Diving Into Three Royals Hitters Bouncing Back After Rough Stretches

The Royals couldn’t pull off the sweep against the Mariners on Sunday. However, they made it enjoyable as they came back to tie it in the ninth and fell one short in extra innings after James McArthur gave up three runs in the top of the 10th.

While the Royals bullpen continues to be inconsistent, the hitters have been a different story.

On Monday, Kansas City ranked 7th in batting average and OPS, 5th in runs scored, 10th in OBP, and 13th in HRs. Thus, it’s not a surprise that this Royals’ offense ranks 9th in fWAR and 11th in wRC+, according to Fangraphs.

Furthermore, this group of hitters has shown much better discipline at the plate compared to seasons past.

The Royals’ BB/K ratio is 0.40, tied for the ninth-best mark in baseball with the Giants, Diamondbacks, Cubs, and Rangers. To compare, the Royals’ BB/K ratio last year was 0.29, 11 points worse than this year’s group and the third-worst mark in baseball.

A big reason for the Royals’ improvement on the hitting end can be the recent resurgence of some hitters struggling earlier in the season.

Two are veteran acquisitions who were seen as “disappointments” initially but have really taken off at the plate since the middle of May. The other is a Royals-developed position player who’s gone through ups and downs in his short MLB career but still sports some long-term upside if he can make the proper adjustments.

Let’s look at the recent strong performances from Adam Frazier, Hunter Renfroe, and MJ Melendez and if they can continue to perform at the plate for the remainder of the season like they have recently.

Frazier Settling In With Contact

Since the beginning of May, Frazier has looked like the hitter he was back in Pittsburgh.

In his past 69 plate appearances, he is producing a .270/.333/.429 slash with a 115 wRC+. This also includes an 8.7% BB% to a 15.9% K%, and he has scored 10 runs, stolen a base, and hit two home runs during this stretch.

His latest home run came on Saturday against Mariners “ace” Luis Castillo (they have a lot of aces with Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, and Bryce Miller in the rotation).

I am unsure if Frazier’s power will develop much further, especially at 32. Still, a .400 to .420 slugging will be more than welcomed by a utility guy, primarily in the lineup against right-handed starting pitchers.

Frazier has always had a solid eye at the plate this season. Although his wRC+ for the season is only 86, his BB/K ratio is 0.63, his best mark in that category since 2022, when he was with the Mariners.

His decision value rolling chart demonstrates that he was making good decisions at the plate earlier in the year, hit a snag, and bounced back in the last couple of weeks.

Frazier’s Decision Value+ season average is above the MLB average, and as recently as June 1st, he was also above the 75th percentile in that metric. So it seems like he’s settling in at the plate a bit after seeing his Decision Value+ hover around the 25th percentile from the end of April to the middle of May.

The most significant change for Frazier has been his contact ability, which has improved over the last few weeks. Even though Frazier doesn’t sport great bat speed (his 66.4 MPH average bat speed ranks in the bottom of the league), he has made productive contact well.

Below is a look at his contact ability rolling chart via Pitcher. Notice how the contact+ has spiked lately, which correlates with his hitting solid performance.

Frazier’s Contact Ability+ recently ranked in the 90th percentile. He demonstrated those skills at the plate when he was back with the Pirates, which made him an All-Star in 2021.

Now, am I saying that Frazier is an All-Star? Not at all, especially since he is not an everyday player on this Royals team.

With Michael Massey out for an indeterminate amount of time, Frazier shows he can hold down Massey’s spot at second base on a hitting end (defensively, he’s been subpar, but Nick Loftin and Garrett Hampson have made up for it, as SIS wrote about today).

Furthermore, with this contact surge, Frazier demonstrates that he can fill in around the outfield and be a surprising source of production at the plate, even when Massey returns off the IL.

Renfroe Hitting Well Overall (Though the Plate Discipline Has Always Been There)

One of the hottest Royals hitters over the past few weeks has been Renfroe, as Bally Sports Kansas City pointed out today on X.

The Royals acquired Renfroe with the hope that he would bounce back after a down 2023 season with the Angels and Reds and be a force in the middle of the lineup (while giving a veteran presence on the bench). That didn’t happen in April, or most of May, but Renfroe has suddenly not just boosted the bottom of the Royals lineup recently but has put up numbers that have compared favorably to MVP candidate Bobby Witt, Jr.

