The Royals won 2-1 against the Blue Jays in Thursday afternoon’s series finale with Toronto (despite a ridiculous three-hour and thirty-eight-minute rain delay).
The win helped cap a 4-3 homestand against the Blue Jays and Orioles, two teams expected to compete for playoff contention in the AL East in 2024. Furthermore, the Royals also improved their record to 16-10 for the year, guaranteeing Kansas City a winning month in April.
This strong 26-game start is encouraging for Royals fans, especially since they didn’t get their 16th win of the 2023 season until after Memorial Day.
The Royals won in a much different way this homestand compared to their previous one when they swept both the Chicago White Sox and Houston Astros (both of whom have combined for 10 wins this year).
Against the White Sox and Astros, the Royals’ starting pitch and a barrage of big hits clinched their wins in each game during the homestand.
In this one against the Orioles and Blue Jays, timely hitting, taking advantage of defensive miscues (especially against Toronto), and a strong bullpen helped them earn a 4-3 record in this latest stretch at Kauffman Stadium.
In terms of the bullpen, the emergence of Angel Zerpa, Chris Stratton, John Schreiber, and James McArthur has been encouraging, especially since all four relievers had mixed results in the first couple of weeks of play.
Against the Blue Jays, that bullpen group has been essentially solid, as they were able to help carry the Royals to two wins in a row despite a subpar start from Michael Wacha on Tuesday and an Alec Marsh start on Wednesday that was cut short due to injury.
Due to the Marsh injury, which doesn’t seem serious, the Royals added to their bullpen depth today by calling up Will Klein. Klein has produced a 0.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in nine outings and 11 IP with the Storm Chasers so far this season.
Klein brings a high-velocity fastball (averaging 96.2 MPH in Omaha) and a promising cutter to the Royals’ bullpen, precisely what this group needs (they lack high-velocity fastball types). He is also another weapon Matt Quatraro can use out of the pen in medium to high-leverage situations (which he saw in Triple-A this year), especially when Stratton, Schreiber, or McArthur need a night off.
On the other hand, Klein’s presence in the bullpen raises questions about the future and role of Will Smith, a free-agent acquisition who has gotten off to a brutal start in his return to the Royals.
In nine outings and eight innings of work this season, Smith is posting a ridiculous 12.38 ERA, 6.90 FIP, 2.38 WHIP, and a 1.40 K/BB ratio, all severely underwhelming marks. Even though many Royals fans initially thought Smith would compete with McArthur for the closer’s job this year, Quatraro has rarely used him lately, with his last outing being on April 21st in the series finale against the Orioles (and in a low-leverage outing to boot).
It’s still early in the 2024 season for Smith. Furthermore, as rough as Smith has been, the Royals are paying him $5 million this season. Thus, it’s unlikely that the Royals do anything with him anytime soon, even though he is on a one-year contract.
Therefore, with Smith at least likely to be with this organization until the All-Star Break, what kind of role will Smith have going forward, especially with the addition of Klein to the bullpen?
Furthermore, can Smith succeed in that role, whatever it may be?
Issues With Command Carrying Over From 2023
The Royals acquired Smith in free agency mainly to address the bullpen’s command and control issues over the past couple of seasons.
According to Fangraphs, the Royals bullpen produced a K-BB% of 11.5% from 2022 to 2023, ranking 25th in the league, ahead of only the Angels, Reds, Nationals, Rockies, and Athletics. Last year, Smith produced a K-BB% of 16.8% and a career K-BB% of 19.3%. Hence, it was expected that Smith would help boost the Royals bullpen in this category in 2024.
Unfortunately, that’s been far from the case this year.
Smith’s K-BB% is 4.6%, the fourth-worst mark of any Royals reliever thus far. Smith has seen a dramatic decrease in his K% (15.9%) while an inverse rise in his BB% (11.4%). Not only do those trends contribute to his lackluster K-BB%, but they are also the worst marks of his MLB career by a considerable margin.
The decline isn’t coming out of nowhere, especially on a strikeout end. Last year in Texas, Smith saw a slight dip in K% from 24.9% in Atlanta and Houston in 2022 to 24.3% in 2023 with the Rangers. However, based on his K% rolling chart, his K% has dropped off, not just compared to last season, but his career overall.
According to his rolling K% chart via Savant, Royals fans can see that Smith has not been below average much in his career. However, it’s been a different story in 2024 and even at the end of 2023, as his rolling K% has been under the league average for quite some time.
Vice versa, the left-handed reliever has also seen a dramatic spike in BB%, contrasting his career norms.
At times, walks have been an issue for Smith, so this problem isn’t exactly new.
As evidenced in the chart above via Savant, he posted high walk rates from 2020 to 2022. That said, he was really good at limiting the walks in 2023, and unfortunately, that flipped significantly between the end of the 2023 season and the start of this season in Kansas City.
