Almost all the major projections are out, with ZiPS and PECOTA being the primary ones that have captured the most attention of baseball fans looking forward to pitchers and catchers reporting next week.
Regarding the Royals, it seems like most major projection systems foresee a more positive season for Kansas City in the win column compared to their 56 total a season ago. PECOTA is projecting a 70-92 record for the Royals in 2024, which would be a 14-win improvement from 2023. Fangraphs’ Depth Charts projections are a little more bullish, projecting a 76-86 season, which would be a 20-win improvement.
Despite those double-digit win improvements, the Royals are still expected to finish in fourth place in the AL Central division. The Minnesota Twins are projected to finish significantly ahead of Kansas City, and the Cleveland Guardians and the Detroit Tigers also are expected to be slightly better than the Royals in 2024.
When it comes to the projections on an individual level, it appears that Royals hitters are faring much sunnier outlooks than Royals pitchers for 2024.
This is an interesting trend considering most of the Royals’ major moves this offseason (except for the Bobby Witt, Jr. extension) have been on the pitching end of things. The Royals added significantly to the bullpen through both free agency (Will Smith and Chris Stratton) as well as trade (Nick Anderson). Furthermore, the Royals added two former San Diego Padres starting pitchers this offseason through free agency: Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha.
Despite all those transactions, PECOTA is projecting the Royals’ pitching staff to produce a WARP (Baseball Prospectus’ version of WAR) of 6.4. This is 5.4 runs less than what Royals hitters are expected to produce in 2024.
For comparison, the Tigers, who are projected for 5 more wins via PECOTA, are expected to produce around the same WARP as Kansas City on a hitting end (12). The difference is that the Tigers’ pitching projection is much better than the Royals’ (9.6 for Detroit).
For the Royals’ pitching staff to outperform their win-total projections, the pitching staff is going to have to outperform their modest outlook for this upcoming season.
And Wacha may be the key to whether or not that can happen in 2024.
Wacha’s Projections Modest, Despite Big Money This Offseason
While Lugo was the first free-agent starting pitcher the Royals acquired this offseason, Wacha was arguably the most high-profile one, especially considering his contract (one-year deal for $16 million with a $16 million player option for 2025) as well as his history with the Cardinals, Rays, Red Sox, and Padres.
Right now, it is likely that the Opening Day starter role will either go to Wacha or Cole Ragans, who was flat-out dominant with the Royals after coming over from Texas in the Aroldis Chapman trade. Wacha would make sense considering his experience and contract, but unfortunately, the projections aren’t as optimistic about Wacha as they are about Ragans.
Here’s a look at how Ragans and Wacha compare in their PECOTA, ZiPS, and Depth Charts projections for the upcoming year.
- Ragans: 175 IP, 3.93 ERA, 2.2 WARP (PECOTA); 165 IP, 3.99 ERA, 2.5 fWAR (Depth Charts); 111.1 IP, 4.04 ERA, 1.5 fWAR (ZiPS).
- Wacha: 145 IP, 4.27 ERA, 1.2 WARP (PECOTA); 151 IP, 4.59 ERA, 1.5 fWAR (Depth Charts); 117 IP, 4.46 ERA, 1.1 fWAR (ZiPS).
Not only is Ragans projected to pitch more innings than Wacha in those three projection systems, but the former Rangers 1st-round pick is also projected to greatly outshine Wacha in ERA and WAR metrics as well.
Granted, Wacha is an upgrade over other starting pitchers who pitched in the rotation a season ago (Brad Keller and Zack Greinke for example). That should help the Royals avoid the 100-pluss loss mark for a second straight season at the very least (as long as Wacha stays healthy).
On the other hand, if the Royals want to compete in the AL Central and surpass the Tigers, Guardians, and Twins, they will need Wacha to produce something more similar to what he did in 2023 (i.e. a 3.22 ERA and 2.6 fWAR in 134.1 IP) rather than his more pedestrian 2024 projections.
Wacha’s Changeup Should Continue to Carry Him in 2024
When it comes to Wacha’s pitch mix, he offers one of the most diverse arsenals of any Royals starting pitcher projected to pitch for Kansas City in 2024.
Wacha sports five pitches that he threw over 10% of the time last season, with his changeup (34.5% usage) and four-seam fastball (28.8% usage) being his two primary pitches with the Padres in 2023.
Here’s a look at how his pitch arsenal fared on a PLV end a season ago.
