I am traveling back from Ireland today, which explains my lack of posts and coverage on Bluesky and Twitter beyond the occasional retweet here and there. I have some time to wait in the airport for my flight, so I figured I would write a quick post before getting back to Kansas City.
There’s been a lot to unpack over the past couple of weeks. Thus, I will probably have a post or two over the weekend, talking about the Royals Draft and the upcoming Trade Deadline. In Ireland, I found out the Royals re-acquired Adam Frazier in exchange for infielder Cam Devanney.
Even though it’s a minor deal, it signifies the start of the Trade Deadline season for the Royals and I expect JJ Picollo and the Kansas City front office to be quite active in the next couple of weeks, especially if they’re acquisition of Frazier indicates their direction (i.e., whether they will be buyers or sellers).
However, that’s a post for a different time. Let’s look at three players (two hitters and one pitcher) who will be key for Kansas City after the All-Star Break.
Adam Frazier, INF/OF
The acquisition of Frazier is a bit of a surprise, especially since the Royals declined Frazier’s option last offseason and let him walk in free agency (he ended up signing with the Pirates on a similar deal). Picollo acquired Cavan Biggio to perhaps fill his role, but Biggio failed to do much at the MLB level and is currently in Triple-A Omaha.
Prior to his demotion, Biggio was hitting .174 with a .534 OPS in 82 plate appearances. He also wasn’t showing much progress with his batted-ball Statcast metrics either in his short stint with the Royals at the beginning of the season.
Frazier’s results in Pittsburgh have been far better than Biggio this season.
In 235 plate appearances with the Pirates, the 33-year-old utility player is hitting .255 with a .654 OPS, suitable for a 82 wRC+. However, his Statcast metrics haven’t been all that impressive, as Royals fans can see below via TJ Stats.
Frazier doesn’t walk a lot (5.7%), but he ranks in the 64th percentile in K rate (17.2%), doesn’t whiff much (18.2% whiff rate), and can launch the ball well (40.7% LA Sweet-Spot percentage). He’s the kind of hitter who puts the ball in play productively, especially with runners on base. According to Fangraphs splits, he has a 109 wRC+ with runners on base and a 108 wRC+ with runners in scoring position this year with the Pirates.
My guess is that Frazier will eventually replace John Rave once Mark Canha or Michael Massey gets off the IL. Rave did well in Omaha this year, but he has failed to produce much pop, and he doesn’t bring the veteran presence or experience that Frazier brings this Royals team.
With a .176 average and .505 OPS, it seems to be a matter of time before Rave is optioned back down to Omaha with Drew Waters, who also was demoted recently after he failed to do much in May and June at the plate after a hot start in Kansas City.
Some Royals fans are understandably frustrated with Kansas City trading Devanney, who was lighting it up in Omaha, especially on a Statcast end.
Devanney certainly did all he could in Omaha to earn his call up.
In 289 plate appearances, the 28-year-old infielder hit 18 home runs and posted a batting average of .272 and OPS of .931. He also ranked in the 98th percentile in barrel rate, 93rd percentile in wOBA, and 100th percentile in xwOBA. Thus, there are some Royals fans worried that Picollo gave up a player with Brent Rooker potential for Frazier, who likely will only be in Kansas City for a few months.
I get that thought, and I may share more about the Frazier deal in a subsequent post. That said, I found it curious that Matt Quatraro didn’t play Devanney at all when he was called up. While his bat has been legitimate, we also saw Waters and Rave post big numbers in Omaha this year and it didn’t transition well to the Majors. A blemish on Devanney’s Statcast profile is that he ranks in the 9th percentile in whiff rate and 2nd percentile in Z-Contact% (contact in the strike zone).
It’s likely that the Royals were scared off by this and opted to trade Devanney sooner rather than later in order to not deflate his trade value. It’s possible that Devanney could’ve been another Rooker. That said, he also could’ve been another CJ Alexander.
We will see how this pans out but I give credit to Picollo for making a deal sooner rather than later and not waiting too long on a guy who wasn’t going to be a long-term piece anyways.
Maikel Garcia, 3B
After getting overlooked initially, Garcia made the All-Star team after Cleveland’s Jose Ramirez bowed out of the Mid-Summer Classic. He made sure to show his appreciation to the Royals fanbase for the positive response in the wake of his first All-Star selection.
Garcia certainly made his mark in the All-Star game. In two plate appearances, he drew a walk, stole a base, and scored a run on a Bobby Witt Jr. groundout.
It was nice to see Garcia show out on the big stage in Atlanta. However, for the Royals to make a surge in the second half, the third baseman will need to continue to be an All-Star player, especially at the plate.
