frazier but not sure if he will be ready. Stratton I’m more high on. A lot of his issues could be tied to velocity as you mentioned. The other pitches had great quality. If he can get that velocity back, he could be a sleeper in the bullpen.
I like Profar a lot, but it sounds like he loves San Diego and will hold out until he gets something from them, as was the case last offseason.
“The only question will be whether the Royals will exercise the $0.5 million buyout to remove him from the roster.”
Just FYI, the “buyout” only means the Royals would have to pay $500k if Stratton declines his option. Most likely is he exercises his option and they’ll have to pay $4.5M.
Thank you for the clarification! Made that edit in the post!
[…] Frazier, Michael Wacha, and Hunter Renfroe could become free agents this offseason. That depends, though, on whether or not they opt into their player option (as in Renfroe and […]