Royals fans knew June would be a tough slate, especially in the first half of the month.
The Royals played the Padres, Guardians, Mariners, Yankees, and Dodgers in order, with San Diego, Seattle, and New York at the K, Cleveland, and Los Angeles on the road. All five teams are in playoff contention, with Cleveland, Seattle, New York, and the Dodgers leading their respective divisions.
The mindset among Royals fans was this:
If Kansas City can get through this stretch (and honestly, the month of June in general) with minimal damage, the Royals will be setting themselves up well for a postseason run in the second half of the season, especially with the hot stove likely heating up at the start of July (as it typically does).
The Royals are 6-8 this month as they hit the road for a six-game trip to Oakland and Texas, which have records of 26-48 and 33-38, respectively. The start of June isn’t precisely what Royals fans saw back in April and May when they went 17-11 in both months of play. The Royals are 41-32 on Monday and still have a 48.4% chance to make the postseason via Fangraphs.
The Twins have gained considerable momentum lately, as they have won seven of their last eight games. Minnesota benefitted from a pretty easy slate in June, as they played the Astros, Pirates, Rockies, and Athletics, all teams with losing records. Against those four teams, the Twins have been 8-4, which included a recent sweep of the Athletics at Target Field.
On the other hand, the Twins looked just as bad against the Yankees as the Royals. The Bronx Bombers swept Minnesota in Yankee Stadium and outscored the Twins 22-11. Despite being a new year, it seems like the Twins continue to struggle with the Yankees riddle (though Royals fans can also say that about their club).
The Royals need to hold off a hot Twins team right now, especially with a favorable slate coming up for Kansas City. In addition to the Athletics-Rangers road trip, the Royals return to the K for a three-game slate against a Marlins team that sits in last place in the NL East.
The Royals need to at least go 6-3 in this stretch, preferably 7-2, to build some much-needed momentum for a huge four-game series against the Guardians to close out the month of June. Hopefully, for that four-game set, Michael Massey and Michael Wacha will be back, as the Royals reported that they are starting rehab assignments this week.
Over the past three weeks, the Royals have held their own against some of the best teams in baseball. Furthermore, they have done this without guys like Wacha, Massey, and Hunter Renfroe, who was heating up at the plate until he suffered a toe injury against the Yankees that put him on the IL (though it sounds like it won’t be as bad as initially reported).
With an easier slate ahead of them, let’s hope the Royals don’t take the Athletics, Rangers, and Marlins for granted.
After all, every game matters in Major League Baseball, especially considering the long nature of the season and the grueling grind of these hot summer months.
Brady Singer Unleashes the Four-Seamer Against Dodgers
After posting 2.62 and 2.63 ERAs in April and May, respectively, Singer is struggling a bit in June, much to the chagrin of Royals fans.
In 15.1 IP this month, he has a 6.46 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. Thus, it’s unsurprising that Royals fans are beginning to turn on Singer already, thinking he will regress back to 2023 form (which wasn’t good by any measure).
Two things have been interesting about Singer in June, though. First, it’s not a control problem. He still has a 3.00 K/BB ratio, and his xFIP of 4.23 isn’t all that far off from his March/April one (3.51). Second, he’s utilizing his four-seamer much more, which contrasts the message from Royals fans that Singer is struggling because he’s only throwing two pitches.
Here’s his 2024 pitch usage chart by month via Savant. Notice the bump in four-seam usage and the decline in sinker usage from May to June.
Singer’s sinker has decreased by 10.9%, and his four-seamer has increased by nine percent. In his last start, against the Dodgers of all teams, he threw his four-seamer 18.9% of the time. Here is a look at the four-seamer results (and his repertoire results in general) from that start via Pitcher List.
The four-seamer had a 47.1% CSW, the best mark in that category of any of the four pitches he threw on Sunday. He also had a Strike Rate (Str%) of 58.8%, just behind his slider, which had a stupendous 79.5% mark.
Singer’s four-seamer was hit hard when Dodgers hitters made contact on it, as its 50% ICR (ideal contact rate) was the highest rate of his four pitches. Thus, it will be interesting to see if Singer will have the confidence to throw the four-seamer as much against the Rangers this week or if this will be the peak pitch usage this season.
In his SP Roundup, Nick Pollack of Pitcher List says the Dodgers can bring that out of pitchers, and he’s not sure it’s more than just a “Dodgers-specific” trend.
We’ll take a “PQS” all day against the Dodgers and guess what! The four-seamer hath returned! We’re talking more four-seamers than sinkers, landing in the zone for 44% CSW and 10/25 called strikes as I imagine he wanted to show something new to surprise the lineup. The Dodgers bring that out of pitchers.
Nick Pollack “SP ROUNDUP”; June 16, 2024
I am curious if Singer can make the four-seamer the effective third-pitch Royals fans have been crying for since he debuted in the Majors in 2020.
We will see how it fares against the Rangers this week, which will be a more manageable but challenging test for Singer and his newly utilized fastball offerings.
How Close is Gavin Cross to the Big Leagues?
The Royals are desperate for outfield help, at least on the hitting end.
Yes, Kyle Isbel has turned it around a bit (he came up with a clutch hit in the Royals’ comeback win against the Yankees to avoid the sweep). And MJ Melendez has had his moments, including a substantial grand slam against Los Angeles’ Blake Treinen that helped the Royals steal game 2 at Dodgers Stadium.
That said, according to Fangraphs, the Royals haven’t gotten much production overall from the outfield group and may not get much help soon, even when Renfroe returns.
Of this group of outfielders who have seen time in Kansas City, only Kyle Isbel and Garrett Hampson have an fWAR over zero. Royals fans read that right. Furthermore, Hampson, who is constantly derided on social media by Royals fans for every mistake he makes, is the best outfielder for the Royals on a fWAR basis.