After a down season in 2024 (70 wRC+), Garcia is hitting .297 with a eight home runs, 40 RBI, 18 stolen bases, and a 127 wRC+ in 386 plate appearances. He’s been the second most-valuable position player on the Royals roster with a 2.5 fWAR, behind only Witt (4.8). He’s shown much more power this year, as demonstrated by his home run total and .157 ISO, both improvements from a season ago.
However, Garcia has hit the skids slightly in July.
According to Fangraphs, he is hitting .209 with a 48 wRC+ in July. The good news is that his approach hasn’t changed much. His BB/K ratio in July is 0.75 and his 8.7% K rate is his lowest mark of any month this season.
Conversely, his ISO this month is .070 and his BABIP is .231, significantly down from his .329 mark for the season. He also is making more soft contact this month, as demonstrated by his 15.4% soft-contact percentage via Fangraphs batted ball splits. That is 1.5% higher than his season-long mark.
His TJ Stats Statcast profile demonstrates that Garcia’s plate discipline has been elite. However, his hard-hit and batted-ball metrics are a bit more pedestrian, which could be an indicator of a further offensive slide in the second half.
As Royals fans can see above, there is a 16-point gap between his actual wOBA and xwOBA, which typically points to future regression. Furthermore, he ranks in the 10th percentile in pull rate and 14th percentile in Pull Air%. Those are also two signs that don’t bode well for Garcia’s future batted-ball projection for the remainder of the year.
Nonetheless, the Royals don’t need Garcia to be a cleanup-caliber hitter. If he can provide a .265-.275 average with a .760-.770 OPS, that will be more than enough with his baserunning and defensive upside. Even if he only hits 10-12 home runs, his other tools make him a productive player.
That said, we have seen Garcia have months where he slides in a big way at the plate (which happened last year). Hopefully, Garcia can pull out of this July slump, finish the month strong, and parlay that into a solid overall second half.
Cole Ragans, SP
Ragans has only made 10 starts this year due to a strained rotator cuff. Unfortunately, before he went on the IL, the numbers weren’t great for Royals ace who finished fourth in the AL Cy Young race in 2024.
In 48.2 IP, he posted a 5.18 ERA and 1.29 WHIP, significant increases from his numbers a season ago. Even though the results weren’t good, his underlying metrics left room for optimism with the Royals lefty starter.
According to Fangraphs, Ragans’ xERA was 2.66, his FIP was 2.40, and his xFIP was 2.47. These positive metrics were mostly due to 36.4% K rate and 28.7% K-BB%, which are 7.1% and 8.2% improvements from a season ago.
Unfortunately, he’s been bit by the long ball, which explains his inflated ERA. His HR/FB rate of 10.9% is 2.1% higher than a year ago, and his 8.7% barrel rate allowed is 2.5% higher as well.
Here’s how the rest of his Statcast and TJ Stuff profile looks via his TJ Stats Summary.
Honestly, for a pitcher with an ERA over five, his TJ Stats profile is pretty encouraging. His overall TJ Stuff+ is 104 with four of his five offerings sporting grades of 50 or higher (which is good). His zone rate is above average at 52%, as is his chase rate (29.4%) and xwOBACON (.352). His whiff rate has also been elite, as demonstrated by his 32.6% mark.
It’s possible that if Ragans is fully healthy and recovered, he could be the pitcher that helps push the Royals into the postseason.
That said, it will take some time, as Picollo mentioned in an interview that while Ragans had begun his throwing program again, he won’t be ready until August at the earliest.
Ragans’ progression over the next two weeks could determine what the Royals do with pitcher Seth Lugo, who will likely be a free agent this offseason.
If Picollo and Quatraro believe that Ragans is progressing well and will be ready, they could deal Lugo, patchwork the rotation for a couple of weeks, and then lean on Ragans down the stretch with Kris Bubic, Noah Cameron, Michael Wacha, and Michael Lorenzen pitching behind him.
Even non-Royals fans are optimistic about what Ragans could provide the Royals rotation in the second half, despite the rough start to 2025.
If Ragans hits any setbacks in his recovery, or if he is not ready for a full load when he returns, it’s possible that the Royals could keep Lugo, especially if they are confident that they will make a run for a Wild Card spot. The acquisition of Frazier makes me think that the Royals believe they may be more “buyers” than “sellers”, though I think they will be open to all options at the Trade Deadline.
Nonetheless, Royals fans need to keep a close eye on social media for reports on Ragans.
What his status is by the end of the month could dictate what the Royals roster could look like by August 1st.
Photo Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images