The Royals start their second half in Miami this weekend with a three-game series against the Marlins. The Marlins are currently 44-51, but they’ve been one of the hottest teams in baseball recently, despite their 0.2% playoff odds, according to Fangraphs. They are led primarily on offense by Kyle Stowers, a former Orioles prospect (acquired with Connor Norby in the Taylor Rogers trade last year) who made the All-Star team this season.
The Marlins also sport intriguing arms in Eury Perez and Edward Cabrera, as well as former Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara. Thankfully, the Royals will only face Alcantara, who is having a rough season, as evidenced by his 7.22 ERA.
Even though the Royals are 47-50 and their playoff odds are currently at 11.9% via Fangraphs, there still is some hope among the Kansas City faithful that they could go on a run in the second half and sneak into the postseason.
Jared Koller of Inside the Crown made his case in a recent video tweet, comparing this year’s squad to the 2014 Royals, who started the season 48-50 before going on a run to the World Series.
Much has been made about the Royals’ hitting or lack thereof in the first half. As Koller mentioned in his post, they rank 26th in OPS, but also 27th in OBP and 29th in runs scored and home runs. The Royals will likely be aggressive in the next couple of weeks leading up to the Trade Deadline, hoping to add another bat who could boost the middle of their lineup.
However, one area that will be key for the Royals after the All-Star Break will be the bullpen.
A significant key to the Royals’ success in 2014 was the prowess of their relievers, highlighted by Greg Holland, Wade Davis, and Kelvin Herrera, as well as other relievers who had big moments down the stretch (such as rookie Brandon Finnegan).
Last year, although the bullpen started slowly due to struggles from Will Smith and Chris Stratton, as well as inconsistency from James McArthur, they got into a groove after the Trade Deadline. They became one of the better units in baseball. That was especially true once Daniel Lynch IV and Kris Bubic moved from the rotation to the bullpen, and after acquiring Lucas Erceg from the A’s.
The Royals were able to win a postseason series in Baltimore and give the Yankees some stiff competition in the ALDS due to the effectiveness of their bullpen, especially in high-leverage spots.
This season, JJ Picollo added to the bullpen by signing closer Carlos Estevez to give the group much-needed depth. They also acquired former Royals reliever Taylor Clarke on a Minor League deal in Spring Training, and he’s been able to produce some productive innings in his return to Kansas City.
As a result, this Royals bullpen ranks much better than it did at this point a season ago. That is evidenced by their 9th ranking in reliever ERA, 8th ranking in WHIP, and 17th ranking in bullpen fWAR, according to Fangraphs.
However, the bullpen has begun to fade a bit, which made the All-Star Break much needed for this group.
At the beginning of the season, the group posted gaudy ERA numbers each month. In March/April, they ranked 8th with a 3.28 mark. In May, they ranked 9th with a 3.50 ERA.
However, in June, the bullpen ERA regressed to 3.89 (16th), and in July, it inflated to 4.61 (20th). Although there is still some time left this month, the Royals’ bullpen has looked significantly less effective, which could impact their postseason chances, mainly since pitching has carried this team to 47 wins thus far.
Thus, is the Royals’ bullpen, and pitching overall, due for a sharp decline after the All-Star Break? Or will the group recover, especially after the All-Star Break allowed some to rest and recharge?
Let’s look at how the group has been this year and what Royals fans can expect from this group in the second half.
Comparing the Royals’ First Two Months to Their Second Two Months
From Opening Day until May 31st, the Royals ranked 7th in reliever ERA with a 3.39 mark, according to Fangraphs. They ranked 14th in FIP (3.84) and 15th in fWAR (1.5), which is less impressive. However, that is much better than what they did in 2024. According to Fangraphs, they ranked 24th in bullpen ERA and FIP, and 22nd in reliever fWAR.
Here’s how the Royals’ relievers individually fared from Opening Day until the end of May via Fangraphs.
Estevez and Erceg carried the Royals’ bullpen with a 1.3 fWAR combined in those first two months of play. Furthermore, they also posted ERA marks of 1.78 and 1.96, respectively. The Royals also got positive performances from Hunter Harvey before he went on the IL (0.2 fWAR; 0.00 ERA), as well as Clarke (0.2 fWAR; 0.75 ERA), Steven Cruz (0.2 fWAR; 1.93 ERA), Evan Sisk (0.1 fWAR; 1.69 ERA), and Lynch (0.1 fWAR; 0.1 fWAR).
There was some batted-ball “luck” in the Royals’ bullpen’s strong start.
Their BABIP was the 12th-lowest in baseball, and their LOB% was the third-highest as well, according to Fangraphs. In terms of BABIP, Harvey, Clarke, Cruz, Jonathan Bowlan, Erceg, Lynch, and Estevez all sported marks under .250. That is quite lucky and hard to sustain over a full year (Harvey, Clarke, and Cruz had marks under .200).
From June 1st to the All-Star Break, it’s been a much different story for the bullpen.
According to Fangraphs, they rank 19th in bullpen ERA (4.11), 17th in FIP (4.18), and are tied for 19th in fWAR (0.5). Below is how they fared individually over the same sample size in the same metrics as those in the table above.
