I will be heading to Ireland for about 10 days, so I wanted to at least get in a quick “Jottings” post before I leave (I am currently visiting my sister, brother-in-law, and niece in Portland, Maine). I won’t go into too much depth here, but I wanted to share some thoughts on the Royals before making the trip across the Atlantic.
Another Stellar Outing From Cameron
I keep thinking regression will come for Noah Cameron at some point. Thankfully, that day wasn’t on Monday against the Pirates.
Cameron had one of his best outings of the year in the Royals’ 9-3 victory on Monday at Kauffman (hey, a home victory). The St. Joseph native not only pitched seven innings (a career-high), but he also allowed three hits, two runs, one walk, and struck out seven. The lone blemish he had was a two-run home run given up to former friend Tommy Pham on a 3-2 changeup that found way too much of the zone.
Even though Cameron gave up that homer in the third, Cameron shored up his command and produced a stellar outing, especially when looking at his chase and whiff rate metrics via TJ Stats.
Against a Pirates offense that has been a bit of a rollercoaster, Cameron produced a 34.5% chase rate and 31% whiff rate. On a whiff rate end, his curveball (83.3%) and changeup (57.1%) were his best offerings. In terms of xwOBCON, he did an excellent job minimizing hard contact with his four-seamer (.257), which also was his most-thrown offering (34.9% usage) on Monday.
Cameron kept most of his offerings in the zone, around thigh-high against the Pirates. Even though he made a mistake to Pham, the strategy worked for the most part, as evidenced by his three hits allowed. Here’s a look at his pitch type and description zone charts, and both show that he had success with his mix against Pittsburgh.
Cameron lived around the edges, and that worked against a free-swinging Pirates team. Pittsburgh hasn’t particularly been a good hitting squad this year, as they rank 29th in OPS and runs scored. That said, they had good recent performances against the Mets and St. Louis, so it was nice to see Cameron keep a bad offense down.
In 11 starts and 63.1 IP, Cameron is posting a 2.56 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. His xERA is also solid at 3.32, and while his 20.2% K rate is slightly below league average, his 8.1% walk rate is slightly below. I still worry about his stuff overall. Even against Pittsburgh, he only produced a TJ Stuff+ of 95 overall, which is below average.
At some point, better teams will take advantage of his slightly below-average stuff, much like hitters recently have against Daniel Lynch IV (who’s currently on the IL). For now, I will respect and enjoy what Cameron is doing, especially as a No. 5 Starter who didn’t make the squad on Opening Day.
Bobby Getting Into MVP Mode
I know I’m biased, but I still think it’s ridiculous that Jacob Wilson got the starting shortstop nod for the All-Star game over Bobby Witt Jr. I do believe both should be All-Stars. Furthermore, I don’t want to take anything away from Wilson, who’s had a tremendous sophomore season with the A’s.
At the same time, when looking at fWAR and the complete profiles of both shortstops, Bobby has been better than Wilson so far this season.
Yes, Wilson has a higher batting average than Witt as well as a higher wRC+. However, Wilson does play his home games in the second-most hitter-friendly park in baseball, currently (compared to Kauffman, which ranks 28th, according to Statcast Park Factors). Additionally, Witt is also a superior defensive player (13.7 Def to Wilson’s 1.4) and baserunner (4.4 BsR to Wilson’s -0.3).
In my eyes, most voters just looked at batting average and wRC+. They voted Wilson because of that, which is a shame since shortstop is a position where complete value (including defense and baserunning) matters so much.
Even though Witt got overlooked for the starting gig, it seems like he’s using that as motivation for a dark-horse MVP push in the second half.
In 31 plate appearances in July, Bobby is hitting .429 with a 1.131 OPS, two home runs, seven RBI, and 10 runs scored. He has also been much more efficient on the basepaths since April. After being caught four times in March and April (with nine stolen bases), he was only caught stealing twice from May to July. Over those three months, he has 15 stolen bases, bringing his total SB count up to 24. That leads all players in the American League, according to Fangraphs.
The power has also improved in the summer months, as evidenced by a .250 ISO in July, which represents a 31-point improvement from his performance in June. Here’s a look at his Fangraphs monthly splits, and after an “okay” May (103 wRC+), he has turned it on in the past two months.
