The Royals are 7-6, coming off a series win against the Twins, where they took three of four at Kauffman Stadium. On Friday, they start a big road trip in Cleveland this weekend and then move to the Bronx and Detroit next week. A winning road trip could help the Royals return toward the top of the AL Central division (especially with two series against division opponents).
However, on Friday afternoon, the Royals shared a surprising, and honestly, deflating, set of injury-related news.
According to MLB.com Royals beat writer Anne Rogers, Harvey has a grade 1 strain, which he felt while warming up for Thursday afternoon’s game against the Twins.
Rogers’ tweet has not shared a timetable for return just yet. However, according to Locked on Royals podcast host Jack Johnson, the typical return for a pitcher with a grade 1 teres strain is 2-3 weeks.
The loss of Harvey is a significant blow to the Royals’ bullpen, especially the back-half, which has consisted of Harvey, Lucas Erceg, and Carlos Estevez. The Royals have been much more dependable in the later innings with the three, a far cry from a year ago when Will Smith, Chris Stratton, and James McArthur struggled with consistency in the 7th through 9th innings in the first half of the season.
The Royals hope that the promotion of Steven Cruz from Omaha can help boost the bullpen in Harvey’s absence. It’s unlikely that Cruz will provide precisely what Harvey has produced so far in 2025, especially since Cruz only has 18.1 innings under his belt at the Major League level.
What can Cruz provide as a reliever in Kansas City, regardless of how long his stint will be?
In this post, I will look at the impact of Harvey’s injury on the Royals bullpen, what Royals fans can expect from Cruz, based on what he’s done in the minors and his brief MLB tenure thus far, and another option who could be utilized should Cruz struggle or if Harvey is out of an extended period.
What Harvey’s Absence Does to the Bullpen
In 5.1 IP, Harvey has been one of the Royals’ most valuable relievers, even if he hasn’t had any saves thus far this season. In addition to posting a 0.00 ERA and 0.19 WHIP, he’s produced a stellar K-BB% and strong tjStuff+ metrics and pitch grades via TJ Stats data.
As Royals fans can see from the chart above, Harvey has produced a 101 overall tjStuff+ with three pitches sporting a 100 tjStuff+ or higher. He also has two pitches (four-seamer and splitter) with grades over 50. His zone rate is 51.9%, and his whiff rate is 31.4%. His stellar marks in those two categories demonstrate why his K-BB% is high this season.
His splitter has been the biggest key to his success on the whiff rate end. He throws the pitch 21.5% of the time and generates a 50% whiff rate and 36.4% chase rate. Harvey’s ability to induce hitters to chase the splitter out of the zone is important, especially since it only has a zone rate of 35.3%, a subpar mark.
As Baltimore’s Ryan Mountcastle learned last Friday, the movement on the pitch, especially when located effectively, can be tough for hitters to stay disciplined on.
Interestingly enough, while Harvey’s metrics on his splitter are encouraging on a tjStuff+ level, they’ve been less impressive on a PLV end (the same with his slider). That can be seen in the PLV arsenal distribution chart below.
Thus, Harvey’s splitter and slider seem to have some flukiness, though it’s too early in the season to know for sure. Regardless of Harvey’s arsenal’s “lasting power,” he has still metrically been the Royals’ best reliever via Fangraphs.
Harvey’s 0.2 fWAR and 1.16 xFIP are the best marks of any Royals reliever through 13 games. That includes Erceg (0.2 fWAR and 2.87 xFIP) and Estevez (0.0 fWAR and 5.18 xFIP). Harvey has been the best strikeout-generating reliever in the Royals’ bullpen, as he is the only pitcher in the bullpen with a K/9 in the double digits.
Thus, the Royals need a pitcher who can produce strikeouts and pump the gas (Harvey’s 95.8 MPH average fastball velocity is the second-best mark for a Royals reliever).
Based on that specific need, it makes sense why the Royals opted for Cruz over other options in Omaha to fill in Harvey’s spot in the Royals bullpen, with Harvey on the 15-day IL.
What Can Cruz Bring to the Royals’ Bullpen?
Cruz was called up for his stuff and potential, not necessarily his early results in Omaha this season.
He has a 6.00 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in three outings and innings pitched. Those high marks are primarily fueled by a 14.3 BB% and a .600 BABIP. However, his 42.9% K rate offsets the high walk rate, as his 28.6% K-BB% illustrates. His pitch quality also rates well via TJ Stats metrics.
Two of Cruz’s three pitches have a tjStuff+ over 100 and grades over 60. His overall tjStuff+ is 106, demonstrating his arsenal’s power potential at the Major League level.
