The Royals are coming off a brutal loss on Monday to begin their seven-game road trip.
Against the rival Guardians, the Royals lost 10-2, which included the Royals getting no-hit for seven innings by Cleveland starter Slade Cecconi, shutout for eight, and utilizing a position player in the bottom of the eighth inning (Luke Maile). Safe to say, not only was it one of their worst losses of the season, but it was also one of the most damaging to their playoff hopes.
Going into Tuesday’s game, the Royals’ playoff hopes now sit at 6%, according to Fangraphs.
The Royals received some interesting roster news on Tuesday before their second game of the Cleveland series. Kansas City activated Jonathan India from the IL. However, in a corresponding move, they also placed Michael Wacha on the 7-Day IL Concussion Injured list.
On a positive note, Bobby Witt Jr. returned to the Royals lineup on Tuesday after missing the last three games due to back spasms. After a blowout win on Saturday, Kansas City has missed his presence in the lineup the past two games (they’ve been outscored 15-3).
Monday wasn’t the best start to the series, but it’s only one game, and there are three games left against the Guardians and three games left in Philadelphia against the Phillies. Like the Royals, Philadelphia is also reeling from injuries, as they recently added Trea Turner and Alec Bohm to the IL this week.
Thus, with the Royals now 73-71, should fans be throwing in the towel on any postseason hopes and focus solely on Chiefs football (which frankly wasn’t all that great either last Friday)? Or will the return of Witt and the potential of facing a hobbled Phillies team be the sparks they need for a big last homestand of the season?
Here are three questions regarding the Royals roster as we begin this final stretch of the 2025 regular season.
Is the Royals’ Starting Pitching Hitting A Wall?
After looking good in his first four starts as a Royal, Ryan Bergert finally had his first real dud on the mound in Royals blue on Monday.
In 3.1 innings of work and 77 pitches, Bergert allowed eight runs on 11 hits and three walks. His eight runs allowed were only one less than his previous four starts combined (nine runs allowed). His outing is a bit deflating, especially in the wake of Seth Lugo going on the IL and now with the news of Wacha going on the concussion IL.
Interestingly enough, while the start wasn’t good, I don’t think it was as bad as the final line indicated.
Here’s a look at his TJ Stats summary from Monday’s game in Cleveland.
Bergert didn’t generate a whole lot of chase (23.5%) or whiff (25%), and his xwOBACON wasn’t great (.454). However, his stuff still profiled well with a TJ Stuff+ of 105, and he had a 25% whiff rate, which is just below average, but not awful. He also didn’t give up any home runs, and the xBA of the Guardians was .288, which was much lower than their actual .410 average for the game.
Thus, it’s not surprising, based on the Deserve-to-Win-O-Meter, which is mainly based on quality of contact, that the Royals actually had better probabilities to win that game over multiple simulations than the Guardians.
Did the Guardians not deserve to win? No, they outplayed Kansas City. But the win on Monday explains why Cleveland is 73-70 with a -40 run differential (which translates into xW-L of 67-76).
Cleveland hitters put the ball in play a lot, and on Monday, they found a lot of open grass. This is despite not hitting the ball particularly hard (37.9% hard-hit rate, which was 2.1% lower than the Royals). They also utilized their defense effectively, taking away a lot of hard-hit balls from the Royals. According to Savant, the Guardians rank 7th in fielding runs value (FRV) with a +20 mark.
The Royals and Guardians win and lose in the same way, as the Royals rank just behind at 8th with a +17 FRV mark.
Thus, I don’t think Bergert pitched particularly poorly. The Guardians were locked in and made the most of the pitches Bergert threw in the zone, which can be seen in his pitch type and description charts via Savant.
Bergert did throw too many balls in the middle of the zone, and Royals fans can see that Cleveland made him pay with all the brown and red dots in the chart on the right. That said, I think the stuff and mix was fine, Cleveland just was locked in and didn’t let Bergert’s mistakes go to waste, even if they weren’t of the big fly variety.
Something similar could be said for Michael Lorenzen and his start on Sunday. His stuff wasn’t as good as Bergert’s, and he didn’t find the strike zone as much. However, he generated a ton of chase and whiffs in his 5.1 IP. The main issue for Lorenzen wasn’t the volume of hits, but rather, the number of “big” hits (i.e,. homers).
It wasn’t a brilliant or even quality start for Lorenzen. However, generating 17 whiffs and going 5.1 IP while only allowing four isn’t bad. The offense just didn’t come through for him in a 5-1 loss to the Twins on Sunday.
