Royals Opening Day Lineup and Bench Predictions (Volume 1)

Sorry for the lack of posts and Tweets over the past two days. I am on Spring Break, and I spent the last two days watching Big 12 basketball all day at the T-Mobile Center (and fared pretty unsuccessfully betting-wise, too). Now that I am no longer in conference tournament basketball mode, I can focus on some Royals posts.

In my last post, I predicted the Royals’ pitching staff, including rotation and bullpen. Shortly after my post, the Royals announced they would option reliever John McMillon to Triple-A Omaha.

McMillon was seen initially as a candidate to make the Opening Day roster, but he started spring late due to his recovery from an injury at the end of last year. Manager Matt Quatraro spoke to the media after the McMillon announcement and said that he’s still part of the Royals’ bullpen plans, but they wanted to give him more time to get ramped up and ready for the 2024 season.

Honestly, it’s a smart move that I predicted after it took so long for McMillon to make his Cactus League debut. While I think McMillon has a shot to be the Royals’ closer by the end of the year, the Royals do not need to rush him, especially with veterans such as Will Smith, Nick Anderson, Chris Stratton, and John Schreiber joining the bullpen this season.

In this post, I will look at the Royals’ position players and predict the starting lineup on Opening Day and the bench.

Starting Lineup

  1. Maikel Garcia, 3B
  2. Bobby Witt, Jr., SS
  3. Vinnie Pasquantino, DH
  4. Salvador Perez, C
  5. MJ Melendez, LF
  6. Hunter Renfroe, RF
  7. Michael Massey, 2B
  8. Nick Pratto, 1B
  9. Kyle Isbel, CF

The 1-6 spots in the lineup should be pretty chalk (i.e., predictable).

Garcia finished the season as the Royals’ leadoff hitter, and Witt seemed to thrive after being moved from the leadoff to the No. 2 spot. Vinnie makes sense in the three-hole due to his ability to hit for power and get on base. Salvy and MJ make sense at four and five as Salvy can clear the bases frequently with his power, and MJ can not just do the same but can also lead off innings due to his surprising speed and baserunning ability (his baserunning ability ranked in the 88th percentile last year, according to Savant). Renfroe also makes sense in the six-hole, as his ability to bring production in that spot in the lineup should help the Royals drive runners in, which was a problem for the Royals in 2023, as Anne Rogers talked about in a recent article.

Massey likely will make the roster and be the Royals’ starting second baseman on Opening Day, especially after a strong Cactus League campaign.

The former University of Illinois product is hitting .304 with a 1.000 OPS, including two home runs in 23 at-bats. Finding the right spot in the lineup was tough for Massey, but the seven spot makes sense since he has the speed and baserunning ability to lead off innings. Furthermore, he had 84 plate appearances in that spot a season ago, so there would be some familiarity in that part of the lineup for Massey.

The biggest surprise in my lineup is Pratto, the Opening Day first baseman, and in the eight-hole. As I said in a post on “Farm to Fountains,” Pratto has done everything this spring to not only be a candidate to make the Opening Day roster but also bump Nelson Velazquez off of it.

Here’s how Pratto and Velazquez have performed thus far in Cactus League play.

  • Pratto: .400 average, 1.164 OPS, 2 HR, 1 BB, and 4 K in 25 AB.
  • Velazquez: .185 average, .489 OPS, 0 HR, 3 BB, and 7 K in 27 AB.

Pratto has demonstrated more power and a better ability to hit for average this spring. Velazquez has drawn more walks, but he has also struck out more. Furthermore, Pratto has received many reports that his groin is fully healthy, which wasn’t the case in the past two years.

Conversely, reports haven’t been great about Velazquez’s size at camp. Josh Vernier, in his new podcast “All Things Vern,” mentioned how much “bulkier” Velazquez looked in Surprise, and he didn’t really say it in an “endearing” way. Additionally, Jack Johnson of the “Locked On Royals” podcast also mentioned how Velazquez looked far heavier than his listed 190-pound weight.

Pratto came into camp motivated and focused on taking a spot in the lineup, while Velazquez may have come to Surprise a bit too comfortable. The Royals will probably reward Pratto for that focus and his Cactus League performance with a spot on the Opening Day roster, which Pratto missed last year.

Does that mean Pratto will be the more productive hitter by the end of the year? I’m not sure. I still think Velazquez’s offensive upside is more significant than Pratto’s.

However, I think it may be until late May or June when we see Velazquez back up in Kansas City and mashing home runs.

