My first volume of AL Central Predictions came back in December. Back then, the Royals hadn’t signed Bobby Witt, Jr. to a massive extension, but they had just signed Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, and Hunter Renfroe. Furthermore, not a lot of projections had come out yet, so it was difficult to tell what the computers were saying not just about the Royals, but the other four clubs in the AL Central.
With pitchers and catchers starting to report around the league this week (with the Royals reporting on Valentine’s Day), I figured it would be a good time to re-examine my initial AL Central predictions and make some updates, based on the moves other clubs have made since December. I also will put the PECOTA and Fangraphs’ Depth Charts projections for each set of standings, just to give those reading this blog an idea of what the computers are saying about each club in the division.
This is going to be a quick post as I know people have other plans for this Sunday (i.e. the Super Bowl). Nonetheless, here’s volume 2 of my AL Central predictions for the upcoming 2024 season.
1. Minnesota Twins (84-78)
Volume 1: 85-77; PECOTA: 89-73; Depth Charts: 84-78
The biggest move the Twins made since my last predictions was trading Jorge Polanco to Seattle in exchange for reliever Anthony Topa and starter Anthony DeSclafani. They also received cash in the deal, which allowed them to sign Carlos Santana in free agency as well.
In one way, it’s a good long-term move for the Twins, especially since they have Edouard Julien to replace Polanco at second base with Nick Gordon and Willi Castro filling in as needed. Additionally, Topa strengthens a bullpen that looks questionable beyond Jhoan Duran and Jax Griffin, and DeSclafani gives them a safety net should any starters struggle with injury (Chris Paddock being the prime example).
So why am I projecting the Twins for one fewer win since my last prediction?
Talent-wise, the Twins are obviously the best team in the Central. They have some good depth position-wise, which is why they were willing to trade away a guy like Polanco (it certainly opens things up for DH at-bats for Alex Kirrilloff). I also think their pitching staff looks a whole lot better after the trade, which was a concern after they lost Sonny Gray to free agency this offseason.
That said, so much depends on health with this Twins team, and I just don’t trust the track record.
The Twins are banking on Byron Buxton to be an everyday centerfielder (or play there more than he did last year). They expect Max Kepler and Royce White to be fully healthy, and Santana to have another 20+ HR season at age 38. Those things could all happen, sure. But I’m not banking on it, and if (and when) those injuries do happen, the Twins will slide a bit.
The good thing for Minnesota is that the division is weak, which is why they will win the Central despite only winning 84 games. However, don’t expect the Twins to have a stranglehold on this division for long.
2. Cleveland Guardians (80-82)
Volume 1: 74-88; PECOTA: 83-79; Depth Charts: 80-82
I initially had the Guardians finishing in 4th in the division in my first set of predictions with a record of 74-88 (putting them behind the Royals). I’m changing my tune in this set, though I still predict Cleveland to finish with a losing record.
When I made my initial predictions, I didn’t think Shane Bieber would be with the Guardians, let alone be back to his old Cy Young form. However, it seems like the Guardians will not only continue to stick with him, but it also looks like he’s made some nice progress in improving his velocity at Driveline this offseason.
I do think the manager change in Cleveland will have an effect on the club in the short term. While I respect Stephen Vogt and think he was the right choice, replacing Terry Francona is a tall order. I also think the Guardians always over-performed every year due to Tito’s influence. That will be felt in Vogt’s first year, which is why I think they are an 80-82 team.
On the other hand, I like this roster a lot more than I did a couple of months ago. The rotation has health issues like the Twins lineup, but if we’re going to give the benefit of the doubt to the Twins, we should be doing the same for the Guardians rotation. I’m not as sold on Logan Allen (he didn’t impress me when I saw him pitch at the K last September), but rounding out the rotation with Tanner Bibbee and Gavin Williams is scary.
The bullpen isn’t as great (though old friend Scott Barlow in a setup role will help), but Emmanuel Clase is still a dominating closer, regardless of the likely regression he will see in 2024. The Guardians always seem to find relievers who aren’t on the radar in the winter and end up having solid seasons in middle-relief roles. That’s not a manager characteristic but a system-wide pitching-development trait that should be maintained despite the managerial transition.
In terms of the lineup, they’re definitely taking some risks on some young guys who should get more at-bats than they did a year ago.
Will Kyle Manzardo and Brayan Rocchio be as good as advertised? Will Gabriel Arias put together a solid full season after showing flashes a year ago? Was Estevan Florial simply not given enough of an opportunity in the Bronx?
The youth-focused position player strategy may not work (look at the Royals last year), but I can respect Cleveland for at least having a plan here that could benefit them in the short and long term.
3. Detroit Tigers (77-85)
Volume 1: 80-82; PECOTA: 75-87; Depth Charts: 80-82
I really liked Detroit early in the offseason, which is why I predicted them to finish second. The Tigers have been stocking young talent for a while, and there will be even more of that talent on display in Spring Training, even if they likely won’t make the Opening Day roster.
Before the Royals made their deal for Witt, the Tigers also extended top prospect Colt Keith, who’s expected the Tigers’ Opening Day second baseman.