I think Lorenzen and Bergert are still more than able to give the Royals quality starts down the stretch, and I think the looming return of Cole Ragans should help the rotation out a bit, too. Ragans looked good in his rehab start on Sunday in Omaha, and he could be a candidate to return on Saturday in Philadelphia.
Ragans could be paired with Lorenzen and Bergert, which will put less pressure on not just Ragans, but also Lorenzen and Bergert, allowing them to only face the order twice instead of three times.
The Royals could also do the same with Noah Cameron, who goes tonight, and Daniel Lynch IV or Lugo when he returns from the IL.
The starting rotation may not look traditional, but I think the Royals can still piecemeal things together in a creative way to make a solid run at the end of the season.
Can Witt Turn Around the Hitting?
In my post for Just Baseball, I wrote that Witt was one of the most important players for this Royals team down the stretch, primarily because as he goes, the rest of the lineup goes.
The last two games proved that the Royals won’t make the postseason without Witt’s bat, but the hitting in September has been pretty bad in general.
While it’s a small sample, the Royals rank 27th in wRC+, 21st in ISO, and 30th in batting average in September, according to Fangraphs. If the offense feels like the one in June, it’s because statistically, it’s close. During that 8-18 stretch, they ranked 28th in wRC+, 22nd in ISO, and 23rd in batting average. So they’ve been considerably worse in average, though a .216 BABIP doesn’t help things (which is the lowest in baseball this month).
On a positive note, even with the slight dip due to his lingering back issues, Witt has been highly productive on a wOBA end this year. His .361 wOBA ranks in the 91st percentile, and his rolling trend has stayed way above league average, especially in the second half, as seen below.
Maybe Witt isn’t 100 percent. Maybe he won’t be able to steal bases or hit home runs as easily as he did pre-back spasms. However, any version of Witt helps the Royals’ lineup now, especially with every game a must-win at this point in the season.
Who Is The Next Royals Hitter to Get Hot?
When looking at Royals hitters in September, this is what it looks like, as organized by wRC+, via Fangraphs.
It’s been interesting to see who’s looked good so far in a short sample this month.
So far, Trade Deadline acquisitions Randal Grichuk and Mike Yastrzemski have looked brutal, as evidenced by their 36 and 2 wRC+ marks, respectively. Adam Frazier has cooled off with a 47 wRC+. Lastly, Maikel Garcia and Salvador Perez have been productive, but they are posting wRC+ marks of 63 and 52, respectively, this month.
On the flip side, Carter Jensen is posting a 111 wRC+ (albeit in 12 plate appearances). Vinnie Pasquantino has been a producer as well, with a 113 wRC+. That said, with Jensen’s lack of experience with this staff and catching at the Major League level, I don’t think he makes much of an impact, as Salvy and Maile will still get more innings than him behind the plate.
Thus, the Royals need Jac Caglianone (114 wRC+) and Nick Loftin (152 wRC+) to have big Septembers for this Royals team to make the postseason.
Cags isn’t hitting for much power, but the plate approach has vastly changed this month. He has a 25% BB rate to an 18.8% K rate, and his OBP is .438. He is also still making quality contact with a 44.4% hard-hit rate and .453 xSLG, which is 203 points higher than his actual slugging.
With better plate discipline, the production should come through once both the power and plate approach finally click. When looking at his Statcast percentiles, the main thing that needs to improve is his ability to pull the ball in the air (which ranks in the 8th percentile).
As for Loftin, he’s hitting .357 with a .571 slugging in 14 plate appearances. Unlike Cags, Loftin’s stats are more fluky. His wOBA of .395 is 108 points higher than his xwOBA, and his 33.3% hard-hit rate this month ranks 9th of qualified Royals hitters with five or more plate appearances this month.
That said, Loftin has consistently demonstrated a good plate approach, and if he can show a little bit of pop and get some batted-ball luck, he could have a month like Frazier and Yaz did in August.
With the Royals’ playoff odds so low, manager Matt Quatraro should roll the dice and see what they can get from Cags and Loftin and put them in the lineup as much as possible over the next few weeks.
Solid finishes to the season for Cags and Loftin could help them build momentum for productive campaigns in 2026.
Photo Credit: Reed Hoffmann/AP
[…] This road trip in Cleveland and Philadelphia was an opportunity for the Royals to build some much-needed ground and momentum in the Wild Card race. Unfortunately, they did the opposite, going 2-5 on this trip, and only winning one game in each series. […]