It’s been a rollercoaster of a season thus far for the Kansas City Royals.
On one hand, the Royals are 7-7, 1.5 games behind the first-place Detroit Tigers in the AL Central. Conversely, they have a -7 run differential and an xW-L of 6-8. That said, they have been shut out three times this year, with their latest coming on Friday night against the Guardians in Cleveland (which bumped them from second to third in the AL Central Division).
Poor hitting has significantly contributed to the Royals’ inconsistency as a club this year. According to Fangraphs, the Royals rank near the bottom of the league in many statistical categories.
In addition to ranking 28th in hitting fWAR, the Royals also rank 23rd in average, 25th in OBP, 27th in OPS, 28th in runs scored, and 29th in home runs hit. Thankfully, Kansas City’s pitching has picked up the slack in the offense’s absence.
According to Fangraphs, the Royals rank 11th in pitching fWAR, 4th in ERA, and 11th in FIP. Unfortunately, the pitching staff received a blow on Friday, with Hunter Harvey landing on the IL with a grade 1 teres strain.
Thus, if the Royals want to match or surpass their 86-win total from a year ago, they must improve on the hitting end. Plenty of time is left in the season, with 148 games remaining. However, the Royals are a bit behind where they were at this point a season ago.
Here’s how the Royals fared offensively via Fangraphs from March 27th (Opening Day) to April 11th in 2024.
Through April 11th, 2024, the Royals had six hitters with a wRC+ of 80 or higher and four with wRC+ marks over 100. That included two hitters with wRC+ marks over 200: Bobby Witt Jr. and MJ Melendez.
Now, let’s look at what that list looks like this season (March 28th to April 11th):
The Royals have seven hitters with wRC+ marks over 80 and three with wRC+ marks over 100 (Mark Canha, Maikel Garcia, and Witt). However, things drop off pretty severely after the 7th-ranked hitter via wRC+.
Kansas City has five regular hitters with wRC+ marks under 60: Michael Massey (57), Salvador Perez (54), Vinnie Pasquantino (53), Hunter Renfroe (20), and Melendez (10). All these hitters have hit regularly in the 3 through 7 spots in the batting order in some capacity.
Much has been made on social media about the Royals’ bottom of the batting order, and whether or not they should have added another hitter this offseason to help that area. That said, the Royals expected production from that group of hitters, and they have been severely disappointing through 14 games this season.
That said, we are still in the very early stages of the season. Hence, are these struggles from these five hitters a sign of significant regression ahead? Or is this just a cold start that can be rectified once they figure things out at the plate (and get some batted ball luck)?
Looking at their Process+ rolling charts, which measure the trend of their power, contact ability, and decision-making at the plate, could give an idea of whether or not Royals fans should be optimistic about their outlook. Furthermore, I will look at what they have done this year via Process+ and their charts from a season ago. That will help fans measure whether or not there’s been any kind of difference, positive or negative, from a season ago in this form of hitting skill measurement.
So let’s look at those five hitters’ performances via Process+ this season and whether or not Royals fans should remain patient or panic about their outlook for this season.
Vinnie Pasquantino
Definite Patience
It’s been a brutal start for Vinnie, who, after yesterday’s shoutout loss, is now hitting .167 with a .239 wOBA in 54 plate appearances.
On the positive end, he leads the Royals with 10 RBI, which is what they need from him in the No. 3 spot in the batting order. Furthermore, his xwOBA is .264, which shows that some positive regression may come once the BABIP stabilizes (he’s got a .167 mark after Friday).
Here’s what Vinnie’s Process+ looks like so far this season.
The power and decision-making trends are concerning, as they significantly weigh down his overall Process+ mark (the white trend line). However, his contact ability remains strong, as it has not dipped below average at any point so far this season.
When compared to what Vinnie did last year via Process+, the decision-making trend was pretty below average for most of the season. However, his contact ability remained the same, and his power was much better for most of the year until the end, when it flipped in August and September (thus making his Process+ chart look similar to what he’s doing this year).
Some other metrics demonstrate some red flags regarding Vinnie’s power outlook for the remainder of the year. His average exit velocity is 87.5 MPH, and his hard-hit rate is 30.2%, both significant declines from a season ago (91 MPH and 45.8% hard hit rate).
The power trend will flip soon, especially when he stops pressing at the plate (his O-Swing% of 39% is the third-highest mark on the team via Fangraphs). That should, at the very least, help Vinnie produce the numbers that he did in 2024 at the very minimum.
Salvador Perez
Moderate Patience
Salvy’s start has not been excellent, as he has hit .208 with a .256 wOBA in 57 plate appearances. However, his power tool has been okay despite not producing tangible results (.094 ISO).
Salvy’s power got off to a slow start, but he’s turned it around since then, and it’s been above average after April 5th. The main difference with Salvy’s start, which has been particularly driving down his overall Process+ trend, has been his meager contact ability, which has been severely below average.
His decision-making has been below average, but Salvy in 2024 followed a similar trend via Process+.