Keith hasn’t played a game yet in the Majors, but it seems like Tigers president Scott Harris is confident that he will be worth it and have an immediate impact on the lineup in 2024.
The Tigers have been the “sexy” pick to win the Central by many experts. However, I have been less impressed with this squad since my last prediction.
A big reason why is that I am not buying the predictions on this Tigers pitching staff. Tarik Skubal is a stud, but I’m not fully confident that he will stay healthy. I also think he started to show some flashes of struggle down the stretch that I think we will see more often over a full year.
Jack Flaherty and Kenta Maeda are certainly upgrades, but they have their own histories of performance and injury issues. They could be really good, or they could be on the shelf before Tigers fans know it. I don’t blame the Tigers for acquiring them, especially since they came on relatively inexpensive deals. That said, I don’t think they’ll have as much impact as some may think.
Lastly, on the pitching end, the bullpen overperformed a season ago. I’m looking at the group and I’m not really seeing how it’s a significantly better group than what the Royals assembled this past offseason. I could see the Tigers see some regression in the bullpen this year, which in turn could hurt their chances.
In terms of the lineup, there certainly is prospect star power.
A couple of years ago, a lineup with Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene, and Parker Meadows would be the talk of all of baseball. They still can be solid, but I just don’t think they’ve really lived up to the hype over the past couple of years, though Meadows and Torkelson did finish the year strong. It does feel like there’s an assumption that these Tigers’ position prospects will just be good automatically. And yet, it’s not like the Tigers have a great track record recently of this success. The Royals and Tigers have been around the same level of quality since 2018 honestly.
The Tigers certainly have the potential to be a sneaky team in the Central. For now, though, I’m cooling my jets on them until they can prove it on the field, especially on a bullpen and lineup end.
4. Kansas City Royals (75-87)
Volume 1: 75-87; PECOTA: 70-92; Depth Charts: 76-86
The Royals are the only team in my predictions who don’t have a change in their win-loss record from the Volume 1 version. I know Royals fans are hoping for a playoff push, especially after a monumental Witt extension that proved to be the largest one in franchise history.
I also think the predictions are a little down on a few players, with Michael Wacha being the primary target (as I wrote about in a post yesterday). Thus, I think the Royals will surprise some folks, especially after losing 106 games a season ago.
That said, it’s tough to turn things around in one year, regardless of the front office’s effort. Winning 10 more games than the previous year is tough, so I think the Royals winning 19 more games than the previous year would be a cause for celebration. In fact, in most years, that kind of turnaround would be celebrated by most Royals fans.
This is 2024 though. The Chiefs are aiming for their 3rd Super Bowl victory in five years. Expectations are higher for sports teams in Kansas City now. 75 wins, even after a 100-loss season, may not be satisfying enough for Royals fans who are itching for the club’s first winning season since their 2015 World Series title.
It’s progress nonetheless and that’s what this organization needs. Remember, the Rangers and Diamondbacks had seasons of progress in 2022 before winning pennants in their respective divisions in 2023.
5. Chicago White Sox (64-98)
Volume 1: 60-102; PECOTA: 66-96; Depth Chart: 68-94
It’s easy to snicker at the White Sox for accumulating so many former Royals players and prospects. That was a big reason why I pegged them for 102 losses in my initial predictions. After all, why would the White Sox model themselves after a franchise that hasn’t had a winning season since 2015?
That said, I think Chris Getz is having a better offseason than some may think.
The fact of the matter is this: the White Sox have been a mess the past couple of years both in terms of talent and chemistry.
On a talent end, Getz has brought an influx of fresh faces to the organization who have shown flashes of potential at the Major League level.
Getting Dominic Fletcher, a former top prospect who wasn’t getting enough of an opportunity in Arizona, was a great move. Getting Erick Fedde, another former top prospect who revitalized his pitch mix, was a great move. Getting John Brebbia, one of the Giants’ more underrated relievers last year and who has a connection to new pitching coordinator Brian Bannister, was a great move. There’s risk there in all those moves, but if you’re a team that’s “rebuilding” those are the kinds of transactions that a team needs to make.
In terms of chemistry, it also appears that Getz also seemed to clean house and bring in guys who wouldn’t rock the boat.
It was obvious that there was tension between Tim Anderson and other members of the club a season ago (maybe longer). Though Anderson was once an All-Star, he just simply wasn’t good last year and wasn’t trending in the right direction for 2024. The White Sox made the right move parting ways with him while they could (after all, he hasn’t been picked up by anyone yet this offseason). While manager Pedro Grifol now has no excuses when it comes to fixing the clubhouse, one has to appreciate the effort Getz has made this offseason to improve an area of the organization that’s been an Achilles heel since they fired Rick Renteria.
Even though it would make sense for the White Sox to be bigger spenders considering their market size, the reality is that owner Jerry Reinsdorf is one of the cheapest owners in baseball. Shockingly, the Royals have given a $100+ million extension to a player before the White Sox. However, Getz is doing his best within the current system, and I think the White Sox could be more competitive in 2024 than they were in 2023.
They will still lose a bunch of games. However, thanks to some of the recent moves they have made, I see them avoiding the 100+ loss mark this year…barely.
Photo Credit: Emilee Chinn/MLB Photos via Getty Images
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