The Royals lost their 2025 opener 7-4 in extra innings to the Cleveland Guardians on Thursday. That marks the third-straight Opening Day loss for Kansas City, as they lost to the Twins at Kauffman in the previous two seasons (2023 and 2024).
Even though the result was disappointing, Opening Day at Kauffman Stadium remains an incredible experience, as profiled in this video from the Royals social media team that dropped on Friday, an off day.
The Royals are 0-1, but baseball is a long season, and they still have 161 games. Furthermore, Opening Day is exciting, but it often isn’t an indicator of what the season will be like.
The Royals won season openers in 2021 and 2022 against the Texas Rangers and the Cleveland Guardians, respectively. However, they only won 74 and 65 games in those seasons. Furthermore, they also lost season openers against the Twins in 2023 and 2024. In 2022, they won 56 games. Last year, they won 86 games.
Thus, there’s still a lot of baseball left in the season, which should help console Royals baseball fans who may be overreacting a bit after Thursday’s gut-punching loss.
Still, Opening Day provided glimpses of what the 2025 season could look like, even if it’s not necessarily a “crystal ball” for the remainder of the year. Let’s examine five takeaways from Thursday afternoon at the K.
This Was A “Fired Up” Opening Day Crowd
The Royals announced they sold out Opening Day a few days before the game. Based on attendance, not only was it sold out (37,500 seats), but with the SRO (standing room only) crowd, it surpassed the capacity of previous Opening Days in 2024 (38,775) and 2024 (38,351).
Right at the start of player introductions (they announce the entire roster on Opening Day, including the training staff), Kauffman Stadium possessed an “engaged” energy that I had not seen in my previous Opening Day appearances (I have been at every one since 2021). A “Let’s Go Royals” chant burst out before the Kauffman public address announcer started the introductions. That was pretty atypical, for in previous Opening Days I have attended, most of the fans are just shuffling into the stadium from their pregame tailgate around that time.
This time, most of the fans at Kauffman were in their seats and ready to go.
It wasn’t quite “playoff” level in terms of energy. Opening Day remains a bit of an “event” in itself rather than a baseball game, so many fans still treat the whole experience as more of a “party” than an important “sporting event.” It was common to see fans still partying to music even after the Royals lost by three runs to the rival Guardians (at least that was the case in the parking spot next to ours).
However, the group of fans just there for the “experience” seemed a bit down from previous years. That’s a sign that fans are not just ready for Royals baseball in 2025, but the expectations are higher.
I’m guessing that this Opening Day stadium environment was closer to what fans experienced from 2015-2017 rather than 2018-2024 (except 2020, when no fans were in attendance).
I’m all for this fan base being “locked in” for Royals baseball so early.
Cole Ragans Was Good, Not Great
On Bluesky and Twitter, I posted Ragans’ TJ Stats summary card from Thursday and tried to briefly break down his performance and explain why the Royals shouldn’t panic just yet, even though he wasn’t dominant.
Ragans only had three strikeouts and two walks in five innings pitched against Cleveland. He also gave up three runs on five hits. However, one of his runs allowed was due to Angel Zerpa allowing an inherited runner to score (thanks to a Kyle Manzardo home run). Furthermore, two hits came in the first inning and were lucky based on batted-ball velocity.
Based on his TJ Stats summary card, Ragans still showcased some promising stuff, with his changeup and slider profiling as his best offerings on Thursday.
Three Ragans pitches sported 50 grades or higher (four-seamer, changeup, and slider). His changeup was his most dominant pitch of the afternoon, with not just a 62 grade, but a 53.8% zone rate, 62.5% whiff rate, and 0.152 xwOBA contact allowed.
Here’s a glimpse of Ragans’ changeup getting Cleveland’s Gabriel Arias to strike out swinging on a 3-2 count in the second inning.
The four-seamer was Ragans’ most thrown pitch on Thursday (49.4% usage), and it sported a decent 50 grade. He also minimized productive contact based on the 0.152 xwOBA contact allowed. That said, he only had a zone rate of 36.6% and whiff rate of 11.1% on the offering. How his fastball develops this year could be the difference between being a “good” starter and a “Cy Young finalist”.
Royals fans shouldn’t freak out about his fastball, mediocre whiff rate (22.7%), and zone rate (47%) numbers. The Guardians were one of baseball’s more disciplined hitting teams a season ago. According to Fangraphs, they ranked 6th in contact rate (78.9%) and 8th in BB/K ratio (0.39). Thus, Cleveland’s lineup would be a much more formidable challenge for Ragans than the Twins’ last season, and Ragans held his own, even if he wasn’t dominant.
