I wasn’t planning to post a recap of any sort after yesterday’s loss (crashed early due to time difference adjustment and jet lag). However, this morning, I woke up a little more even-keeled and was about to share a thread on some thoughts about the game on Bluesky. The thread got long, and I decided a post may have been more appropriate (this is a blog, after all).
Thus, here are some quick positive and negative takeaways from yesterday’s 8-7 loss in Miami.
Positive: Rave Gave the Royals Much-Needed Pop At the Bottom of the Order
After a RBI double by Otto Lopez and an RBI single by Kyle Stowers in the third inning, I nearly decided to turn off the game. It just seemed like the classic “first game of the series sluggishness” from the Royals in this one, especially from Seth Lugo, who not only gave up five runs but also seven hits in the first three innings.
However, the Royals got back into the game thanks to some unlikely sources.
Outfielder John Rave, who’s struggled since being called up from Omaha, came up huge in the fourth inning with a three-run home run off Sandy Alcantara to bring the Royals within one. Not only was it his first career home run, but it also came off an NL Cy Young winner.
That wasn’t it for Rave, either. In the top of the ninth, with one out and on a 3-2 count, Rave drove a ball the opposite way off Marlins closer Calvin Faucher over the left-center wall to tie up the game.
It’s that kind of clutch hitting, especially from the bottom of the lineup, that’s been missing for the most part this season. We saw that clutch hitting last season, which helped get them to the ALDS. We saw it in 2015 and 2014.
If the Royals want to have any hope of making a postseason push, they will need a hitter (or hitters) in the middle of the bottom of the lineup to get hot for an extended period. It doesn’t have to be for the remainder of the season, but a couple of weeks would help.
And it doesn’t have to be just one guy, either. It could be Rave for a series or two. It could be Freddy Fermin for another series or two. They don’t have to all get hot (they’re at the bottom of the order for a reason). However, having some punch to extend innings could help the Royals live up to their potential on the hitting end.
Last night against the Marlins demonstrated that, thanks to Rave.
Negative: Lugo Shows Rust Early
There’s no doubt that Lugo is key to the Royals’ second half for a variety of reasons.
The 35-year-old righty has been one of the better Royals starters after Cole Ragans went down, as evidenced by his 2.94 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 18 starts and 107 IP this season. He may also be Kansas City’s best trade chip, though it seems that JJ Picollo wants his team to be “aggressive” at the Trade Deadline.
That said, Lugo struggled with his command in his first three innings, especially in the first and third.
Here’s a look at Lugo’s pitch type and description chart from the first inning of last night’s game.
Lugo was more fastball-heavy in the first, but he threw way too many up and in the middle of the zone. That was evident in this home run allowed to Jesus Sanchez, which got the scoring going for the Marlins in the first.
He also made a mistake with the changeup against Stowers, who had an absolute beast of a game on Friday night. Notice the location of that knee-high arm-side changeup on the pitch charts. Stowers launched it for his first home run of the game.
Lugo looked to settle down in the second, but he followed that up with a rough third. Here’s a look at his pitch type and description charts from that inning.
Lugo went more breaking-ball heavy in the third, with his curve and slurve being his two primary pitches. Unfortunately, he hung the pitches up in the zone, and Marlins hitters took advantage.
He only threw one slider, but he hung it up high in the zone, and Otto Lopez made him pay by nearly hitting it out of the park.
After a bloop single that was more due to miscommunication by Bobby Witt Jr., Rave, and Kyle Isbel, Lugo settled in. He gave up one more hit in the fourth, but after that, he mowed the Marlins down in order, with eight consecutive batters retired. That included strikeouts of Lopez, Stowers, and Myers.
An interesting note about Lugo’s performance was his high zone rate in this outing.
His 56.6% mark was one of the highest in a while, as Lugo has been more keen on living on the edges after coming off the IL, even if it may produce more walks (I talked about this in a recent post). That likely led to more hard contact and a higher xwOBACON in this outing, which can be seen via his TJ Stats summary.
The .498 xwOBACON is not suitable for Lugo’s standards, especially since he’s not the kind of pitcher who will generate a ton of chase (27.8% on Friday) or whiff (23.8%). His content was generally suitable for his profile. He produced a 99 TJ Stuff+ and his curveball looked solid with a 104 TJ Stuff+, 50% chase, 58.3% whiff, and .137 xwOBACON.
This start indicates that Lugo was more rusty coming off the break, which is a positive sign for his outlook for the remainder of the year. Unfortunately, those three innings of rust hurt the Royals early on.
Positive: Adam Frazier Makes An Impact
Many Royals fans were a bit outraged by the Frazier acquisition, especially since his Statcast profile doesn’t solve the Royals’ power-hitting woes.
However, with runners on second and third in the top of the 10th inning and Vinnie Pasquantino and Maikel Garcia failing to come through, Frazier demonstrated with one swing why Picollo was eager to bring him back to Kansas City.
Frazier came through with runners in scoring position, a source of struggle for Royals hitters this year. He’s been pretty dependable in that area this year, as demonstrated via his baserunner splits with the Pirates (and now Royals).
With runners in scoring position, he’s slashing .304/.386/.435 with an .823 OPS and 21 RBI in 58 plate appearances. He also has five walks and eight strikeouts in those situations.
Frazier shows a strong ability to not only hit the ball in clutch situations but also make productive contact and have positive at-bats. He’s not going to turn around this offense dramatically, but Frazier showed on Friday what’s been missing from this lineup compared to a year ago.
Negative: Poor At-Bats From Key Hitters
It wasn’t a banner day from the rest of the Royals’ lineup, as demonstrated by their Win Probability chart via Fangraphs.