Bench

  • Freddy Fermin, C
  • Adam Frazier, 2B/OF
  • Garrett Hampson, INF/OF
  • Nick Loftin, 2B/3B

Fermin and Frazier are the two prominent bench players. Fermin had a great 2023 and should help Quatraro give Salvy days off behind the plate to help keep Salvy healthy and fresh in 2024. As for Frazier, he’s seen a lot of time at different positions this spring, and he should be an excellent backup at second, especially if Massey gets off to a cold start like he did a season ago. It seems like Frazier is due for a bounce-back season and could be a nice trade piece at the August Trade Deadline.

Hampson is a more intriguing option off the Royals bench.

First, I get the feeling that Hampson will see a lot more time in the outfield than infield once the regular season starts. He has played mainly in the outfield, particularly center field, in Cactus League play. However, he hasn’t been great in the outfield the past two years, as he has accumulated a -2 OAA in 2022 and 2023, according to Statcast. That said, he did accumulate a +10 OAA in 2020 and 2021, so the potential is there.

Hampson has had a mediocre spring, hitting .217 with a .637 OPS in 23 at-bats. He has turned it on lately, and while he has struck out eight times, he has accumulated four walks, suitable for a 0.50 BB/K ratio. The Royals will undoubtedly take that kind of BB/K profile off the bench, especially with a sprint speed that ranked in the 98th percentile last season via Savant.

As a result, Dairon Blanco gets bumped off the Opening Day roster since Hampson will be taking his innings as the primary right-handed outfielder when Isbel and/or MJ need a day off against left-handed starting pitching. I also think Blanco’s calf injury, while not severe, might prompt the Royals to take it slow with him.

The Royals want to get off to a good start, and having a fully 100% health-wise roster is a good start to making that happen. The good thing for Blanco is he has Minor League options (while Hampson doesn’t). So if Hampson struggles, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Blanco take his place by June.

That leaves one remaining spot.

I did toy with the idea of Austin Nola since he had that experience with Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo last year in San Diego. However, he’s not hitting well (.222 average), and he still has a Minor League option, so it makes sense to start him in Omaha and bring him up should Salvy or Fermin get hurt (which is possible since both saw time on the IL a season ago).

I also considered Drew Waters, who is hitting .316 with a .907 OPS in 19 at-bats this spring. That said, I don’t think the Royals want to utilize Waters in a role where he plays only a couple of times a week. I think the Royals let Waters build on this positive spring momentum in Omaha, and then bring him up should an outfielder like Isbel or maybe even MJ struggle.

Instead, I decided to go with Loftin in this spot.

With Hampson likely to play mainly in the outfield, I think Loftin becomes the Royals’ go-to guy at second base when the Royals face left-handed starting pitchers. Loftin is hitting .400 with a 1.138 OPS this spring and has one walk to one strikeout in 20 at-bats. I don’t think Loftin has much to prove in Omaha right now, so I only see him there to get him daily at-bats until a spot opens up.

That said, while getting to play every day makes sense at the surface level, I think JJ Picollo and Quatraro want a roster that will help them win, especially right away in April and May. Loftin helps accomplish that goal, even if it’s only 3-4 times a week initially. Unlike Waters and, to an extent, Blanco, Loftin doesn’t strike out often and makes contact at a high rate. That is valuable to have, especially with a starting lineup with many potential “whiffers” (i.e., MJ, Salvy, Pratto, Massey, etc.).

Furthermore, I also think Loftin shows a bit more power in his second go-around in the Majors, as he did show flashes of that power at times in his limited MLB sample in 2023.

Having Loftin on the Opening Day roster also puts a microscope on Massey, which is needed for the Royals to avoid a disastrous start like 2023.

If Massey has another poor April like he did in 2023, the Royals can gradually give Loftin more plate appearances and innings at second base. Quatraro wants to play multiple guys and use various lineups, and Loftin helps accomplish that goal better than a year ago when Matt Duffy and Nicky Lopez rotated at second base with Massey.

I don’t know if Loftin will start on Opening Day, March 28th. However, we will see him in a Royals uniform for the National Anthem against the Twins.

Photo Credit: Ed Zurga/Getty Images

5 thoughts on “Royals Opening Day Lineup and Bench Predictions (Volume 1)”

  1. If I were the Royals, I’d look at areas of need and sign a couple of the remaining free agents and stick them in AAA. And AA for spring training. Then, bring them up as needed.

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