The Royals split their series against the Mariners on Thursday, beating Seattle 3-2. Kansas City did just enough offensively, as no one had more than one hit in the game (they only had five hits total, five fewer than the Mariners). However, big hits from Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino in the later innings proved to be the difference for the Boys in Blue.
While Vinnie’s clutch hit (and Bobby’s sensational slide) captured Royals fans’ attention on Thursday, it shouldn’t be forgotten how well Seth Lugo pitched against the Mariners.
Not only did the 35-year-old get his sixth win of the season, but he also produced another quality start on the mound for Kansas City. Lugo went 6.2 innings, allowed one run on six hits and two walks while striking out seven.
Not only did Lugo step up and even the series for the Royals on Thursday, but he’s been pretty sensational over the last calendar month since returning from the IL (due to a blister issue).
After posting a 4.09 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in four starts and 22 innings pitched in May, Lugo has been stellar since. In June, he sported a 1.26 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in five starts and 28.1 IP. He’s only had one start in July, but his ERA this month is currently 1.42 and his WHIP is 1.26.
Once again, according to TJ Stats, Lugo was able to generate plenty of chase and whiff against the Mariners’ lineup, thanks to his nine-pitch arsenal (highlighted by his curveball, which rated as his best pitch via TJ Stuff+).
Lugo threw his curveball 19.8% of the time against Seattle and generated a 31.2% chase and 50% whiff with the pitch. When Mariners hitters did make contact, they did damage, as demonstrated by the .835 xwOBACON allowed on the breaking offering. That said, with a 106 TJ Stuff+ and 63 grade, Lugo’s offerings proved to be difficult for Mariners hitters, even if they didn’t find the zone all that much (20% zone rate).
Below is an example of Lugo spinning the curve effectively to punch out Julio Rodriguez in the bottom of the third inning.
Interestingly enough, Lugo continues to thrive not necessarily because of his stuff, but rather due to the sheer diversity of his pitches. Based on his pitch chart data, he threw a lot of pitches in hittable areas on Thursday night in Seattle. However, with nine different offerings, Mariners hitters couldn’t sit on any pitches, and thus, they failed to be effective overall against Lugo’s arsenal (.294 xwOBACON overall).
Here’s a look at his pitch type and description charts via Savant from his most recent outing.
It’s interesting to see Lugo get a lot of called strikes on pitches in the zone, and a ton of whiffs on pitches out of the zone, especially with his curveball (notice all those swinging strikes on gloveside pitches low and away). His zone wasn’t particularly sharp overall (40.6% zone rate). Still, he threw and generated enough strikes in the zone to keep hitters honest and unsettled (which also resulted in seven strikeouts, as seen in the video below).
Lugo was key to limiting Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh, and Randy Arozarena, their 2-through-5 hitters, to an 0-for-13 night with only one walk and six strikeouts (which included a Golden Sombrero from Rodriguez). Yes, the lower part of the order for the Mariners had big nights (including former Twin Jorge Polanco, who had three hits). That said, the Royals are going to win more games than they lose when their starter can hold the 2-through-5 hitters down as effectively as Lugo did on Thursday.
After his most recent start, the 35-year-old righty has a 2.65 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 1.1 fWAR in 16 starts and 95 IP. According to Fangraphs, he is one of three Royals starters with an ERA under three (Kris Bubic and Noah Cameron are the others), and his xFIP of 4.01 ranks third among Royals starters with 10 or more IP (behind Cole Ragans and Bubic).
Thus, one could make the argument that Lugo is back to his 2024 Cy Young form, which is much-needed in a rotation that won’t be getting Ragans back anytime soon and likely won’t see much contribution from Alec Marsh or Kyle Wright, who have had injury setbacks recently, based on an Anne Rogers report.
However, with Lugo likely to be a free agent this offseason (he has a player option) and the Royals sporting 9.3% odds of making the postseason, according to Fangraphs, it has been widely rumored that JJ Picollo and the Royals will likely trade him before the Trade Deadline.
That is a tough dilemma for the Royals, especially since being “sellers” at the Deadline wasn’t something they imagined back in Spring Training.
Nonetheless, let’s look at Lugo’s season thus far (especially since coming off the IL), and what fans can expect as the Royals shop Lugo on the trade market over the next month.
Lugo Generating More Chases and Whiffs Since Return From IL
On May 17th, the Royals placed Lugo on the IL due to a finger injury, retroactive to May 14th (just a few days after his six-inning outing against the Boston Red Sox at home). He returned on May 30th for a home start against the Tigers and struggled a bit. He only went 3.1 IP and allowed four runs on five hits and two walks (he also gave up two home runs).
