I went to the game on Monday night, which was a scorcher at Kauffman Stadium with a heat index in the upper 90s for most of the game (I also had seats on the first-base upper decks, which don’t get shaded until later). While the 10-7 score hinted at a slugfest, in reality, it was more of a walkfest with flashes of power demonstrated throughout the contest (mostly coming from the Atlanta side).
Led by starter Rich Hill and his six walks, the Royals’ pitching staff tied a single-game record with 14 walks, the fifth time it’s happened in franchise history.
The Royals did not have a poor offensive night, which has been the typical formula for them in losses, especially at home. In addition to scoring seven runs, they also collected 12 hits, with Bobby Witt, Jr. and Randal Grichuk having two-hit games, and Maikel Garcia having a three-hit game. Grichuk also hit his first home run as a Royal in Monday’s loss.
Unfortunately, the Kansas City pitching staff cratered, something we haven’t seen too often this year from this squad, especially at the K.
Taylor Clarke relieved Hill first and didn’t allow a run in 1.1 IP (though he did walk one batter). However, after Clarke, all other Royals relievers allowed at least one run and one walk, including Sam Long, Steven Cruz, and Jonathan Bowlan.
Cruz had the worst outing of the bunch, as he not only allowed four runs on three hits, but also walked four batters as well.
The 26-year-old reliever has struggled after the All-Star Break, as he has allowed a 12.46 ERA and 3.00 WHIP in 4.1 innings pitched. He has only two strikeouts and six walks in the second half, the latter being over half as many walks as he had before the All-Star Break (11).
It’s not just Cruz that has struggled, but the Royals’ bullpen as a whole, unfortunately.
According to Fangraphs splits, Kansas City relievers are tied for 27th in fWAR (-0.5), ranked 26th in FIP (5.41), and 22nd in ERA (4.70) after the All-Star Break. In the first half, the Royals’ bullpen ranked 9th in ERA (3.68), 15th in FIP (3.98), and 17th in fWAR (2.0). Kansas City didn’t have an elite bullpen in the first half, but they had one that was productive and efficient, especially in high-leverage spots (which earned Carlos Estevez a place in the All-Star game).
Here’s how the Royals relievers have done this year in the second half, before Tuesday’s game against Atlanta.
The Kansas City rotation has seen a slide in the second half, but it hasn’t been as dramatic as the bullpen’s.
In the first half, according to Fangraphs, Royals starters ranked second in fWAR (9.7), fifth in FIP (3.70), and third in ERA (3.37). After the All-Star Break, they rank 16th in fWAR (0.7), 17th in FIP (4.34), and 10th in ERA (3.71). Here’s how starters have looked individually in the second half, via Fangraphs.
To make matters worse, the Royals are also dealing with injury issues in their rotation, which only hurts the group’s outlook.
Michael Lorenzen and Cole Ragans remain on the IL and haven’t pitched yet in the second half. Alec Marsh and Kyle Wright haven’t pitched at all at the Major League level. Lastly, the Royals got a blow on Monday, as Kris Bubic is expected to miss the remainder of the season due to a shoulder cuff strain.
Matt Quatraro mentioned to reporters yesterday that this pitching staff is now running on fumes, and the Bubic injury doesn’t help their situation, especially with them chasing a Wild Card spot at 52-55.
With the Royals struggling a bit on the pitching end, what are the Royals doing internally to address these issues? Furthermore, what can JJ Picollo and the Royals front office do by Thursday’s Trade Deadline to add some depth to this pitching staff?
Let’s break down those two questions regarding the Royals’ pitching, which isn’t off to the best start after the All-Star Break.
Royals DFA Hill, Call Up Hatch
While Hill was a nice story for pitching for his 14th MLB team at 45 years old, he didn’t showcase much in his two starts with the Royals this season.
After scrapping by the Cubs at Wrigley Field in his Royals debut, Atlanta took advantage of his lackluster stuff, tagging him for four runs on three hits in four innings, including two home runs. One was an absolute rocket by Ronald Acuna Jr that traveled 468 feet.
In two starts and nine innings of work, Hill allowed a 5.00 ERA, 7.76 FIP, 1.89 WHIP, and -9.3 K-BB%. His stuff didn’t look particularly stellar either with the Royals, as illustrated in his TJ Stats summary below.
Hill only produced a TJ Stuff+ of 95 overall, with his four-seamer, his primary pitch, sporting a 91 TJ Stuff+ and 40 grade. That’s not good, especially against MLB hitters who can make mince meat of those kinds of pitches when they’re thrown in the zone. Hill also lagged in chase (21.8%) and whiff (19.4%), which correlated with his questionable stuff metrics.
