Just when Royals fans think that JJ Picollo and the Royals front office are done building the roster for the offseason, they got out and made a surprising move the evening before their first Cactus League game of the 2024 season.
Nola originally signed a Minor League deal with the Brewers back in January. However, Milwaukee ended up signing Gary Sanchez on February 20th and finalized the deal on the 21st after taking some time to negotiate the specifics of the deal.
With Sanchez and former Tiger Eric Haase (who also signed a free agent deal with the Brewers) already on the 40-man roster, the Brewers decided to release the 34-year-old former San Diego catcher. The Royals, with just Salvy and Freddy Fermin as the only catchers on the 40-man roster, acted swiftly, picking him up minutes after Nola became available.
So why did the Royals pick up Nola, who is 34 years old and coming off a career-worst -1.0 fWAR season in 2024 with the Padres? Let’s look at a few reasons why Picollo opted to acquire Nola, even though the Royals seem pretty set on the active roster with Salvy and Fermin.
Royals Committed to Building Depth
One consistent message this offseason from Picolllo as well as Royals manager Matt Quatraro was that it was important for the Royals to build depth throughout the roster.
The Royals learned about the lack of dependable depth on the 40-man roster the hard way in 2023 as injuries to key players (Vinnie Pasquantino and Kris Bubic for example) and the lack of backup options ended up leading to a 56-106 season.
We have seen the Royals build depth this winter in the bullpen (Will Smith, Nick Anderson, Chris Stratton, Matt Sauer, and John Schreiber), rotation (Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo), infield (Garrett Hampson), and outfield (Hunter Renfroe). That said, while they did acquire some catchers on Minor League deals this offseason (Sandy Leon and Rodolfo Castro), it was difficult to tell if those were legitimate acquisitions (i.e. with chances to make the active roster) or if they were simply brought in to give a couple of more backstops for pitchers to throw to in Surprise.
With the acquisition of Nola, it appears that the Royals were indeed looking for a possible 3rd catcher to add to the 40-man roster this offseason.
Nola is a proven veteran who has accumulated a 3.3 fWAR over his career in 345 games played. Furthermore, he also has one Minor League option remaining, which also gives him an advantage over Leon (who couldn’t be optioned to the Minors if he made the MLB club).
According to Anne Rogers, the Royals’ MLB.com beat writer, the Royals picked up Nola to add more depth at the catcher position in 2024.
Last year, Salvy only played 91 games behind the plate, which was the second straight season he played fewer than 100 games at the catcher position. Fermin played in 65 games despite not making the Opening Day roster, but he also missed some time down the stretch of the 2023 season due to injury. Nola gives the Royals some veteran insurance should the injury bug bite Salvy or Fermin in 2024.
Granted, there may be some worry from Royals skeptics that Nola could mean Fermin will be on his way out. Losing Fermin for a guy coming off a career-worst season is a scary thought, especially for a team looking to improve in the AL Central this year.
The Nola guaranteed MLB deal means that Fermin will have to earn his backup catcher spot a bit more this spring than initially expected. After all, it was unlikely that Porter or Cropley would’ve made much of a push this spring after both were released from the 40-man roster this offseason.
On the other hand, Nola will likely be the third guy on the organizational catcher depth chart behind Salvy and Fermin. Roster Resource is projecting this on its own Royals depth chart, with Nola beginning the year in Triple-A Omaha.
Nola’s Experience With Wacha and Lugo Helps
Nola was initially drafted by the Seattle Mariners in the 5th round of the 2012 draft and made his debut with the Mariners in 2019 during his age-29 season. In his rookie year, Nola hit 10 home runs and posted a 114 wRC+ and 1.2 fWAR in 79 games and 267 plate appearances.
Nola ended up getting traded to the Padres at the Trade Deadline during the COVID-shortened season in 2020 and he’s spent the last few seasons in San Diego before being released this offseason. Nola produced a 1.0 fWAR and 101 wRC+ in 56 games in 2021 but struggled through injury and inconsistency in 2022 (0.1 fWAR) and 2023 (-1.0 fWAR), which led to his release this offseason.
One benefit Nola brings to the Royals’ catching corps is that he has familiarity catching new Royals starters Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo, who both pitched in San Diego in 2023. Granted, Wacha and Lugo were both adamant about how excited they were to work with Salvy in Kansas City.
On the other hand, I imagine having a possible backup catcher like Nola available when Salvy needs a day off is probably encouraging to Wacha and Lugo, as they know Nola has experience with their pitch mix and repertoire, unlike other catchers currently in camp in Surprise.
Can Nola Rebound After a Rough 2023?
There’s no question that Fermin outperformed Nola last year.
In his rookie season, Fermin posted a 108 wRC+ and 1.5 fWAR in 70 games and 235 plate appearances. That was much better than Nola’s 52-game sample, which can be seen in the Fangraphs comparison below.
Nola did outperform Fermin in BB/K ratio a season ago (0.58 to Fermin’s 0.26) and Nola wasn’t helped by a super low BABIP (.184). On the other hand, Fermin was 2.5 fWAR better than Nola a season ago, and Fermin also outshined Nola in terms of catching defense in 2023 as well.
Here’s a comparison of Nola and Fermin’s catcher percentiles from last season, via Savant.
As Royals fans can see, Fermin was better than Nola in nearly every catching category a season ago (blocks, throwing, and framing). That’s a big reason why Fermin likely remains the Royals’ backup catcher for now, even though Nola received an MLB deal from the Royals.
On the flip side, I don’t think Royals fans should totally dismiss Nola based on his performance in 2023 alone (or even 2022).
Nola has gone through his fair share of injuries the past couple of years (he’s only played in a combined 162 games in 2022 and 2023). Furthermore, it appeared that a concussion and vision issue stemming from a broken nose seemed to hold him back in his final season in San Diego.
Granted, if Nola is not fully recovered, it is likely that he’ll not only stay in Omaha but could find his way out of the Royals organization in a few months, especially if Carter Jensen makes progress in Double-A Northwest Arkansas. Jensen has been turning heads already this Spring, but he still is likely at least a year away until he makes his MLB debut (and even that’s optimistic).
On the other hand, the Brewers were willing to give Nola a shot to earn a spot on the MLB roster this winter. Additionally, the Royals probably gave Nola an MLB deal because they knew Nola would get a slew of offers from other clubs, though of the Minor League variety. Giving Nola an MLB deal probably sealed the deal on Kansas City’s end.
Regardless, there was a market for Nola this offseason, which means that clubs were confident he has recovered from the injury issues that plagued him a season ago.
Hence, what if Nola is fully healthy this spring?
Then it is possible he can bounce back to maybe 2020 or 2021 levels when he was a 1.0 to 1.8 fWAR catcher in a limited number of games. After all, from 2020 to 2021, he produced a combined 2.8 fWAR for the Mariners/Padres.
That kind of production and profile wouldn’t be bad for the Royals to have from a no. 2 or 3 catcher on the organizational depth chart.
Photo Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
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