Oof. It’s been a rough couple of weeks of work, which explains why I have not posted here in nearly 14 days.
Hopefully, things will die soon, allowing me to post more frequently, starting in April. I am certainly paying attention to the Royals’ upcoming season. Still, my lack of Tweets has also demonstrated that I am having difficulty finding the bandwidth to post as much as I want on this blog (and “Farm to Fountains”).
I’ll also be honest: The NCAA Tournament (Go Zags) and the whole stadium vote stuff on April 2nd (I’m not going to tell you where I lean because I can’t vote in it, so don’t ask) have dampened my enthusiasm a bit leading up to Opening Day. That’s sad because the Royals have invested a ton in this team and may have their most competitive team in at least half a decade (hopefully).
Nonetheless, I have some thoughts about the 2024 upcoming season, and in this brief post, I will share five “bold” predictions I will have for the Kansas City Royals this year.
Cole Ragans and Bobby Witt, Jr. Will Be All-Stars
The Royals made a lot of splashes this offseason by improving the pitching (Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, Will Smith, Chris Stratton, Nick Anderson, and John Schreiber) and adding some key depth pieces hitting-wise (Hunter Renfroe, Garrett Hampson, and Adam Frazier).
However, the two biggest pieces to this Royals team, both in 2024 and long-term, are Cole Ragans and Bobby Witt, Jr.
Cole Ragans came over from Texas last season in the Aroldis Chapman trade and Ragans has become one of the hottest pitchers in baseball since then. ATC, Steamer, and The Bat are projecting Ragans to produce fWAR numbers over 2.5 this season, which leads Royals starting pitcher candidates for the upcoming season. The optimistic projection makes sense, especially after Ragans earned August Starting Pitcher of the Month honors.
To put icing on the cake, the Royals named Ragans their Opening Day starter for their March 28th matchup against the Minnesota Twins.
Ragans isn’t the lone Royals player with superstar potential though.
Witt produced a phenomenal campaign in 2023, highlighted by not just a 30 HR-49 SB season, but a 5.7 fWAR season which led all Royals position players. Witt is the most promising Royals position player since Carlos Beltran and maybe George Brett and the Royals are certianly marketing him as “franchise player” like those two former Royals.
Additionally, the Royals made him the highest paid player in Royals history with a historic extension this offseason.
While the Royals are trying to play the “long game” with Witt’s future (i.e. locking him down somewhat now during his “prime” years), he also is expected to have an impact in 2024 in a year where the Royals hope to improve in the Central. The Royals will have a shot to be competitive and maybe win the division if Witt can match or perhaps improve upon the numbers he posted last season.
The Royals still have a long way to go as an organization (especially when it comes to continuing to build their underrated farm system) but expect Ragans and Witt to be representing Kansas City in the midsummer classic.
James McArthur Becomes the Sole Royals Closer
With the addition of Smith, Stratton, Anderson, and Schreiber this offseason and manager Matt Quatraro’s Tampa Bay background, it would make sense for the Royals to start out with a “closer by committee”. After all, Smith did see a lot of time as the Rangers closer in 2023, and in many cases, the reliever with the most “closer” experience often gets first shot at the job.
That said, I think McArthur not only takes the job from Smith and the other veteran Royals relievers, but he establishes himself as the Royals’ closer in the long-run as well
I talked about McArthur’s special pitch mix, how he’s improved since being acquired from the Phillies last year, and why Quatraro and Royals fans should be optimistic about his future in my most recent post for “Farm to Fountains”.
McArthur may not have the ninth solely to himself in April and May. I would expect Quatraro to utilize the Royals bullpen by matchup, especially when the veterans are fully fresh.
By June though, expect McArthur to be the “guy” for the remainder of the year and beyond.
Brady Singer and Alec Marsh Become Relievers
Singer made some positive noise early this spring, as reports came out that he had been working diligently on adding a sweeper and four-seamer more reguarly to his pitch mix this offseason (as I wrote about on “Farm to Fountains”).
Unfortunately, Singer was batted around toward the end of Cactus League play, as he ended posting a 7.31 ERA in five starts and 16 IP.
Even though Singer may be throwing more than two pitches this spring, it will be interesting to see if he follows through with having more offerings than his sinker and slider in 2024. He made that promise before with his changeup, and he hasn’t really utilized it all that much since debuting in 2020.
The lack of a versatile mix reminds me of Michael Kopech of the White Sox, who’s struggled as a starter due to his limited repertoire. Despite the White Sox being picked to finish at the bottom of the Central standings, Kopech lost a spot in the rotation and was moved to the bullpen this spring (though it could be a good thing, especially with the White Sox lacking a clear closer).