As Royals fans can see, the changeup was really good on a PLV end. The pitch ranked near the 100th percentile with a 5.71 mark and its 1.71 PLA further demonstrated how effective the offspeed offering was last season.
When diving deeper into the changeup’s pitch card and location data, it also proved to be impressive in multiple categories, which can be seen in the image comparison below.
Based on Wacha’s changeup pitch card, it ranked above the MLB median in four categories (release extension, induced vertical break, xZone%, and PLV). What’s most impressive too about the pitch was how successful it was, even though Wacha threw the pitch in areas where it’s not typical to locate an offspeed offering.
Against left-handed hitters, Wacha threw his changeup more in the middle-middle of the zone. Against right-handed hitters, he threw it more middle-up.
Considering the pitch only averaged 81.6 MPH, one would think that hitters would mash that pitch regularly. That said, the sequencing and quality of Wacha’s changeup made it tough for hitters to connect, despite the ideal velocity and location for hitters.
Here’s a look at Wacha’s changeup being thrown in the middle of the zones to the Yankees’ Anthony Rizzo and Kansas City’s own Edward Olivares a season ago. Despite the location, Wacha was able to generate pretty easy whiffs from both hitters.
When he’s not generating whiffs, Wacha has seen improvement in minimizing hard hits and more importantly generating regression in hitters’ xwOBA on the pitch over the past three years. After allowing an xwOBA of .280 on the changeup in 2021, he saw that xwOBA against his offspeed offering regress to .247 in 2022 and .234 in 2023.
Likely, Wacha will probably see a spike in xwOBA on the change in 2024. It’s only natural given the natural order of regression.
On the other hand, the fact that Wacha has a history of minimizing hits and exit velocity with the pitch (84.6 MPH last year) should help him continue to be successful on the mound as long as he’s healthy.
It sounds crazy for a changeup to be a primary pitch for a starting pitcher. However, with how Wacha utilizes its movement, compounded with his ability to throw strikes, the pitch was not only effective for him in San Diego last year but could continue to be a solid building block for his pitch arsenal in Kansas City this season.
What About Wacha’s Four-Seamer and Sinker?
The changeup is a borderline elite pitch for Wacha. Not only has it traditionally fared well in its PLV percentiles, but it also had the sixth-highest run value a season ago among changeups from pitchers, via Savant.
Side note: Interesting to see Ragans’ changeup ranked 7th in run value and Daniel Lynch’s ranked 11th.
His changeup has been effective and is a pitch that the Royals can rely on. On the flip side, his other offerings, especially of the fastball variety, are still in question, especially based on the PLV metrics.
Last year, Wacha’s four-seamer proved to be his best fastball pitch on a PLV end with a 4.80 mark. Here is a deeper dive into the pitch card and location data of the pitch as well.
The four-seamer was above the league average in two categories (release extension and induced vertical break) and close to the league median in arm side break.
It was also impressive to see how Wacha located the pitch against hitters as well.
Against both lefties and righties, Wacha tended to command his four-seam fastball low and away. The main difference in command of the four-seamer was against lefties, as he tended to go up and in with the four-seamer. Conversely, against righties he continued to pound the outside edges of the strike zone. It’s an intriguing strategy, but it seemed to work for Wacha in 2023, as he produced a +12 run value on the pitch and only allowed a wOBA of .282, which was second to only his changeup.
Nonetheless, the four-seamer did show some regression in terms of quality last year, especially in the area of PLV, and he was a beneficiary of some tremendous batted-ball luck on the pitch, according to Pitcher List metrics.
Notice the hit luck of -15, which was not only a 24-run swing from his 2022 in Boston, but still 14 runs better than the league average. That hit luck is further confirmed by a .221 BABIP, which is a career-low on the four-seamer. Granted, Wacha did generate strikes better than ever before with the pitch (career 28.3% CSW), but the 40.4% ICR (ideal contact rate) was the highest rate allowed on the four-seamer since 2021.
I’m not saying that Wacha needs to scrap or dramatically drop the usage of the four-seamer by any means. That said, it would be interesting to see if he will utilize his sinker and cutter more in 2024 to mitigate the expected batted-ball regression on the four-seamer.
Let’s take a look at the pitch card metrics of the sinker and cutter from a season ago.
