The full Royals Spring Training roster has officially reported to Surprise, Arizona. Thanks to the work of the Royals beat reporters and team media folks, we’re seeing a lot of early content of pitchers and position players working out at the Royals Spring Training complex over the past week.
It’s exciting to see the new Royals Spring Training caps (powder blue hats are back baby!) and many Royals players, both familiar and unfamiliar, training for the upcoming Cactus League campaign. The Royals’ first official Spring Training game will be on Saturday against the Rangers, who also share the Surprise complex with Kansas City.
In the coming few days, I will look at some key position battles that Royals fans should pay attention to once Cactus League play begins.
In this first post, I will be looking at not just three Royals pitchers who are trying to make the Opening Day roster, but the pitches that could be key this Spring to whether or not they will get the opportunity to be in Kauffman Stadium on March 28th.
Here are those three pitchers on the 26-man roster bubble, and what will be a key pitch to watch from each of them over the next month.
Daniel Lynch’s Curve
A lot of the talk regarding Lynch this offseason and early in spring camp has focused on his four-seam velocity.
In 2023, Lynch only averaged 92.6 MPH on the four-seamer, a 1.4 MPH decline from the previous season. However, while Lynch’s four-seamer didn’t sport great velocity, it fared well in a lot of different categories, which can be seen in his PLV pitch-type card from a season ago.
Though the velocity was well below the league median, his release extension was far above that mark. That signifies that Lynch has some potential to earn some velocity back on that four-seamer as long as Lynch’s arm is fully healthy (which it wasn’t a year ago). Even without the premium velocity, the pitch also proved to be a solid one on a PLV end, as evidenced by his 5.07 mark on the pitch, which was above the league median.
While the four-seamer will be important to pay attention to, I am more concerned about the breaking arsenal of Lynch, which ranked in the 33rd percentile in breaking run value, according to Savant.
Lynch’s primary breaking pitch last year was a slider, which he threw 18.8% of the time. However, while the pitch produced a solid ICR% (ideal contact rate) of 34.4%, his other metrics on the pitch were mediocre.
Last year, his slider produced a CSW% of 23.7% and a PLUS% of 51.3%, which ranked in the 12th and 17th percentile in those categories, respectively. Conversely, his curveball, which he threw 8.5% of the time, produced a CSW% of 36.2% and PLUS% of 53.6%. Those ranked in the 83rd and 46th percentile, respectively, which are much more positive.
Additionally, the curveball also fared a lot more positively in a variety of different categories on his PLV pitch card.
The only category where Lynch’s curve was below average was in PLV and even then it was only slightly below that league median. Lynch primarily utilized the pitch against right-handers in 2023 (only threw the curve five times to left-handed batters out of a total of 68 pitches). Considering the movement of the pitch, which is sharp and more downward-dropping than a typical curve, it makes sense why Lynch didn’t utilize it much against lefties.
Here’s an example of the curve generating a swinging strike of Colorado’s Elehuris Montero back in a June start at Kauffman.
Lynch proved to be quite effective with his four-seamer and changeup, with the latter producing a run value of +11 a season ago, according to Savant. The big issue will be whether or not he can make his breaking repertoire more robust in 2024.
The former Virginia product has utilized his curve a little bit more each and every year since making his debut in 2021. That can be seen in the pitch usage chart below, via Savant.
If Lynch can have three above-average pitches in his repertoire (at least on a PLV end), then it’s likely that Lynch goes from fringe starter to a guy whom the Royals can build around in the rotation not just for 2024 but beyond as well.
It will be interesting to see if Lynch will utilize that curveball more (i.e. a double-digit percentage in terms of usage) and slider less this spring to make that possibility a reality once the regular season begins.
Carlos Hernandez’s Splitter
Hernandez had a rough last couple of months of the season, which was disappointing to see as many Royals fans hoped he’d be able to take the closer’s job after Scott Barlow was dealt away at the Trade Deadline. After the All-Star break, Hernandez posted a 7.82 ERA and 1.93 WHIP in 30 appearances and 25.1 IP, according to Savant.
Last year, the new coaching staff, led by pitching coach Brian Sweeney, encouraged Hernandez to let it rip with the four-seamer more. That led to some early success and it made sense considering that the pitch showcased so many positive characteristics a season ago, based on his PLV pitch type card.
