The Royals clinched a key series win over the Cleveland Guardians at Kauffman Stadium on Sunday, beating their division rival 4-1 on a hot KC Summer afternoon.
It was a similar-feeling but not a typical Royals win in the rubber game of the series.
In terms of similar, Noah Cameron and the Royals bullpen shut down a struggling Cleveland offense, limiting them to only one run in this one (which came on a solo blast from Gabriel Arias). Cameron went five innings and not only allowed zero runs and three hits, but he also struck out six and posted excellent TJ Stats metrics overall in his Sunday effort.
In terms of the unfamiliar, the Guardians out-hit the Royals 7-4, which usually is a recipe for a Royals loss. However, Kansas City drew seven walks and came up with clutch hits to help them win by three runs in front of nearly 17,000 at Kauffman Stadium.
Maikel Garcia continued his hot homestand as he homered for the second-straight day, bringing his home run total to 10 for the season, three more than he had in 626 plate appearances last season.
As a fan in the stands today, it was one of those homers where you stood up immediately as soon as Garcia hit it. After a slow start in July, it seems like Garcia has settled in at the plate, which is essential for the Royals if they want to make a run toward the postseason.
Speaking of that, Jeff Passan announced a massive move by the Royals in the evening regarding starting pitcher Seth Lugo.
Surprisingly, it wasn’t involving a trade, but rather, a contract extension.
About an hour after Passan’s announcement, Jon Heyman reported that the extension for Lugo would be a two-year deal worth a total of $46 million. It would also carry a vesting option for the 2028 season and various incentives.
Let’s break down this move by GM JJ Picollo, and what it could mean for the Royals not just by next week’s Trade Deadline, but this offseason as well as they build for 2026 and beyond.
Royals Lock Down Lugo On Team-Friendly Deal
For nearly a month, Royals fans and members of the baseball media have speculated about what Picollo and the Royals would do with Lugo by the July 31st Deadline.
Many felt that with Lugo set to be a free agent this offseason (he would likely decline his player option), it would be in the Royals’ best interest to trade Lugo so they could get some kind of return before he left Kansas City.
Instead, it seemed like the Royals went all-in on locking down Lugo for the next couple of seasons, something Picollo had hinted to in interviews with the media over the past week.
With Lugo locked down, the Royals do not have to worry about negotiations this offseason. Instead, they can focus on other areas (such as building their offense, through trade or free agency).
For nearly $23 million a season for the next two years, the Royals got a fair, if not team-friendly, deal with the 35-year-old lefty, who’s been Kansas City’s most durable starter over the past two seasons.
Over the past two seasons with the Royals, Lugo has made 52 starts and accumulated 319.2 innings pitched. His ERA over that period is 2.98, his FIP is 3.61, his BB/K ratio is 3.46, and he’s amassed a fWAR of 5.8. Of Royals pitchers with 50 or more innings pitched the past two years, Lugo only trails Cole Ragans and his 6.5 fWAR mark.
Even though Lugo has received less buzz this year compared to Kris Bubic (who made the All-Star game), the veteran righty has been just as effective in 2025 over 19 starts and 113 IP. His 2.95 ERA is lower than his 3.00 mark in 2024. Conversely, his 4.27 FIP is 1.02 points higher than his FIP a year ago, and he’s allowing more homers (12.5% HR/FB rate) and more barrels (10.2%) as well.
Still, he’s been a true savant on the mound for Kansas City, whose 10-pitch mix and ability to generate weak contact make up for his lack of premium stuff. As Royals fans can see in his TJ Stats profile below, his diverse repertoire as a pitcher makes him a tough scout for opposing teams and hitters.
Lugo only has a TJ Stuff+ of 98 overall, with only four of his offerings sporting TJ Stuff+ marks over 100. Furthermore, he has below-average chase and whiff rates, as well as a subpar xwOBACON. Conversely, he works efficiently, as evidenced by his 52.4% zone rate and 14.6% K-BB%, which are solid marks, especially for a pitcher like Lugo who throws so many pitches.
There’s a value in a pitcher with that profile, and teams would likely’ve offered something in the $25-30 million per year range over three years. Additionally, Lugo’s spending much of his MLB career as a reliever would have also helped him in free agency, as he has more mileage than the typical 35-year-old starting pitcher (he’s only been starting since 2023).
The fact that the Royals were able to get Lugo to agree to a $23 million AAV shows how much he liked being in Kansas City and with the Royals organization. Judging by the reaction of his Royals teammates, it seems like the feeling with Lugo was mutual, a good sign of the current vibes with this team.
Injuries to Starting Pitchers Probably Pushed Negotiation Talks
As mentioned before in Rany’s tweet, the Royals have been dealing with injuries to their starting rotation, with Bubic being the latest to land on the IL. As reported by MLB.com Royals writer Anne Rogers, the All-Star lefty joins former All-Star Ragans and Michael Lorenzen on the IL.
The injuries to Ragans and Lorenzen, as well as Kyle Wright and Alec Marsh, who have not pitched an inning for the Royals this season, have forced the Royals to turn to options like Rich Hill, who became the oldest pitcher in Royals history to start a game.
Not only is Hill slated to make another start for the Royals on Monday against the Atlanta Braves, but Kansas City also has former Astro and Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel pitching in Omaha at the moment.