In fact, his command issues surfaced after the All-Star Break last year, and consequently, Smith posted some brutal numbers in the second half for the Rangers (which resulted in him losing his closer’s job to Jose Leclerc).
Smith’s September 2023 looks quite similar to what he’s been producing in 2024 with the Royals. He allowed many runs and walks without many strikeouts in a limited number of innings (eight, to be specific).
That said, Smith did have some encouraging numbers in April and June last year, where he limited the walks and maximized the strikeouts.
Could that happen again?
A lot depends on him finding his groove again with his pitch mix.
Smith’s Slider Struggling
To see how Smith’s pitch mix fares now compared to a year ago, I think a good practice would be to compare his pitch arsenal PLV from 2023 to this season.
In 2023, Smith relied on his slider, throwing it 50% of the time, according to Pitcher List. It made sense, especially since the pitch had a PLV of 5.19 and a CSW% of 33.1%.
This year, his slider usage has dropped 16%, as it used five percent less than his four-seamer (used roughly the same percentage as a year ago). According to Pitcher List, the slider has been less effective on a PLV end, as it is only posting a 4.81 mark, which ranks below the 25th percentile.
Interestingly enough, the slider still generates strikes at a reasonable rate. Smith is producing a 34.7% CSW with the pitch, which is actually 1.6% better than a year ago. However, his ICR (ideal contact rate) has risen from 24.6% in 2023 to 50% in 2024.
Thus, opposing hitters are barreling his slider better this season, which is why they are producing a .405 wOBA on the pitch. Last year, he only allowed a .151 wOBA on the slider.
Let’s examine, via pitch type analysis via PLV, how the slider differs from the past two years in certain categories.
Honestly, it’s tough to see a lot of difference in pitch characteristics, as the 2024 ones mirror the attributes from 2023 pretty closely. There’s not a whole lot different when it comes to movement. Based on these pitch characteristics, the only significant variance in the slider is that Smith’s PLV is 40 points lower this year.
On a positive note, the slider’s xwOBA this year is .271. While that is nearly 100 points higher than his slider xwOBA from a year ago, that mark is currently his best-performing pitch in that category.
Thus, a big issue for Smith could simply be command of the slider, not necessarily its pitch quality or shape.
This year, Smith’s slider heatmap data indicates that command may indeed be the issue, especially when compared to his heatmap from a season ago.
As Royals fans can see above, Smith is catching way too much of the plate with his slider, especially compared to a year ago. His slider catching too much of the zone has resulted in base hits like this one to Luis Robert of the White Sox (which ironically was Robert’s last hit before he hit the IL).
Smith’s other pitches, including his curve and four-seamer, still need much work this year.
That said, if Smith can fix the command of his slider, that could help make his other three pitches (four-seamer, curve, and changeup) more compelling.
Which, in turn, would help Smith turn things around with the Royals this year.
The Royals Still Need Smith (Though Not As Much As Initially Imagined)
The fact is that the Royals need not just quality arms in the bullpen but a quantity of them.
This past homestand proved that, as the Royals’ starting pitchers were chased early on multiple occasions by the Orioles and Blue Jays, the Royals’ bullpen had to carry them on the mound. Thankfully, the bullpen has gotten slightly better this year, and the Royals were able to swing four games in this homestand.
Nonetheless, the Royals taxed their bullpen a bit in this homestand. That means the Royals will need other, fresher relievers to step up soon, especially in this upcoming road trip starting in Detroit on Friday.
Smith needs to be one of those relievers who steps up.
On the other hand, Quatraro may benefit from using Smith in lower leverage situations, especially in this Detroit series.
Surprisingly, Smith, despite his ineffectiveness, has the fourth-highest leverage index when entering a game via Fangraphs. That hasn’t paid off for Smith or the Royals, as Smith has four meltdown outings this year, which leads Royals relievers.
It may be worthwhile for Quatraro to utilize Smith during this upcoming road trip in some low to medium-leverage situations. The hope will be that Smith can get some confidence and perhaps turn things around once the weather heats up.
Smith has actually done the best in medium leverage situations this year (4.15 FIP) compared to high (6.15 FIP) and even low (8.65 FIP). Thus, Quatraro doesn’t need to just use Smith in blowouts. He can also utilize the lefty veteran in the middle innings when the game is still within reach, regardless of whether it’s in the Royals’ favor or not.
Even though he’s been frustrating, the Royals shouldn’t be throwing the towel in on Smith just yet. A modification in his slider could have a significant impact, and Smith could return to being a quality reliever sooner than Royals fans think.
Of course, that slider will be the key…
Because if Smith still struggles with his primary breaking offering, then it isn’t out of the question to think that Smith could be gone shortly after the All-Star Break.
Photo Credit: Scott Taetsch/GettyImages
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[…] O’Brien covers the slow start by Royals reliever Will Smith: “Even though he’s been frustrating, the Royals shouldn’t be throwing the towel in on Smith […]
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