Royals fans may not realize it, but Hernandez’s four-seamer has elite pitch potential, especially when it’s commanded properly (it wasn’t in the second half).
The issue though is trying to find the right complimentary pitch with the four-seamer. For the past two years, that pitch has been the splitter, which he threw 11.1% of the time in 2023.
The splitter was an interesting pitch as it did generate a decent amount of swings and misses last year.
For reference, it sported an 18% SwStr%, which ranked in the 51st percentile. Unfortunately, it was not a good pitch when it came to finding the strike zone overall (22.3% CSW) and generating chases (32.6% O-Swing% which ranked in the 25th percentile).
Here’s a look at some of the other characteristics of the splitter via his PLV pitch-type card.
There’s a lot to be encouraged about with Hernandez’s splitter: good velocity, extension, vertical break, and adjusted vertical approach angle. Thus, the tools are there for it to be a decent pitch. Unfortunately, the xZone% and PLV weigh it down considerably, especially compared to the other pitches he sports in his repertoire.
Notice below how his splitter was his worst pitch on a PLV end last year.
The sharp movement of the pitch when located effectively could cause opposing hitters to chase and look silly in the process. That was the case with this splitter thrown by Hernandez back in May against San Diego’s Rougned Odor.
Unfortunately, Hernandez just didn’t produce that kind of quality of splitter enough last season, and thus, the mediocre results with the pitch (and overall) followed.
Can Sweeney and the coaching staff (i.e. Zach Bove and Mitch Stetter) help him hone things on his splitter this spring and help him maintain its effectiveness over the 2024 season? If so, Hernandez could be a valuable reliever for this club, even with all the additions this offseason.
If not, he could be the odd man out in the Royals bullpen and find himself working on that splitter in Triple-A Omaha rather than in Kansas City.
Sam Long’s Slider
Other arms like Dan Altavilla and Tyler Duffey are getting more attention as non-roster invitees this spring. However, I don’t think Royals fans should sleep on Sam Long, a lefty who formerly pitched in the Giants and Athletics organizations.
Even though we’re barely a week into camp, Long has been drawing some attention from the Royals media, including KC Star Royals beat writer Jaylon Thompson.
The focus in Thompson’s tweet was on Long’s slider, which was his third most-thrown pitch a season ago (12.4% usage). However, when looking at his overall PLV metrics, the slider was actually his best breaking pitch, and second-best pitch overall.
The curveball was pretty bad last year on a PLV end with a 4.75 mark, which ranked in the 25th percentile. It also fared pretty poorly in a lot of different categories as well, based on his PLV pitch type card, which isn’t good to see for a pitch that he threw 30.5% of the time in 2023.
Now, let’s take a look at how his slider fared in those same categories via his PLV pitch-type card.
Granted, Long is still below the league median with his slider in a lot of categories. That said, he’s close to being toward that average and maybe above with the right adjustments. If Long can get that “refinement” with the Royals, as Thompson suggested, the pitch could be not just an average pitch, but a plus-breaking offering in his repertoire.
In fact, let’s take a glance at how his slider compared to his other pitches in terms of strikes, whiffs, and batted-ball contact quality, via Pitcher List.
When it came to CSW%, the slider lagged behind the curveball. However, the slider posted the second-highest SwStr%, highest O-Sw%, second-best PLUS%, and second-lowest ICR%. Those are all features of a good secondary pitch that requires to be thrown more than just 12.4% of the time, as it was a season ago.
In fact, here’s a look at Long’s slider making 2022 Rookie of the Year Michael Harris II of the Braves look absolutely silly in a May 31st game in Oakland.
Right now, the Royals lack a clear left-handed option beyond Will Smith. Lynch could fill in that role, but it may be more as a hybrid starter/long reliever (with the former happening more if Jordan Lyles struggles out of the gate).
Jake Brentz offers potential, but he hasn’t pitched since 2022 and even then, his sample that year was small (and his 2021 was inconsistent). Anthony Veneziano was okay in a small sample in 2023, but he may benefit from more seasoning in Omaha, especially if the Royals decide to move him to the bullpen full-time.
Long on the other hand? If the slider can be refined into a true weapon and utilized more?
Then it becomes possible that Long could not just contribute to the Royals bullpen, but turn into a sleeper reliever who could return a surprising trade package of value by the Trade Deadline, much like Ryan Yarbrough last August.
Photo Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
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