It’s safe to say a move needs to happen soon to help boost this group, and Drew Waters doesn’t seem like the answer either (though he’s had a small MLB sample thus far).
One possible name in the Royals system being floated out is Gavin Cross, the Royals’ first-round selection in the 2022 MLB Draft out of Virginia Tech.
Cross had a rough year as he struggled through a variety of issues, from rough batted ball luck (.262 BABIP) to adjustment to the grind of a full MiLB season in high-A Quad Cities to even health issues (a tick disease kept him out at the end of the year).
Despite a 2023 that depressed his prospect stock, Cross has been on fire in Northwest Arkansas, showing the hitting skills that made him a Top-10 pick two seasons ago.
In 50 games and 189 plate appearances with the Naturals, Cross is hitting .296 with a 134 wRC+. He also has seven home runs and 14 stolen bases and has showcased stellar defense, with the potential to play all three outfield positions at the Major League level.
The current temptation for the Royals may be to rush him up to Triple-A and maybe call him up after the All-Star Break to see what he can do. The Royals need his profile in the outfield, and it gives them some time to continue to search the market and see if an outfielder may be available via the Trade Market.
That said, JJ Picollo and the Royals need to resist that temptation.
The Royals need to give Waters, Nick Pratto, and Tyler Gentry, all on the 40-man roster, chances to see what they can bring in the short and long term first.
Cross is not currently on the 40-man, and he should ideally replace one of those three players. While Waters and Pratto have had chances the past couple of years, Gentry hasn’t, and he deserves a crack in the big leagues first, despite his struggles this year in Omaha.
Lastly, the Royals learned the hard way with former prospects like Pratto, Singer, and Bubic of rushing guys to the Majors too soon. The Royals have veterans and other older prospects in the system they can utilize first. Besides, the Royals are nine games over .500 without Cross. They can live without him at the Major League level for now.
As Joel Penfield of “One Royals Way” said on Twitter, let him continue to develop for a bit longer in Double-A and finish in Triple-A this season. Then, next spring, he can have an opportunity to win an opening day job in spring training.
Cross has been a fun story and it’s nice to see a top Royals prospect bounce back after some early struggles in his Minor League career.
However, let Cross continue to cook and mash in the Minors.
His time with the Royals will come soon enough.
Photo Credit: Quinn Harris/Getty Images
Mr. O’B, I understand holding on to MJ Melendez; I actually think he’sgetting close to being productive with the bat and he has become aserviceable leftfielder. His athleticism allows him to make some sensa-tional plays, like the diving backhanded catch yesterday. His arm isabove average.What really bothers me is why they keep holding on to Nelson Vazquez.He’s below average defensively, not a good baserunner and his bathas all but disappeared. He at least used to run into one every nowand then but even his power has gone south.I am not a fan of Waters but he is decent defensively, can play multipleoutfield spots and can run. If they’re not going to make a trade or promote anybody, once Renfroegets back what is wrong with keeping Waters and dumping Velazquezsomewhere . . .anywhere but here.
I am not averse to optioning Velazquez and keeping Waters up for a little bit. That said, I think Velazquez is who he is and I don’t think that’s a bad thing to have. He can get streaky and single-handedly win the Royals games, especially when the pitching is on. I agree he lags in baserunning and defense behind Waters, but Waters needs to show he can hit. That’s what’s ailing our outfield at the end of the day: a lack of pop and consistency with the bats.
the absence of Wacha is telling. If the #3 starter has been bumped to #2, he might feel that he has to “up his game” to compete with the adversaries’ match up. A better tactic might have been to keep Singer @ #3 and plug in a long reliever from the AAA team with the understanding that his leash starts tightening at three innings. That way, he can let it all hang out in secpndaryvpitches, etc.
Going back to Singer… It is unusual for a pitcher to not throw a curve. He should add one to his Arsenal. Could make his slider more effective.
As to the outfield production… None of it should have surprised anyone. Melendez has shown himself to be streaky. Renfrew has been the same hitter for 6 seasons or so. Ysbel is a glove first player. Hampson looks good in a small size sample, but should be given more at bats. I think Waters should be brought up on the condition that he tweaks his approach at the plate to increase contact at the expense of power. If he can’t/won’t do that, release him. He has natural power. If he can increase contact, the should be more productive. Whoever signs the checks gets to lay out conditions. Same with Prato… Velasquez may be struggling adjusting back to the adjustment made by “league pitching”. This is a sign of player underdevelopment. Somebody needs to sit down with him and figure how to get back on track. It may be something as simple as shrinking his strike zone and not swing at marginal pitches. Being selective may force pitchers to throw strikes. Also, I would not hasten any of the minor leagues. Particularly the good ones. It may impact contract control, arbitration and free agency issues.
We are ahead of where anyone had us forecast. While the OF could hit more, we don’t really have any holes in the lineup.
I know Singer does employ a sweeper, but I believe that Statcast doesn’t recognize it as one. I think it’s a wrinkle on the slider that’s maybe not enough to be considered a sweeper, but it does give a different looks. I think that has helped his slider be a little more effective this year compared to last year.
And I agree about the offense. The good thing is there’s some depth there so you can mix and match guys who are hot and cold. Once Renfroe returns that gives them another guy. I agree about Waters but I just get the feeling the approach is what it is with him right now and he’s not going to change (or is going to struggle to).
And am in agreement with not promoting too quickly. I get as fans we want to see it, but you have to think about the long game, especially when it comes to preserving service time, etc. The good small market teams know how to master bringing up guys at the right time and preserving their affordability as long as possible.
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