Salvy is a free-swinging hitter, and at 34 years old, that’s who he will be going forward, both this season and beyond. The good thing about Salvy is that he’s always been able to make better-than-average contact and demonstrate excellent power. He’s lagging in the former category this year, but it’s too early to panic and think it won’t turn around soon.
Nonetheless, whether or not his power skills bounce back could make or break Salvy’s outlook, so I think fans should only have moderate patience with Salvy. At his age, skills naturally decline, and he seems to be taking on more catching duties with Freddy Fermin struggling at the plate (.167 average, .180 wOBA). That increased load will impact his ability at the plate, whether the Royals or Salvy want to admit it.
Regarding contact, his Z-Contact% (contact on pitches in the strike zone) is 88.6%, and his overall contact rate is 75.4%, both improvements from a year ago. Thus, this trend should uptick soon, which should help Salvy produce better overall results (especially if the power DOES bounce back).
Michael Massey
Slight Patience
There were lofty expectations for Massey in 2025, especially after a promising 2024 season. In 356 plate appearances, he hit .259 with 14 home runs and 102 wRC+. Unfortunately, Massey hasn’t been able to carry that performance over this year (at least so far).
In 50 plate appearances, he is hitting .213 with a .231 wOBA. He hasn’t provided much in the power department (.064 ISO), and his walk rate is low for his standards (2.0%). His Process+ chart also confirms this trend, as his contact ability is strong, but his power and decision-making have been lackluster thus far.
Much like Salvy and Vinnie, Massey has tended to be more free-swinging at the plate. However, his power hasn’t developed, even though he has been able to accumulate home runs at a surprising rate. His Process+ chart this season looks similar to what he did a year ago, even though this season is a far smaller sample.
That’s why I am concerned with Massey and his outlook this season. Being subpar in two significant categories puts tremendous pressure on the other category to carry one’s profile.
Massey was an above-average hitter on a Process+ end last season due to his strong contact ability. However, if that contact dips even a bit, he quickly becomes a below-average hitter. For a second baseman, it’s not that Massey’s hitting profile is terrible. That said, he shouldn’t be in the No. 5 spot in the batting order (7 or 8 makes more sense).
MJ Melendez
Slight Panic
Much has been made about Melendez’s struggles this year, and I already talked about him on this blog this season. However, I wanted to see his Process+ and profile with the new swing changes.
Based on his early Process+ results, things aren’t looking good for MJ. All three categories are below average, and he’s trending down overall. His power has also declined significantly recently, which is concerning since that has always been one of his better tools at the Major (and Minor) League level.
Slow starts aren’t anything new with MJ, as he showed via Process+ a season ago.
His contact was pretty putrid a year ago, and it weighed down his Process+ despite above-average marks in decision-making and power. He was able to turn things around in August, and he trended in the second half as an above-average hitter via Process+ for the remainder of the season (with his Process+ trend even touching the 120 mark in September, which is quite good).
It’s still early, but the eye test with his new swing isn’t impressive, and the data, especially on a Process+ end, doesn’t offer much consolation. His Z-Contact% is 72.5%, eight percent lower than his mark a year ago, and his hard-hit rate is also down at 38.9%, down from 45% in 2024.
It’s possible that Melendez can get his timing and swinging clicking again. That said, I doubt that the Royals are as patient with him in 2025 as in 2024 and 2023, especially if their offense continues to rank toward the bottom of the league.
Hunter Renfroe
Definite Panic
I was hopeful about Renfroe this season. I felt he was hampered by injuries last year and that a fully healthy Spring Training would help him recover his power and home-run stroke. One of my bold predictions was that he would hit 20+ homers this season (he only hit 15 in 2024).
So far, it’s been more of the same from Renfroe, not suitable for a guy they’re paying $7.5 million this season.
Renfroe is hitting .143 with a .196 wOBA in 39 plate appearances. His ISO is down to .029, and his 25.6% strikeout rate is his highest mark since 2020, when it was 26.6% with the Rays. His Process+ rolling chart demonstrates discouraging early trends from Renfroe in all three categories, with his overall Process+ dipping under 90.
At this point, I am not sure what Renfroe brings to the lineup. He doesn’t make much contact anymore like he did last season. Furthermore, his power, the main reason the Royals got him in free agency last offseason, may be tapped at this point in his career, based on Process+ trends from a season ago.
It’s one thing if Massey is producing a Process+ chart like that. Massey is a homegrown player who is 27 years old, so there’s still some upside in the short and long term.
For a hitter like Renfroe, who’s 33 and will be a free agent after this season? The tolerance should be a lot lower. The Royals would be better served giving at-bats to someone in Omaha like John Rave, Tyler Gentry, or Joey Wiemer than Renfroe, who’s also a drain in the field and on the basepaths.
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[…] Kevin O’Brien at Royals Reporter looks at some Royals hitters going through cold stretches. […]
[…] Hitting has been a sore spot for the Royals so far this season and Vinnie has been one struggling out of the gate. Thankfully, the Royals first baseman snapped out of his funk a bit, collecting four hits in the three-game span, including his second home run of the year against Luis Ortiz on Saturday. […]