Angel Zerpa has seen a tremendous rebound as his 0.5 fWAR leads all Royals relievers from June 1st until the All-Star Break. He also has a 2.04 ERA and 11.7 K/9, which also lead Kansas City relievers. Erceg has remained solid with a 2.45 ERA and 0.3 fWAR, despite missing some time due to injury. Lastly, Cruz and Schreiber have provided positive performances with 0.2 fWAR marks over this summer time frame (though Cruz has a slightly higher ERA at 3.44).
Unfortunately, the biggest tumblers have been Estevez, Lynch, and Clarke, who have combined for a -0.7 fWAR.
Clarke has been brutal with an 8.56 ERA and 6.30 FIP. Those high numbers have been influenced mainly by his 2.6 HR/9 allowed over this period. That said, he’s an expendable piece and could likely be designated for assignment when Harvey returns from the IL, which could happen sooner rather than later with Harvey reporting for a rehab stint in the Arizona Complex League.
Lynch’s ERA is serviceable at 3.68, but his 6.15 FIP is a significant reason why his fWAR is negative.
The lefty has struggled with walks (4.9 BB/9) and homers allowed (1.8 HR/9) over the last two months. Thus, it’s not surprising that he’s ceded high-leverage opportunities to Zerpa. Sam Long has a worse ERA (7.04) than Lynch, but his FIP (5.56) is slightly better, which is not a good sign for Lynch’s outlook for the remainder of the season, especially combined with his questionable stuff and whiff metrics, via TJ Stats.
The most enormous red flag of this group is Estevez, who made the All-Star team primarily due to his low overall ERA (2.36) and 25 saves in 42 IP.
Even though he posted a 3.24 ERA in 16.2 IP since June 1st, his FIP was 5.06, which is 2.37 points higher than what he did from Opening Day to May 31st. He has been more susceptible to the long ball since June 1st, as evidenced by his 1.6 HR/9 allowed. His K/9 is also down to 6.5, a 1.7-point decrease from earlier in the year.
He did strike out the side in the All-Star game, which was nice to see, especially since it came against the best hitters in the game.
Hopefully, the All-Star game rejuvenated Estevez, and he can bounce back and find his form from March to May, when he was one of the best closers in the game. He hasn’t been bad by any means from June 1st to present, but the advanced metrics don’t paint a rosy picture over that time frame.
If he continues to regress, not only could he lose his grasp on the closer’s role, but the Royals’ playoff chances will likely be torpedoed as well.
What Do the Royals Do With This Group, Based On This Data?
The Royals are in a tough spot, as they statistically have a long shot at making the postseason. As a result, some Royals relievers have been the subject of trade talks, with Estevez being rumored as a Yankees target, according to MLB’s Francys Romero.
A Yankees move for Estevez could make sense, especially with Devin Williams not being as effective as he was in years past, and with Luke Weaver (a former Royal) dealing with various injuries throughout the season (though he’s currently pitching now).
The Royals could “sell” some of their bullpen pieces now and maximize their trade return. Furthermore, it may not even hurt their bullpen at all down the stretch. If the Royals trade Estevez, they could easily slot Erceg into the closer’s spot, and Harvey, once he returns, could move into a setup role (though he would be hard to depend on as he hasn’t stayed healthy in Kansas City).
There are, however, three primary issues with trading Estevez now.
First, he’s a fan favorite and seems well-liked in the clubhouse. Trading him, even for a nice package, would gut the clubhouse morale for the remainder of the season, which could hurt the club in terms of attracting free agents for 2026.
Second, Estevez is still showcasing excellent TJ Stuff metrics, as indicated by his TJ Stats summary metrics, despite the questionable strikeout results. It’s possible that he found the correct adjustment at the All-Star game and could see an increase in his whiffs and strikeouts after the All-Star Break.
If the Royals trade him, they may be losing out on him having a big second half and being the closer that they would “need” to not only clinch a postseason berth, but be competitive in the playoffs as well.
Lastly, there isn’t a whole lot of depth in Triple-A right now on the bullpen end.
Andrew Hoffmann is the best of the bunch, and he was just called up today to fill in with Michael Lorenzen, who was recently put on the IL. Hoffmann showcased excellent stuff and strikeout ability in Omaha, but his performance in Kansas City this year was a bit inconsistent (9.00 ERA in one appearance). Here’s what he could give the Royals if given an extended shot, based on his Statcast metrics.
Sisk and Michael Fulmer could also provide some depth in the Royals’ bullpen, albeit they have flaws and are likely to contribute minimal production in high-leverage spots.
Other than that? There aren’t many options in Omaha. Thus, the Royals may need to acquire some bullpen help on the trade market if they want to deal Estevez or another Royals reliever and remain in the playoff race.
That feels counterintuitive in my mind.
Nonetheless, the next week should give Royals fans an idea of whether or not the bullpen can carry this Royals team into the postseason, much like last year and in 2014, or if they will be dealt away for offensive help, whether short or long term (like in 2023 when they traded Aroldis Chapman and Scott Barlow).
Recent trends haven’t been favorable for the Royals’ bullpen, which only puts more pressure on the offense and starting pitching. However, the potential is there to rebound, as their performance from March to the end of May demonstrated.
Safe to say, pitching coaches Brian Sweeney and Zach Bove, and bullpen coach Mitch Stetter have their work cut out for them.
Photo Credit: Charlie Riedel | AP