The cutter appears to be more promising, especially since the pitch was above the league median in four categories compared to the sinker only being above in two. The cutter also is a pitch that generates strikes better than the sinker (based on xZONE% and CSW), and produces better arm-side break, which is key when sequencing with the changeup.
Here’s a look at how both pitches play in the same area of the strike zone, with the sinker punching out Paul Goldschmidt of the Cardinals and the cutter generating a swinging strike of the Dodgers’ Enrique Rodriguez.
Royals fans can see in the GIF compilation above how the pitch plays well off the changeup, especially against right-handed hitters.
Let’s now look at the location charts of both the cutter and sinker and see how they compare to not just the changeup but the four-seamer as well.
The cutter location-wise seems like it plays better off the four-seamer, especially since Wacha locates the cutter away and on the edges against right-handers and up and in against lefties.
As for the sinker, he locates it more up and inside against both lefties and righties. The gut feeling is that the sinker may play better off the changeup, especially with the big velocity difference between the two pitches (which is nearly 10 MPH).
Wacha probably can’t rely on his four-seamer and his changeup to carry him as much in 2024 as it did last year in San Diego.
On the other hand, the sinker-changeup and four-seamer-cutter pairings (to go along with that curve which gives him a breaking offering to mix things up against hitters) could help Wacha maintain success with the Royals for this upcoming season.
That in turn should help the Royals climb in the AL Central standings as a result.
Final Thoughts on Wacha’s Projection
I think pitch arsenal-wise, Wacha should be reliable in 2024 and will be well worth the deal he signed this offseason.
He’s playing in a spacious park (like Petco a year ago), and the Royals’ infield defense and hopefully improved outfield defense (not having to play Olivares out there anymore will help) should also play into his batted-ball profile, which is fly ball heavy.
Even though the fly ball-heavy profile of Wacha can be concerning, he did combo that with a 27.6% CSW rate a season ago. His 2023 CSW was the highest in that category since 2017. That shows that Wacha has the strike-inducing ability to earn a spot at the top of the Royals rotation for this season.
I think the sub-2 WAR projections are a bit modest and on the low end. It’s understandable of course considering Wacha’s injury history, as well as the fact that he’s only thrown over 140 innings in a season twice in his MLB career. At 32 years old, it’s more common to see a pitcher’s inning totals go down rather than up.
Furthermore, there’s tremendous pressure on Wacha to produce high-end results in the limited innings that he will pitch, which makes accumulating a high fWAR difficult. That’s also a big factor in his projections. They just don’t see Wacha producing the same number of innings last year (which is typical for any pitcher in any projection system) and they see a slight step back in performance as well.
His performance from last year is a high bar for Wacha to match in his first year in Kansas City. That said, that’s a big reason why the Royals only gave him a guaranteed one-year deal with a player option.
Frankly, there’s a bit of a “prove it” quality to Wacha’s contract with the Royals.
If he can build on and surpass what he did a season ago, he could opt out and perhaps earn himself a more lucrative long-term deal after the 2024 season. If he performs around the same or regresses heavily, he will likely opt-in and give himself and the Royals another shot to prove he is worthy of such a deal in 2025. Either way, there’s the motivation here for Wacha, especially since he will likely want to get one last deal by his age-34 season.
Thankfully, the metrics and the pitch data show that he has all the potential to reach that goal, which may benefit the Royals in the short term and Wacha in the long term, whether or not he stays in Kansas City beyond 2024 or 2025.
I think the projections are sleeping a bit on Wacha’s outlook for 2024. I get it. The history certainly contributes to him posting numbers behind not just Ragans, but even Lugo and Brady Singer in some cases.
However, it wouldn’t be surprising to me to see Wacha pushing that 3.0 fWAR or by slightly above by season’s end, even if he is only able to pitch 135-145 innings this year. The stuff and mix can (and honestly, should) still be as good in 2024 as they were last year in San Diego.
Photo Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
Mr. O’B, Sorry, but I quit paying attention to projections afterPECOTA made that ridiculous 2015 projection of theRoyals regressing to the mean, total win-wise. Is there any value in these “forecasts” for the averagefan other than something to dream on for the upcomingseason?
I think the biggest misunderstanding with projections, whether PECOTA, ZiPS, or whatever (ATC, Steamer, Depth Charts) is what we see is the “median” percentile. There are projections that will be higher. There are projections that will be lower. What we see is a “safe” range. I think at the very least, projections should give us a baseline for to judge a player and team for the upcoming season.
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