I have always thought Renfroe’s slow start could be credited to his late start in Spring Training due to a back injury. Without a ton of Cactus League at-bats, he needed time to get in the swing of things at the plate, resulting in a rough April.

However, his decision value rolling chart shows that Renfroe has had strong plate discipline recently and throughout the 2024 season.

At no point this season has Renfroe been below the MLB average in terms of Decision Value+, which shows his strong eye at the dish. He has surpassed the 90th percentile in that category multiple times, and his personal season average ranks just above the 75th percentile.

Other metrics back up his decision value rolling chart this season. His BB/K ratio is 0.48, which would be a career-high if the season ended today. His 27.4% O-Swing% is 6.1% lower than a season ago, and his contact rate is 1.9% higher as well.

The power metrics aren’t as great as Royals fans would like, especially given Renfroe’s track record. That said, he hit his 6th home run in the bottom of the 10th inning yesterday against the Mariners, which shows that he may be heating up when it comes to launching bombs.

The barrel rate, at 6.6%, is only 0.5% higher than a year ago, and his hard-hit rate of 36.8% is actually two percent worse than his mark in 2024. However, his plate discipline and increased contact ability over the last few weeks have resulted in a tremendous spike in his hitter performance rolling chart.

His Hitter Perfromance+ from around the end of April to the middle of May was ghastly (below the 10th percentile isn’t good). However, it’s surged so much that it’s not only touched the 90th percentile recently, it’s surged past it.

This chart looks like Apple stock after the release of a new iPhone.

Renfroe has always been a streaky hitter, especially when Royals fans check out his career splits.

Nonetheless, Renfroe is at least looking like he can help solve the Royals’ outfield situation, which seemed unthinkable a month ago.

Is MJ Melendez’s Power Back?

Melendez got off to a hot start to the season and then cooled quickly and badly at the plate.

After posting a 70 wRC+ in March/April, Melendez saw his wRC+ plummet to 38 in May. That was amplified by an increase in K% to 29.9%, which decreased his BB/K ratio from 0.38 in March/April to 0.13 in May. Melendez’s decision value rolling chart also showed that he was pressing and not showing a solid eye at the plate in May, which he had done earlier in the season.

However, Melendez has recaptured that “March-April” plate discipline since the end of May. As a result, his Decision Value+ has surged back up past the MLB average and toward the 75th percentile.

While Melendez’s recent stronger eye at the plate has been nice, I am more concerned with his power, which probably will determine whether or not MJ is a long-term option in the outfield in Kansas City.

If he can get his power back and be a 20 to 25 HR hitter, he can be a corner outfield option for a while, even with his questionable ability to make consistent contact at the plate. If he can’t, then it’s likely that the Royals will find another option in left field for 2025 and beyond, whether it’s through the farm system (i.e., Gavin Cross or Tyler Gentry) or free agency.

Melendez showed earlier in the season that the power could play long-term, but then he pressed and hit that rough stretch, which suddenly disappeared. His ISO plummeted from .189 in March/April to .137 in May. For context, that kind of power production puts him around the Maikel Garcia and Kyle Isbel levels, which is not precisely what one wants to see from a hitter with cleanup or five-hitter potential.

However, let’s look at how his power rolling chart has fared recently, especially after the most recent series against the Mariners, where he hit two home runs.

After a stretch where his Power+ hovered around the 25th percentile (end of April and beginning of May), Melendez has seen his Power+ slowly creep back to his season average, around the 75th percentile.

The Statcast metrics, much like last season, show Melendez to be a better power hitter than the results demonstrate. His barrel rate is 10.8%. Despite this rough season overall, his hard-hit rate is still 40%. Lastly, his xSLG of .447 is 101 points higher than his slugging percentage this year.

Melendez still has many problems, and he’s making many stance adjustments that would be better served in a less-pressure-filled environment in Triple-A.

On the other hand, his power still seems to be MLB-caliber. Furthermore, it’s trending in the right direction, as Royals fans saw in this recent series against the Mariners.

Let’s see if he can translate this solid performance into the Yankees series at Kauffman and the Dodgers series in Los Angeles.

Photo Credit: Brian Bradshaw Sevald-USA TODAY Sports

4 thoughts on “Diving Into Three Royals Hitters Bouncing Back After Rough Stretches”

    1. Yeah it was tough. Internet wasn’t bad and heat wasn’t helping the equipment. You were good to click off when you did. We recorded something and hope to salvage it but not sure even that was great quality

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