It’s been a heck of a week for me at work, which explains the lack of posts in the past few days, despite it being a crucial series against the rival Guardians. In fact, I wasn’t able to watch one game in this four-game series, which is pretty rare for me, even when school is in session.
I’m a little glad I wasn’t able to watch any Royals baseball games from start to finish this week. That’s because Kansas City played absolutely brutal baseball in Cleveland in a must-win series to keep their postseason hopes alive.
The Royals lost three of four against the Guardians, with their latest backbreaker coming on Thursday evening in a 3-2 loss. Kansas City led the entire way until the eighth, when John Schreiber gave up a two-run home run to Guardian’s nine-hole hitter C.J. Kayfus.
It’s easy to blame Schreiber for not coming through, especially against the bottom of the Guardians order (he also gave up a hit to Bo Naylor, who’s Barry Bonds against the Royals but absolutely garbage against the 28 other teams in the league, as I have learned in TGFBI). However, the Royals’ offense, once again, failed to build on an early 2-0 lead in the first inning, thanks to a Vinnie Pasquantino home run.
The Royals’ lineup coasted after the first, relying on a solid pitching effort from Stephen Kolek, instead of piling it on Cleveland starter Gavin Williams. As a result, the Guardians were able to stick around and keep things tight. When they got the opportunity, they took advantage, as they have against many teams this season.
The Guardians aren’t a good team.
They have a -38 run differential still, which equates to 69-77 xW-L. I’ll give credit to their defense and baserunning, which nets positive value in both areas and makes up for those offensive deficiencies and pitching inconsistencies. However, overall, I think the Guardians continue to be one of the luckiest teams in baseball, much to our chagrin as Royals fans.
At the same time, we are learning that the Royals aren’t a good team, either.
They’re an average team. A competitive team. A team that makes baseball worth following in September, even when the Chiefs are starting the season. A team that’s not total pushovers like they were from 2018 to 2023, when I was starting this blog.
However, that doesn’t mean they’re a good team. And it also means they’re not a playoff team, even though we were hoping for that as Royals fans at the start of September.
Hope For the Pitching
Some find it hard to understand why the Royals are 74-73 this season despite featuring an offense that ranks 24th in OBP and OPS, 27th in home runs, and 28th in runs scored. That said, it’s an easy answer: the Royals’ pitching has once again been outstanding.
The Royals’ team ERA is 3.67, which ranks 4th in all of baseball. Their 3.95 FIP ranks 7th, and their 4.02 xERA ranks 10th.
This pitching staff is not a high-strikeout unit, as they rank 26th in K/9 with a 7.96 mark. However, they have the 10th-lowest BB/9 (3.02) and rank 15th in K/BB. They have also done this without Cole Ragans for most of the year, Kris Bubic in the second half, and Seth Lugo and Michael Lorenzen at various times of the season due to nagging injuries.
The job Brian Sweeney and Zach Bove, as well as manager Matt Quatraro, have done with this pitching staff, despite those roster setbacks, should be applauded by Royals fans. That includes the most pessimistic ones who are quick to dump on the Royals every chance they get (if you follow me on Twitter, you know who I called out).
Tonight was another example of a pitcher stepping up and keeping the Royals in the game, even though he was unknown to Royals fans a couple of months ago.
Ryan Bergert has gotten most of the attention in the Freddy Fermin trade. However, Kolek has been the hotter arm, and he came up big in a crucial game four against the Guardians.
In 6.2 IP and 97 pitches, Kolek allowed only one run on three hits and one walk. He also struck out four batters and put up some solid metrics, as illustrated in his TJ Stats summary today.
The four-seamer didn’t look good by any means. It only sported an 89 TJ Stuff+ and 37 grade, and it also generated a 6.2% chase rate and 0.0 whiff rate. While he found the zone with the pitch a decent amount (52.9% zone rate), he also gave up a lot of hard contact on the pitch, as evidenced by a .735 xwOBACON on the four-seamer.
The rest of his arsenal was great on Thursday.
His changeup, slider, and sweeper had TJ Stuff+ marks of 104, 103, and 105, respectively. He had a zone rate of 55.7% and an xwOBACON of .338. He only had a 10% whiff rate and four total whiffs on the evening, but he was crafty enough to keep Guardians hitters at bay for nearly seven innings.
Kolek attempted to live on the armside edge of the zone on Thursday evening. For the most part, he was successful, as his pitch type and description charts illustrated below.
When pitches floated more to the glove side, he was less successful. However, the Guardians are the kind of team that you can afford to do that to, as they rank 29th in OPS and 27th in runs scored. Kolek looked like “good” Lugo against Cleveland, effectively mixing his pitches and finding the strike zone enough to be effective and earn a quality start.
In three starts and 19.2 IP, Kolek has only allowed four runs on 13 hits and two walks while striking out 11. He is showing that he needs to be seriously considered for a pitching role in Kansas City in 2026, whether it’s in the rotation or bullpen.
