When the Royals picked up Adam Frazier late in the free agency period, there was some mixed fanfare among Royals fans with the move.
Many Royals fans didn’t understand Frazier’s acquisition at first.
After all, Frazier had been primarily a second baseman with the Pirates, Padres, and Mariners from 2016 to 2022, and the Royals seemed set at second base with Michael Massey and possibly Nick Loftin. Last year in Baltimore, the Orioles did utilize Frazier a bit in the outfield to give him more value in the field.
Nonetheless, Frazier was still rated as a below-average defensive outfielder in Baltimore. He produced a -15 OAA, the fourth-worst mark of any regular fielder in 2023 via Savant.
Thus, with other better defensive options in the infield (Massey and Loftin) and outfield (Drew Waters and Dairon Blanco), many Royals fans wondered if Frazier fit in with this roster, especially as a left-handed hitter.
Somehow, though, the 32-year-old veteran has been a refreshing addition to a Royals club that is 17-10 after their 8-0 victory over the Tigers in Detroit on Friday afternoon.
Granted, Frazier’s statistics aren’t impressive by any stretch.
According to Savant, Frazier is slashing .207/.343/.241 with a .584 OPS in 70 PA. With Massey back in Kansas City after a short IL stint to begin the year, Frazier isn’t getting quite as many regular at-bats as he was before Massey’s arrival.
However, that may not necessarily be a bad thing.
Honestly, Frazier may be a better fit as a super-utility guy who can strongly impact this club in a semi-regular role in 2024.
Little Power, But Promising Everywhere Else
There’s no doubt that Frazier offers the Royals little in the power department. According to Fangraphs, his ISO is .036, which is not only down from his mark in Baltimore last year (.155) but is also much lower than his career number (.122) in that category.
Frazier’s average exit velocity (83.5 MPH) and barrel rate (2.1%) are also down from last year, confirming that he’s lacked power since moving to Kansas City.
On the other hand, although the power has been a bit disappointing (though not surprising), all his other metrics have been impressive, as seen in his Savant percentiles below.
Frazier is below the 10th percentile in average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. Furthermore, he ranks in the 23rd percentile in xSLG.
On the other hand, he ranks at or above the 60th percentile in every other category and at the 90th and 93rd percentiles in whiff and K rates. Frazier’s low-whiff approach and solid eye at the plate are big reasons the Royals have the third-lowest K rate in baseball.
As if that wasn’t enough, Frazier also has the Royals’ second-best BB/K ratio as of April 26th. His 1.13 BB/K ratio is only behind Vinnie Pasquantino’s 1.60 ratio.
Frazier brings plate discipline to this Royals roster that was sorely missing last year and even during the Mike Matheny era from 2020-2022. The 32-year-old Mississippi State product has been grinding out at-bats at the bottom of the order, which consequently has taken the pressure off of the Royals’ more free-swinging but productive hitters (i.e., Maikel Garcia, Bobby Witt, Jr., and Salvy).
It’s not just his plate discipline that is sticking out of Frazier’s offensive profile. He has been hitting the ball better lately, but the results are just not there yet.
As of Friday, his BABIP is only .234, which has heavily contributed to his measly .279 wOBA and 76 wRC+ with the Royals this season. However, his .334 xwOBA has been trending in the right direction as he has gotten more plate appearances.
Let’s see how his wOBA breakdown chart compares, courtesy of Savant.
As Royals fans can see, there is a big difference between Frazier’s xwOBA and his wOBA rolling chart. On an xwOBA end, he looks like a slightly above-average hitter. Unfortunately, the opposite is true of his wOBA rolling chart.
Can Frazier see that gap between his xwOBA and wOBA close soon and toward his xwOBA? It’s possible, especially if Frazier can spray the ball around like he’s been doing, but with more exit velocity and in the gaps.
Frazier has also been launching the ball more recently, based on his average launch angle rolling chart via Savant. That progression could help him inch his wOBA closer to his xwOBA as the season progresses.
Below is an example of Frazier improving his average launch angle and exit velocity in the most recent series with the Blue Jays when he hit a double off of Toronto starter Kevin Gausman on Tuesday night.
All these recent trends for Frazier should be encouraging for not just the Royals, who are looking for depth and offense off the bench. Additionally, Frazier’s batted ball progression should give Royals fans hope that they can continue their winning ways into May.
What About Frazier’s Defense?
Frazier continues to be subpar on the defensive end, which was to be expected after his defensively disastrous 2023 season with the Orioles.