He has struggled to throw strikes this season, as his zone rate is subpar at 40.5%. That has resulted in hitters being more patient against him, evidenced by his 25% chase rate. Nonetheless, hitters have difficulty making contact when Cruz’s pitches are located in the zone, as demonstrated by their 31.2% whiff rate.
Cruz’s pitch mix has been hard to quantify, especially at the Major League level. This challenge is partly due to the small sample size (Cruz has accumulated fewer than 20 IP in the Majors). Another issue is that many of Cruz’s pitches are tweeners, as his cutter and slider often look similar in movement and velocity.
Baseball Savant showed a big jump in cutter usage from 2023 to 2024. However, his slider essentially disappeared last season via Savant.
It’s unlikely that Cruz didn’t throw any sliders, especially after throwing nearly 30% of them in 2023. PLV had Cruz throwing sliders 22% of the time last season. However, according to their metrics, they also didn’t have him throwing any sinkers in 2024 after throwing the pitch 22% of the time in 2023.
Savant still had Cruz seeing a sinker usage decline in 2024, as they had him throwing that pitch 3.7% of the time. Still, he’s the kind of pitcher who throws pitches that profile so similarly, which not only makes it tough to categorize but also makes it challenging for hitters to recognize at the plate as well.
That’s not a bad thing. In the clip compilation below, notice the similar movement on his 2023 “slider” and 2024 “cutter,” both producing swinging strikes.
If a hitter thinks “cutter”, he’s not thinking “slider”-esque horizontal movement. And yet, that’s what Cruz can do with his pitch, thus making it hard for hitters to scout.
Furthermore, Cruz has shown the ability to throw a more traditional cutter movement-wise, and the pitch’s high velocity can blow hitters away. He showed that last September in the strikeout of San Francisco’s Patrick Bailey on a 93 MPH cutter (nearly 3 MPH faster than the cutter shown in the compilation above).
The Royals need another high-velocity and “wonky” arm in the bullpen, especially in Harvey’s absence. Even when Harvey returns, though, Cruz could push out another right-handed reliever who doesn’t offer much in the fastball department.
That pitcher is Chris Stratton, who has a 7.11 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in 6.1 IP so far in 2025.
Stratton has three pitches with a tjStuff+ over 100, and all four have grades over 50. Even though his four-seamer has decent movement, its lackluster velocity (90.2 MPH) has contributed to awful metrics. The zone rate is 47.5%, the chase rate is under 20%, and the whiff rate is under 5%. Even with decent secondaries, Stratton will fail to succeed with a fastball that sports those characteristics, especially when he throws it 48.8% of the time.
Due to his salary, the Royals will likely hold on to Stratton for a bit longer, hoping the velocity can bump up a bit as the weather gets warmer. However, if it doesn’t, and if Cruz succeeds in limited action, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Cruz replace Stratton on the active roster when Harvey returns.
Who Else Could Help from Omaha?
If Cruz falters, the Royals have two other options, one of which could be called up and impact the bullpen.
One is Jonathan Bowlan, who is off to a strong start in Omaha despite a rough recent outing in which he gave up two runs on two hits and a walk in an inning of work.
Even though the ERA bumped to 3.86 after his last outing, his FIP is more tolerable at 3.01. Furthermore, Bowlan’s four-seamer grades well, with a 36.4% chase rate, 41.2% whiff rate, 103 tjStuff+, and 57 grade. Add that with a slider (52), sinker (58), and changeup (63) that all have grades over 50.
Thus, the profile is there for Bowlan to succeed, and it’s exciting to think about Bowlan’s possible outlook at the Major League level as a middle-innings reliever for the Royals this season (should he get the opportunity).
Another possible option could be Thomas Hatch, who signed a Minor League contract with the Royals this offseason. Hatch, who played last season in Japan, got hit around a bit this spring (9.82 ERA and 2.05 WHIP in 7.1 IP), but he’s performed much better in Omaha.
In 9.2 IP with the Storm Chasers, he has a 2.79 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He also has a 30.8% K rate, a 25.6% K-BB%, and 62.3% Strike%, as seen in the TJ Stats summary card below.
Hatch’s tjStuff+ metrics aren’t as impressive as Bowlan’s or Cruz’s.
His overall tjStuff+ is 99, and he only has two pitches above the 100 mark (slider and four-seamer). However, he has done a good job minimizing productive contact, as evidenced by a 0.336 xwOBA Contact, and inducing plenty of swings out of the zone (31.1% chase rate). Thus, the Royals may look to Hatch as more of a long reliever, which isn’t bad to have, even with the Royals’ rotation strength.
It’s more of a long shot for Hatch to get a call-up anytime soon because he has to be added to the 40-man roster. However, if the Royals do part ways with Stratton, Hatch may not be a bad option to take his place on the roster.
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