I could see the same happening to Singer due to his limited pitcher arsenal. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Singer in the bullpen by August or September.
As for Marsh, he had a great spring, as evidenced by his 3.73 ERA and 2.86 K/BB ratio in 17.2 IP in Cactus League play. The former Arizona State product was so impressive this spring in Arizona that he earned the fifth spot in the rotation over 2018 1st-round pick Daniel Lynch IV and veteran Jordan Lyles.
This should be good news about Marsh, right? So why am I think he’s going to be in the bullpen by the end of the year?
I still worry about his ability to minimize the longball.
While Arizona is hitter-friendly, his HR/9 in Cactus League play was 1.53, which isn’t that far off from the 1.94 HR/9 he allowed last season in his rookie debut. Marsh has great stuff. However, I think he’s a guy who works better in 2-4 inning stints rather than 5-7 inning ones that are expected from a MLB starter.
Marsh has upside as a pitcher (more upside than Singer in my opinion). That said, his upside may be better realized out of the bullpen than in the rotation, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Marsh primarily pitch out of the bullpen by July (maybe sooner).
Hampson, Frazier, and Renfroe Won’t Be On This Team in August
The Royals added some veteran bats to the roster this offseason to help avoid the slow start that plagued the club in 2023. Even though their overall resumes have some flaws, Hampson, Frazier, and Renfroe have all had recent years where they were quite productive for their respective squads.
While some Royals fans were outraged by the moves, it was made clear by JJ Picollo and Quatraro that none of the guys would block any of the young Royals position players, as long as the Royals young position players performed. That seemed to be the case in Cactus League play, as Kyle Isbel, Michael Massey, and Nelson Velazquez still got plenty of at-bats.
The only caveat is at second-base, as Massey’s lower back injury may thrust Frazier into the starting lineup on Opening Day (with Massey likely starting on the IL).
Even though I think Hampson, Frazier, and Renfroe will help add some stability and a vetern presence to the clubhouse to begin the year, I don’t imagine the three will be in Kansas City for long.
Hampson and Frazier are both on reasonable one-year deals (with Frazier having a team option that likely won’t be exercised) that will make it easy for the Royals to stomach should they part ways with the pair of utility guys. As for Renfroe, he’s a bit more expensive, and his deal has a player option, which gives Renfroe more negotiation power. Still, if the Royals were willing to eat money on the Hunter Dozier deal, they’ll do the same with Renfroe if they can’t trade him away.
The three new Royals position players could be key for the Royals in April and May who could receive a lot of innings and at-bats (especially in utility roles for Hampson and Frazier).
However, I expect the young players to take steps in the right direction and eventually push out those three by mid-year, much to the relief of Royals fans who were worried that those three would block the Royals’ young players long-term.
The Royals Will Finish 3rd in the Division
I don’t know if the Royals will win more than 80 games in 2024. Heck, I’ll be happy if they win 75 games (which is my prediction).
That said, I think this Central division is especially weak, and I think the Royals will surprise and finish 3rd in the AL Central this year, even if they only produce 75-77 wins this year.
The Twins seem to have a clear edge in this division, which is why I think they will coast to first place in a sizeable fashion. Their combo of elite starting pitching (led by Pablo Lopez) and some big bats make them a favorite for the division. However, it will be interesting to see how they weather the absence of Jhoan Duran, as he will likely begin the year on the IL.
On the flip side though, Detroit carries a lot of injury risk in the rotation, and their bullpen doesn’t really impress me (not an Alex Lange fan). Cleveland is losing pitchers left and right as Gavin Williams will begin year on IL and they lost Trevor Stephan and Daniel Espino already for the year. Furthermore, they DFA’d Myles Straw, who returned to the organization, but will begin the year in Triple-A.
I have a feeling either the Tigers or Guardians (most likely) will trip up this year, which will open the door for the Royals to move up in the AL Central standings in 2024. The Royals haven’t finished higher than 4th in the division since 2017, when they finished 3rd with an 80-82 record.
Could the same happen this year? It’s in the realm of possibility, and would be a step in the right direction for a club that hasn’t had a winning season since their World Series title in 2015.
Photo Credit: Ed Zurga/Getty Images
The Royals Reporter 
Mr. O’B, Whither Nick Pratto? Is he one of the early call-ups,assuming he doesn’t fall flat in Omaha? Also, it seems to methat Nelson Velazquez is on a very short trial; I don’t thinkQ and staff think his ’23 production was legit. Agree or not?
LikeLike
[…] O’Brien goes bold with five predictions on Royals Reporter, including two moves from the rotation to the […]
LikeLike
[…] O’Brien gives us his five bold predictions for the season: “That said, I think McArthur not only takes the job from Smith and the other veteran Royals […]
LikeLike