The strikeout rate has been a bit high in July at 25.8%, which is his highest mark in any month thus far. That said, Bobby’s strength as a hitter is in his aggressiveness. Hence, Royals fans can live with the strikeouts as long as he’s producing results, which is the case this month (.476 wOBA and 209 wRC+).
Speaking of results, Witt continued to tap into his “summer” power tool on Monday with a big two-run home run that got the Royals going in the bottom of the third.
The numbers haven’t been as gaudy as a year ago, but I also think we’re finally seeing the player who finished second in the AL MVP race a year ago. If that’s the case, we may be due for a monster second half from Bobby that not only could catapult him back into the AL MVP race (along with Seattle’s Cal Raleigh and New York’s Aaron Judge), but also get the Royals back in the postseason discussion.
The Royals still have a long way to go in the playoff hunt. But at 44-48, they are tied for second in the AL Central with the Twins and have improved their playoff odds to 11.4% after Monday’s win, which puts them ahead of the Guardians, whose odds are 6.9%.
Optimistic Royals fans have taken solace that the Royals could be this year’s Detroit Tigers, who had a mediocre first half but went on a run in the second half to make it to the ALDS.
For the Royals to accomplish something similar in 2025, they will need Witt to carry the lineup (and get pieces around him that can get hot as well).
Garcia and Estevez: All-Star Snubs?
On Saturday, MLB announced its All-Star reserve selections. While Witt was expected, Kris Bubic also made the All-Star team as Kansas City’s second selection.
It’s incredible to see Bubic make the All-Star game, especially after he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2023 and primarily pitched in the bullpen last year. With a 2.36 ERA and 2.9 fWAR, Bubic certainly deserved his first All-Star selection.
Two Royals who didn’t make the team but had cases were Maikel Garcia and Carlos Estevez, as Rogers mentioned in a Tweet on Saturday.
Estevez had a case as he has 24 saves, which is the second-most in the AL, behind only Houston’s Josh Hader (who has 25). The 32-year-old Dominican-born reliever has had a sensational first season with the Royals, accumulating numerous saves while boasting a 2.13 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 38 innings pitched.
He has also been a fan favorite in Kansas City thanks to his post-save celebration.
The main issue with Estevez is that he doesn’t strike out a ton of batters. His K rate is only 20.5% and his K-BB% is 11.5%. Thus, his xERA (4.04) and FIP (3.77) are much higher than his ERA, which has suppressed his fWAR (0.5) a bit.
Furthermore, the TJ Stuff+ metrics haven’t translated into a ton of chases and whiffs, as demonstrated in his TJ Stats Summary profile.
Therefore, while I think Estevez had a case, I think MLB was right to give Bubic the Royals’ lone pitching spot on the AL roster.
As for Garcia, he has a stronger case to be made. The 25-year-old third baseman is slashing .306/.365/.467 with a 130 wRC+. He also has eight home runs, 40 RBI, and 18 stolen bases in 90 games and 336 plate appearances.
Maikel has been a hitting machine for the Royals this year, a welcome sight after he had a bit of a down season in 2024.
While the surface-level metrics are nice, a deeper dive into Garcia’s profile illustrates why he just missed out on an All-Star spot.
His 2.3 fWAR is impressive, but according to Fangraphs, it still ranks behind Boston’s Alex Bregman (2.4), Cleveland’s Jose Ramirez (2.7), and Houston’s Isaac Paredes (2.8). He has also declined slightly in baserunning (0.1 BsR) and fielding (1.9 DEF), two categories where he excelled in 2024.
Lastly, his Statcast profile also demonstrates that the power still isn’t quite there to reach All-Star levels, even though it is encouraging and a positive sign of things to come for Garcia in the future.
Now, let’s take a look at the TJ Stats profiles of Ramirez and Bregman, who both made the All-Star team over Garcia.
They’re not significantly better, but they still edge out Garcia’s profile. Furthermore, both have demonstrated better power profiles than Garcia, which unfortunately matters a lot when it comes to All-Star voting.
Much like Witt, if Garcia can continue this hot start into the second half (and perhaps a bit more power and home runs), then he may make his case for All-MLB votes by the end of the season and an All-Star berth in 2026.
Photo Credit: Alika Jenner/Getty Images