According to Savant, Frazier ranks 9th in OAA among Royals fielders with 10 or more fielding attempts this year. He has a -1 OAA mark, but that is still better than Nelson Velazquez, Dairon Blanco, and Hunter Renfroe’s.
Many of Frazier’s defensive struggles this year have been at the keystone position. With Massey back, it is likely that Frazier will not see as much playing time there, especially since Massey is seen as the future of the Royals and is an upgrade with the glove.
However, it will be interesting to see if Frazier can settle in one of the corner outfield spots off the bench. In today’s game against the Tigers, Frazier made an incredible catch (and corresponding throw out of a non-tagging runner) that preserved an early lead for the Royals.
Frazier has played fewer than 20 innings in the outfield thus far, so it’s still hard to tell if Frazier is a long-term option as a corner utility outfielder.
However, those kinds of plays aren’t easy to make. That play shows Frazier’s athletic potential in the outfield and his underrated arm strength (evidenced by him doubling up Javy Baez).
If Frazier can parlay that stellar performance on Friday into more solid defensive innings in the outfield, the corner outfield spots may be where Frazier settles into in 2024 with the Royals, especially if Garrett Hampson can’t turn things around with his own bat.
Final Thoughts on Frazier
Frankly, when Massey initially returned, I was ready to give up on Frazier. While I was thankful that the Royals had a veteran in Frazier who could step up and hold the keystone position after Massey went on the IL, I didn’t see him as someone who would make sense on the active roster with Massey.
After all, both are left-handed hitters, but Massey is a better defensive player with more power upside. Last year, he hit 15 home runs in 461 plate appearances, and many Royals fans feel this year that he is a dark horse to hit 20+ HR as long as he stays healthy.
Thus, my instinct was that the Royals were better off keeping Loftin up as a right-handed option at second base and perhaps parting ways with Frazier (even if it meant DFA’ing him in the process).
However, Frazier has brought an intriguing mix to the Royals this year.
He brings better-than-expected defensive utility, a patient eye, and a line drive-hitting approach. He is a gamer who offers a much-needed veteran presence to a roster built around some key young stars, especially on the position player end.
Even though I was initially skeptical when the Royals signed him to a one-year deal this offseason, I am unsure if the Royals would be 17-10 if Frazier wasn’t on this roster.
Thus, he deserves a more extended opportunity in Kansas City and more chances to prove himself in various positions in the field.
For some reason, it feels like Frazier is just scratching the surface with the Royals so far in 2024.
If Frazier can break through, as I think he’s capable of, then the Royals could make a run at Cleveland and hold off the Twins and Tigers in the AL Central.
Good teams have productive position player depth.
Don’t be surprised if Frazier continues to gain confidence and become one of those productive position players off the bench sooner rather than later.
Photo Credit: Jose Juarez/Associated Press
The Royals Reporter 
Mr. O’B, a player like Frazier contributes on the margins,moving a runner here, stealing a base there, making agame-changing homer-robbing double play now andagain.At least he contributes SOMEthing. A lug like NelsonVelazquez can only contribute like he did today: NOT striking out, NOT hitting into a double play. Drawing awalk is contributorily his apex.Are they waiting to trade or demote him just to see ifa replacement can be determined to be no worse?And what is to be done with Melendez? After a nicestart he has regressed to a place worse than he wasin the first half of ’23.The offense is being seriously dragged down by lineupspots 5 through 9. Something has to happen like NOW if this team is goingto contend this summer. Relying on a solid rotation anda shutdown bullpen will not be enough, especially ifCleveland continues to lean out over its skis.PS – where has KCCP gone? Miss you two.
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Sorry for the late reply. I don’t think Frazier will be long for the team and I think the hope is to perhaps trade him when they deem that Loftin is fully ready, which may be sooner than we think. Hampson and Frazier seem like not just one-year options, but options who don’t make it past August at the very latest which is fine. I don’t think the Royals shooting a dart board at those guys was a bad idea, and they are certainly more proven than guys like Matt Duffy and Franmil Reyes who they tried this strategy with last year.
MJ looks out of whack and I think he’s beginning to press as well which is causing him to chase more than he did earlier than the year. The issue with MJ is that he has massive contact issues. He and Velazquez both are sub-70% which is concerning, even with their power potential. I think MJ is who he is, which is a Jarred Kelenic type who can hit HRs and provide some average defensive value (and good value on basepaths which Kelenic doesn’t do) but I’m not sure he’s long-term building block of this roster.
We had a great interview with Walter Pennington that we hope to release this week. It’s been tough with our schedules: end of school year is brutal for both of us but we hope to get things running again in the next couple of weeks.
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