The Royals also got some excellent bullpen performances in their 4-3 win on Wednesday, which gave them a chance to tie things up tonight. Luinder Avila was the biggest standout, not only earning his first MLB win but also showing some nasty stuff in two innings of work, as illustrated in his TJ Stats summary.
The 24-year-old rookie showed on Wednesday that he has closer potential, especially with a curveball that not only sported a 103 TJ Stuff+, but a 44.4% chase and 42.9% whiff as well. The four-seamer still needs work, but his curve may be one of the best individual pitches in this Royals bullpen right now.
Whiffs like this one against Cleveland’s George Valera certainly prove that point.
The Royals have plenty of pitching depth to feel confident about in 2026.
Ragans should return at some point this year. Bubic next spring. They will also return Lugo and Wacha, who may be better if they’re able to get some rest to finish the 2025 season. Add that with Noah Cameron, Bergert, and Kolek.
There are the seeds of a playoff-caliber rotation in 2026. That bodes well with a bullpen that should be even stronger with the returns of Carlos Estevez and Lucas Erceg, as well as other relievers who have stepped up at various points of the season.
Decisions Need to Be Made With Offense
The reality is that the Royals have an above-average pitching staff and a below-average lineup. Thus, it makes sense why this team is pretty much average, with a 74-73 record with 15 games left in the season.
Against the Guardians, the Royals have looked very much like their June selves. It’s a team that is pressing and failing to come through in the most significant moments, sans outliers here and there. Tonight, the Royals went 0-for-6 with runners in scoring position and left eight runners on base.
Going into the series finale on Thursday, the Royals ranked 28th in wRC+ in RISP situations with an 86 mark, according to Fangraphs. Tonight illustrated why they have ranked so poorly in this category all season. The Royals’ lackluster hitting spray chart also confirms this notion.
There’s been some fun stories this year that have cooled off dramatically in September, much to the Royals’ detriment.
Mike Yastrzemski was a fun hitter in August, but he’s showing in September why the Giants were willing to let him go. Maikel Garcia has looked more like his 2024 self rather than his 2025 one. Bobby Witt Jr. looks like a hurt player, not a 100 percent one, as demonstrated by a 0-for-4 performance on Thursday. Lastly, Salvador Perez has looked his age with a brutal series, going 2-for-15 against Cleveland and seeing his OPS drop from .730 to .714 in a matter of days.
This Royals offense has been flawed all year, sans some stretches after the All-Star Break.
A lot of that is a talent issue.
Jonathan India has been a complete disappointment in every facet. They never got consistent production in the outfield, either. MJ Melendez and Hunter Renfroe were busts. Michael Massey has been a bust to a lesser extent. Jac Caglianone looked like a rookie. John Rave and Drew Waters had moments, but ultimately, they are probably Four-A players. Nick Loftin has a moment here and there, but he’s perhaps a Four-A player, too.
Yaz was good initially, but has cooled off, much like Adam Frazier. And Randal Grichuk? Well, he shouldn’t play in a Royals uniform again after this season.
JJ Picollo probably should’ve been more aggressive in a trade for an outfielder this past offseason. I don’t think he makes that same mistake twice. Expect him to make a run for an outfielder, either via free agency or trade, even if it hurts a bit.
While they certainly need to upgrade the player talent, they also need to upgrade the coaching talent.
Alec Zumwalt, Keoni DeRenne, and Joe Dillon had their shots. However, it’s evident that this team has not responded to their tutelage this year and that a change is needed.
I was willing, like many Royals fans, to give him some patience after they turned things around initially after the All-Star break. And yet, with 15 games to go, the Royals’ offense has proven to be what it is: inconsistent and underwhelming. The approach of this team is bad again, and they have tightened up in the bigger moments and the bigger games.
That falls on preparation and approach. Those are two things that fall on this hitting staff. That’s inexcusable, especially after multiple years in their roles.
The Royals can’t be below average offensively to make the postseason, even with arguably one of the most dynamic players in the game in Witt. They need to be better and not waste Witt’s talent or the depth of this pitching staff.
Kansas City, whose playoff odds are now 1.8%, according to Fangraphs, will likely miss the postseason because of their paltry offense. It isn’t the pitching. It isn’t the defense. It isn’t the baserunning (though this is worse than a year ago). It is and always has been the hitting.
The Royals need more players and coaching talent in the hitting department if they want to return to the postseason in 2026.
After game 162, those changes need to happen immediately, especially if they want to avoid next season the September hitting collapse that’s plagued them the last two years.
Photo Credit: Grace Hoppel/MLB Photos via Getty Images
The Royals, in 147 innings have averaged 3.802 runs per game and allowed 3.8775. That is unacceptable.
For sure. Even if the Royals had an average offense, this team may be in the hunt for a division title. It is a waste of this pitching talent for sure and they need to ensure that they don’t do this again in 2026.