As a result, the Royals this morning designated Hill for assignment and called up Thomas Hatch from Omaha to replace him on the active roster.
In 18 starts and 91.2 IP with the Storm Chasers, Hatch has produced a 4.22 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and a 4.11 FIP. He doesn’t possess extraordinary stuff, but he generates a decent amount of chase and has limited productive contact for the most part in Omaha, as seen below.
Hatch’s overall TJ Stuff+ has been slightly below average at 98, but he sports three above-average offerings stuff-wise. That includes his cutter (27.2% usage, 102 TJ Stuff+), sweeper (8.1% usage, 103 TJ Stuff+), and his slider (5.9% usage, 104 TJ Stuff+). He doesn’t generate a ton of chase overall (24.2%), but he’s been successful with his cutter, which not only has a 29.9% whiff rate, but a 40.5% chase rate as well.
The 30-year-old former Cubs draft pick is coming off a pretty solid start in his last outing against Buffalo, which could explain why the Royals opted to pick up Hatch’s contract over some other options, like Dallas Keuchel and Justin Dunn, who also have MLB experience.
This is the second time that the Royals have called up Hatch this year, as they selected his contract on June 5th, only to designate him for assignment later in the day.
I think Hatch will get at least one more day this time around. However, he may simply be an emergency option for the Royals right now until they make a move for another pitcher, whether that happens tomorrow (with the Royals having an open slot for the starter’s spot) or by Thursday’s deadline (their off day).
Will the Royals Add Pitching By the Deadline?
It’s a pretty easy answer to a pretty straightforward question: Absolutely yes.
The big question, though, is whether the Royals will focus on adding another starter, a reliever or two, or some combination of both.
Acquiring a starting pitcher seems like the best route and easiest solution to the Royals’ pitching issues, especially in the rotation. However, starting pitching tends to be expensive at the trade deadline, and there aren’t a ton of sure-fire options available either.
Washington’s Michael Soroka could be an option that could fill in Bubic’s spot in the rotation.
In 16 starts and 79 IP, he has a 4.90 ERA, but a 4.11 FIP, 3.27 xERA, and 1.13 WHIP. The Royals organization would have some familiarity with Soroka, as Director of Amateur Scouting Brian Bridges likely scouted and drafted Soroka when Bridges was with the Braves.
Here’s a look at the Washington pitcher’s profile via TJ Stats.
Soroka has been slightly subpar in generating chases (26.6%) and whiffs (23.9%). However, he floods the strike zone (53.6%) and minimizes productive contact, as evidenced by his .338 xwOBACON. He boasts three above-average pitches, with his sinker, the least frequently thrown, being the only one rated below average (98).
Another starter who could make sense is Pittsburgh’s Bailey Falter, who has a 3.82 ERA in 108.1 IP this season. His FIP is a bit higher at 4.73, but he’s an efficient arm who throws strikes and limits hard contact, much like Soroka.
Falter has three more years of arbitration after this year, which makes him more expensive on the trade market than Soroka (who is a free agent after this season). However, the Pirates will need to make some roster decisions pitching-wise, as they will need to add pitching prospects Bubba Chandler and Hunter Barco this offseason to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft.
The Royals could also look to go after relievers and perhaps utilize a deeper bullpen to make up for the loss of Bubic, a strategy the Tigers used a year ago to go on a run.
If the Angels decide to “sell” at the Deadline, Kenley Jansen or Reid Detmers are arms that could be worth acquiring, though they will likely come at a significant cost.
From teams that are currently sellers, the White Sox have a lot of arms that could be available and could be better in a different environment. One arm I like is Jordan Leasure, who has a high ERA at 4.62, but has excellent strikeout stuff (10.62 K/9).
Leasure seems like he could benefit from a much better environment in Kansas City (especially under pitching coach Brian Sweeney) and could thrive in a middle-innings role. He also brings big-time stuff with a 110 overall TJ Stuff+, which is what they are missing in the bullpen right now. The Royals rank 26th in reliever K/9.
It is to be determined if Jansen, Detmers, or Leasure will be Royals by the end of the week. Many teams are likely inquiring about the three pitchers to improve over the next two months. Regardless, expect Picollo and the Royals to pursue relievers who share similar profiles by Thursday’s Trade Deadline to help solidify this bullpen down the stretch.
Photo Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images
[…] Being at the ballpark, the Royals’ pitching staff was a sight to behold on Wednesday afternoon, especially against an Atlanta lineup that scored 16 runs in the first two games of the series. The rough performance of the pitching staff, especially on Monday (another game I attended in person), prompted me to write about whether the Royals’ pitchers were due for serious regression in the…. […]