Frazier and Rave stick out with .455 and .456 WPA marks. Salvador Perez also had a banner day with two hits, a walk, and a .142 WPA. Lastly, Witt preserved his road hitting streak in the 10th with an infield single and a stolen base and run scored, which helped him produce a .142 WPA.
Every other Royals hitter produced negative marks, and there were some glaring ones.
Garcia had two hits, but he had a poor-looking strikeout in the 10th with runners on second and third, where he looked at two called strikes and chased a breaking ball out of the zone on the third. Pasquantino had a walk, but he went 0-for-4 and popped up with runners on second and third and no one out. His RISP struggles have been incredibly notable this season (.211/.261/.351 slash and .617 OPS in RISP).
Even though Jac Caglianone and his WPA don’t look too bad (-.009), he had an awful at-bat where he swung at the first pitch in the top of the 8th. Usually, that’s not the worst thing, but Tyler Tolbert came into pinch run for Salvy, and he had a significant jump (plus, the Marlins have been the worst team in the majors when it comes to catching runners; they have nearly 100 more stolen bases allowed than the Royals). That was a boneheaded at-bat by a young rookie who really should know better.
Lastly, Jonathan India went 0-for-5 with three strikeouts and an inning-ending double play.
Safe to say, it’s kind of a miracle that the Royals even had a chance to win this one, based on all those factors. The “Deserve-to-Win-O-Meter” also seemed to agree, as the Marlins had a 74% “Deserve-to-Win” percentage.
Playoff teams find a way to win games they should probably lose, especially against teams that are “supposedly” less talented.
Friday night was not one of those games, unfortunately, even though it seemed like it would be for 20 minutes.
Positive: The Bullpen (Beyond Estevez) Locked Things Down
Matt Quatraro pulled Lugo after the sixth, even though he only threw 83 pitches. However, it looked like the best move, especially with a fresh bullpen coming off the All-Star Break.
Angel Zerpa came in the seventh and walked one batter but also struck out one. His slider was popping on Friday, as seen in his TJ Stats summary.
Zerpa’s slider sported a 108 TJ Stuff+, 57.1% zone rate, and 66.7% whiff rate. Hitters didn’t put a slider in play on Friday night.
Overall, the Venezuelan lefty produced a 101 TJ Stuff+, 64.3% zone rate, 40% chase, and 37.5% whiff. He did give up some loud contact (.806 xwOBACON), but that was primarily due to Marlins hitters making hard contact with his four-seamer, which only had a 93 TJ Stuff+ on Friday.
Jonathan Bowlan, who came in the eighth, also had a stellar start to the second half, based on his own TJ Stats summary.
Bowlan had a 110 TJ Stuff+ overall with a 50% zone rate, 40% chase, 60% whiff, and .040 xwOBACON. His four-seamer was his best pitch stuff-wise with a 117 TJ Stuff+ and chase and whiff rates of 100%. Friday night showed why the Royals continue to have trust in Bowlan as he goes through growing pains in his first full season as a reliever in the big leagues.
Lastly, Lucas Erceg came in a prominent spot in the bottom of the ninth with the game tied. He didn’t disappoint, and as he pushed the game into extra innings with a solid performance.
Erceg added some drama with a base hit in addition to a walk and a stolen base allowed. However, he struck out two batters, thus ending the threat. His TJ Stuff was solid, as demonstrated by a 102 overall mark. He also generated a 52.2% zone rate and 45.5% chase, which are promising marks. His 25% whiff and .538 xwOBACON were a bit more mediocre, but Ecreg showed on Friday why Quatraro trusts him in those high-leverage spots.
Negative: Estevez’s Struggles Continue
I mentioned Carlos Estevez in my post yesterday, before Friday’s game. He’s been struggling since June 1st, and those woes only continued on Friday.
In the 10th with a two-run lead, Estevez gave up three runs, including the game-winning home run to Stowers, whom Estevez struck out in the All-Star game.
Stowers certainly got his payback on Friday night in Miami.
Estevez wasn’t rusty on a stuff end, as he produced a TJ Stuff+ of 107 overall, as illustrated in his TJ Stats summary chart from yesterday’s game below.
Unfortunately, he left the ball too much in the zone, and Marlins hitters weren’t fooled. He only generated a whiff rate of 25% and his xwOBACON allowed was .820, amplified by a 1.489 xwOBACON on his four-seamer. That’s not a recipe for success, regardless of the ballpark Estevez is pitching in.
Here is a results pitch type chart that shows the mistakes Estevez made in the zone on Friday.
Lopez’s lineout was hit 96.7 MPH. Thus, Estevez was lucky to get one out at all in that 10th inning.
Blown saves are part of the game. However, Estevez’s advanced metrics have demonstrated this year that he hasn’t been as good as his ERA indicates, making him one of the more “flawed” relievers potentially available for a trade at the Deadline.
Estevez seems like a good dude and is a fan favorite in Kansas City for a reason. He’s been solid for the most part this year, and he’s friendly with the fanbase, which hasn’t always been the case with relievers (don’t forget about Kyle Farnsworth or Aroldis Chapman).
That said, it seems that the early heavy workload is taking a toll on Estevez, which isn’t a promising sign for what is to come in the second half.
Photo Credit: AL DIAZ/Miami Herald
Lugo is saving himself for a contender. Pitches high in the zone are an indicator that the pitcher is not following through on his delivery, and thus, pitches stay high. After today’s loss. I suspect we will get swept tomorrow.
The Royals should trade Lugo NOW, before he skates himself out of a trade to a contender. Cubbies look good.
He definitely looked rusty. I don’t think he would mail it in or save himself. He’s too much of a professional to do that. But I think he may realize the writing is on the wall after this one.
It will be interesting to see if there’s a locker room switch in this upcoming series with the Cubs. I think Lugo would make a lot of sense for Cubs and I like some of the pieces in the farm system.