Since then, over six starts and 35 IP, he has a 1.29 ERA, a 2.95 FIP, a 3.76 xFIP, a 9.77 K/9, 3.34 BB/9, and 0.51 HR/9, according to Fangraphs. It’s also interesting to see, via TJ Stats, how Lugo’s stuff has fared pre- and post-injury, as well as the differences in zone, whiff, and chase rates.
Based on pitch break plot data, he’s tightened up the movement on slurve and slow curve, as well as added more vertical movement to the changeup. That latter movement adjustment has helped the changeup blend more with the sinker, which explains the 30-point improvement in xwOBACON on the offspeed pitch since his return from the IL.
Overall, the stuff hasn’t changed much for Lugo since his return.
His overall TJ Stuff+ is down a point (98), and only the changeup (96) and sweeper (108) have seen improvements in pitch quality. However, it does seem like Lugo is adjusting his approach when attacking hitters with his breaking pitches.
Pre-injury, Lugo located his breaking offerings in a centralized area of the strike zone, which likely contributed to his low overall chase (21.9%) and whiff rates (19.3%). Now, based on pitch heatmap charts, he has been locating pitches more effectively in different areas, which has led to increases in chase rates (27.8%) and whiff rates (24.6%).
Here’s a look at those charts via Savant.
Before his IL stint, Lugo located his breaking offerings down and in the strike zone. After the IL stint, he’s focused more on elevating the pitches up or attacking the glove-side waste zone. Not only does the strategy seem to be paying off in terms of chases and whiffs, but his xwOBCON has gone from .416 pre-injury to .382 post-injury.
Lastly, Lugo’s strikeout rate is trending in the right direction thanks to this new approach, as he’s throwing fewer pitches in the zone since returning from the IL.
Thus, Royals fans have seen an improvement from Lugo since his return from the short IL stint. That said, how does his pitch quality and Statcast metrics compare to what he did a year ago?
Let’s examine the comparison from 2024 to 2025 for Lugo via TJ Stats.
He’s not been as good this year as he was last season. His TJ Stuff+ is down one, his chase and whiff rate are lower, and his xwOBACON is higher. However, he has located more pitches in the zone this year, though much of that is due to his high 54.6% zone rate before injury.
Based on what he did a year ago, the post-injury Lugo is more akin to the 2024 Lugo than the 2025 pre-injury Lugo. He’s not throwing so much in the zone, and that has benefitted him as it has induced more chases and whiffs as well as less productive contact.
He may not have gotten off to a Cy Young start in 2025, but based on the metrics and quality of his play, Lugo seems to be closer than ever to his 2024 form. That is a positive sign for the Royals as they aim to re-enter the postseason hunt.
Will the Royals Pull the Trigger on a Lugo Trade?
The primary dilemma for Picollo and the Royals right now is that Lugo has a player option for $15 million in 2026. If Lugo continues his current trajectory (which I think he will), he has no reason to take the option, as he will likely command more on the free agent market.
Because of this situation, many have speculated that Lugo will be a popular target on the trade market for playoff teams desperate for starting pitching depth.
According to MLB Trade Rumors’ poll, 63.8% of readers believe that Lugo will be traded by the Deadline. If you ask most Royals fans, they likely will agree with that outcome as well for Lugo.
The primary issue, however, with Lugo is not necessarily whether he will be traded, but rather what kind of package the Royals will receive in return for him.
The Baseball Trade Value trade simulator can be a crap shoot. However, it can give fans an idea of how much value certain players and/or prospects may possess on the trade market.
Unfortunately, the value for Lugo isn’t great, according to their model, as seen below.
Lugo has a -0.2 Surplus value, which means that the Royals would likely have to include a player or prospect of value to make any trade work, according to their model.
I think that rating from BTV is a bit rash and undersells Lugo quite a bit.
Starting pitchers, especially with his pedigree, would be valued by a team with playoff aspirations. He’s good enough to start Games 1 through 3 in a postseason series. He’s not like Michael Lorenzen, who was relegated to the bullpen in the postseason. Thus, I think Lugo has more value on the trade market than his BTV surplus value suggests.
However, is Lugo valuable enough to get Owen Caissie or Kevin Alcantara (or both) in a deal with the Cubs? Caissie and Alcantara could not just help their current outfield situation, but could also turn into valuable long-term outfield options.
Could Lugo net Bryan Reynolds in a trade package from Pittsburgh, as Josh Keiser, formerly of One Royals Way, suggested?
What could realistically be on the table in a trade for Lugo is yet to be determined, unfortunately. That said, the stronger Lugo continues to look on the mound, which has been the case since June 1st, the more likely his value will increase by the July 31st Trade Deadline.
Which will make it nearly impossible for the Royals to keep him in Kansas City, even if they return to a realistic position for a Wild Card spot.
Photo Credit: Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images
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