I expect Ragans will make the proper adjustments, and we will see better results from his pitch repertoire in game two, especially his four-seamer.
Vinnie Pasquantino Could Be Due for A Big Year
After tweaking his hamstring in the last Spring Training game in Arizona (he didn’t play in the two exhibition games against the Rangers in Arlington), Pasquantino’s status for Opening Day was in jeopardy. Thankfully, he was in the lineup on Thursday at DH rather than first base (Cavan Biggio started at first).
Vinnie didn’t show any signs of “injury” against Cleveland. He went 2-for-4 with a home run, a three-run bomb in the bottom of the third that gave the Royals an early 3-1 lead.
Here’s the trajectory, distance, and exit velocity on Vinnie’s home run via Savant.
In addition to his home run, Vinnie hit a double in the ninth inning off of Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase. His double produced the tying run, which sent the game into extra innings (Michael Massey hit a sac fly that scored Freddy Fermin, who came in to pinch run for Vinnie).
Pasquantino, if healthy, could be due for a big year, especially with Jonathan India and Bobby Witt Jr. hitting ahead of him. India and Witt went 1-for-10 against Cleveland on Opening Day. Once those guys get going, then Vinnie’s numbers could get even better.
Erceg-Harvey-Estevez Could Be As Good As HDH
The Royals’ bullpen had its moments on Thursday.
Zerpa gave up a run (and one inherited run) in 1.1 IP that initially gave the Guardians the lead. Sam Long couldn’t hold the top of the Cleveland lineup at bay, giving up three runs on two hits and a walk in the 10th inning.
However, Lucas Erceg, Hunter Harvey, and Carlos Estevez, the projected lynchpins of this bullpen, seemed to be in prime form on Opening Day.
The three right-handed relievers combined to allow no hits, no runs, and no walks while striking out two in 2.2 IP.
Here’s what Erceg and Harvey produced in the 7th and 8th innings, respectively.
Erceg produced a 105 tjStuff+ while Harvey sported a 102 tjStuff+. Even though neither pitcher generated a whiff, both pitchers raided the zone effectively with 70% and 71.4% strike rates, respectively.
Here’s what newcomer Estevez did in his Royals debut, which was good to see from a reliever who signed a multi-year deal this offseason.
Estevez had a lower strike rate at 57.1%. However, his overall tjStuff+ was 102, with his slider rating as his best pitch with a 111 mark. Even though his four-seamer only had a 98 tjStuff+, it also produced a 40% chase rate, 33.3% whiff rate, and 0.160 xwOBA contact.
Below is a clip of Estevez’s lone whiff of the day, which came against Cleveland’s Bo Naylor and resulted in a strikeout.
The bullpen may need some refinement, especially if Zerpa and Long can’t bounce back after rough Opening Day performances. However, Erceg, Harvey, and Estevez provide a strong foundation for this group, which could help the Royals’ bullpen be significantly better than in 2024.
Matt Quatraro Is Going To Use The Bench
Quatraro continued to show a trend on Opening Day that he demonstrated in his first two years as manager: he’s not afraid to use the bench.
On Thursday, all four bench players (Fermin, Maikel Garcia, Dairon Blanco, and Mark Canha) saw the field in some capacity. Fermin scored a run, Garcia produced a hit (though it should’ve been an error on Jose Ramirez), and Blanco stole a key base, though he ended up being doubled up later on a contact play gone haywire.
The only one who didn’t do anything of note was Canha, who struck out on a 100.1 MPH Clase cutter.
Quatraro has always believed in using the “entire” bench to keep guys engaged and fresh (something that Mike Matheny didn’t do as a manager during his three-year tenure). That said, Q didn’t exactly push the right buttons on Thursday.
He utilized Blanco early, which put the Royals in a predicament where Salvy was the winning run on second in the bottom of the ninth, and Canha started as the ghost runner in the 10th. He also pinch-hit MJ Melendez with Garcia, which burned a valuable baserunner off the bench early. With Adam Frazier and Garrett Hampson gone, there’s a bit less speed on the Royals’ bench, though the hitting (hopefully) will be better with Canha and Garcia/Biggio.
As is the case with any manager in baseball, Quatraro will need to tweak the right mix and rotations in 2025. That said, Q’s “Rays-esque” style of playing multiple guys to preserve the health and energy of his roster will likely continue this season, hopefully producing positive results like in 2024.
[…] Opening Day performance against the Guardians was a bit underwhelming. He allowed three runs on five hits with two walks and three strikeouts in five innings […]
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