Keuchel could be a starting option when they get to Bubic’s spot in the rotation, which isn’t exactly an encouraging sign for a team with playoff aspirations.
Thus, the Royals need to make some moves by Thursday’s deadline to improve their rotation for the remainder of the season. Right now, it’s unlikely Marsh or Wright will contribute anything to the Royals this season. Ragans may still pitch, but it is likely not until late August or early September.
As for Bubic, it’s indeterminate how long he will be out, especially since this diagnosis is so fresh.
With all these injuries and question marks, Picollo and Lugo probably didn’t want to wait any longer and let the cloud of their negotiations muck up their ability to make a move for a pitcher on the trade market. By making this extension early, Lugo secures his financial stability (and enjoys a stress-free offseason), and Picollo can focus on improving other areas of the roster by next Thursday’s deadline.
Inking this deal now was a win-win in terms of timing, and it also signals to other ballclubs that the Royals will be committed to making their team better for a run in the last two months of the season.
What’s Next For the Royals?
The main question now is this: How much better are the Royals willing to be by the Trade Deadline?
Right now, the Royals have been buyers, but they haven’t had to give up a ton of serious assets for those much-needed roster pieces.
Adam Frazier only cost the Royals Cam Devanney, a shortstop in Omaha, who was recently added to the 40-man roster and showcased an intriguing hitting profile, but was in his third stint in Triple-A. The Pirates immediately optioned him to Triple-A after acquiring him, which says something about how teams view Devanney around the league.
I discussed the Randal Grichuk acquisition yesterday, but to reiterate, he cost the Royals a reliever who made only three appearances with the Royals and has struggled to provide consistency in that limited sample. The Royals have other arms in the system who could easily replace Hoffmann’s spot, including Luinder Avila and Eric Cerantola, who both are on the 40-man roster.
Thus, Picollo hasn’t been “all-out buying” so far, but rather giving up extra pieces in the organization for more MLB-proven talent. Frazier and Grichuk may not have as much long-term control as Devanney and Hoffmann, but they immediately improve the team, especially on the offensive end.
Grichuk made his mark immediately for the Royals as he had a base hit in his first plate appearance and received the QuikTrip (Salvy) Splash after the game.
I believe that after this Lugo extension, the Royals will make at least two more moves at the very least: another starting pitcher and another reliever. I do not think they will make a splash for a major starting pitcher, but rather one they can acquire for a reasonable amount, whether that’s in cash or prospect capital.
One arm to pay attention to is Nestor Cortes, who is currently on a rehab assignment with the Brewers and is close to returning to the Majors after being on the IL since April 4th.
The Brewers appear to be set in the rotation and bullpen, so Cortes doesn’t currently have a spot when he returns from rehab. That puts Milwaukee in a roster dilemma.
The Royals could not just use Cortes to fill in for Bubic, but they could also trade some hitting, an area where the Brewers have been shaky this year. They rank 20th in OPS and 24th in home runs. Milwaukee could be willing to take a risk on Michael Massey, Drew Waters, MJ Melendez, or Nick Loftin in exchange for Cortes.
The Royals may acquire some hitting talent to improve their outfield, with Taylor Ward of the Angels and maybe Jarren Duran of the Red Sox being possible targets. Duran offers more long-term value, but his Statcast metrics have been questionable this year after his All-Star campaign a season ago.
As for Ward, he provides more visually appealing Statcast metrics. However, he hasn’t been as productive as in seasons past, as his .233 average and .307 OBP are both down from his 2024 marks (though the power is up).
While either addition would be nice, I am not holding my breath too much on either guy. Picollo would need to give up serious prospects like Carter Jensen or Blake Mitchell for those guys, and it seems like the Royals GM wants to hold onto their top prospects for now.
If the Royals upgrade their offense by the Trade Deadline, I would expect them to deal a bullpen arm, perhaps Angel Zerpa, for a hitter who needs an opportunity, similar to Nelson Velázquez in 2023 (they acquired him from the Cubs for Jose Cuas).
Bryan De La Cruz of the Yankees could be that kind of acquisition. The Yankees need arms right now, especially in the bullpen. De La Cruz is currently in Triple-A after a disappointing campaign with Atlanta (and Pittsburgh the previous year), but he has shown some power with the Marlins in the past.
*Disclaimer: I originally had Spencer Jones here, but I figured that the Yankees’ asking price would be too high for the Royals’ liking.
The Royals want to improve their offense by the Trade Deadline, and I believe there’s a high likelihood that they will. That said, I don’t expect them to trade away any serious prospects for that bat, which seems to confirm JJ’s statement that they are not really “sellers” or “buyers”.
“Sellers” look to add to their prospect capital. “Buyers” look to trade from their prospect capital.
Look for the Royals to find themselves in the middle by next Thursday.
Photo Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images
Lost in the shuffle is the roster expansion to 40. Royals could platoon the entire outfield and net enough improvement to make it pay.
If we were talking of getting a steady, if unimpressive hitter north of .260 batting average, .310+ OBP with double digit HR potential and low K rate, that might have been worthwhile. In March.
At this stage, we have what we have, or get someone else’s problem. Wether it is a payroll problem, unmet expectations, or an attitude issue, all seek to shed ballast.
Given our glut of young catching, can you see pairing catcher Fermin and 2b Massey for an almost MLB-ready 3b? You can then move Garcia’s bat to 2b where it plays more robustly.