The Steamer Projections for 2025 just dropped on Fangraphs, and that’s usually a sign that baseball “projection season” is upon us. Typically, Steamer drops their projections the earliest, with PECOTA dropping the latest. Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS comes out after Steamer, but they do it on a team-by-team basis on Fangraphs, so it takes longer to unveil.
For those unfamiliar with Steamer projections, here is what the projections consist of metrically via MLB.com.
Steamer is a system of projections developed by Jared Cross — a high school science teacher in Brooklyn — and two of his former students, Dash Davidson and Peter Rosenbloom. It is currently used by Fangraphs as its primary projection system for individual players…
Like other projection systems, Steamer uses past performance and aging trends to develop a future projection for players. It also uses pitch-tracking data to help forecast pitchers. On Fangraphs, the projections are updated daily and predict each player’s numbers over the course of the remainder of the season.
In a series of posts, I will examine a specific group of Royals players and their Steamer projections for the upcoming season. For this post, I will analyze the Royals’ starting pitchers and share three or four takeaways from that particular data set.
For more information on Steamer projections, check out their official website here.
Royals Starting Pitchers Projections for 2025
I will share the complete Google Spreadsheet once I release my relief pitchers analysis in my next post. Below are the definitions for all the acronyms in the top row.
- W-Wins
- L-Losses
- QS-Quality Starts
- ERA-Earned Run Average
- G-Games
- GS-Games Started
- IP-Innings Pitched
- HR/9-Home Runs allowed per nine innings
- K%-Strikeout rate
- BB%-Walk rate
- K-BB%-Strikeout minus walk rate
- WHIP-Walks and hits per innings pitched
- BABIP-Batting averages on balls in play
- LOB%-Strand rate
- GB%-Groundball rate
- FIP-Field Independent Pitching
- WAR-Wins Above Replacement
- ADP-Average Draft Position
I focused on K% and BB% over K/9 and BB/9 because the research shows that percentage indicators are more accurate than per/9 when evaluating starting pitchers.
I also included ADP, which is primarily a fantasy baseball-related metric. The higher the ADP, the better the pitcher’s reputation in the fantasy baseball community. Thus, ADP gives an idea of which Royals pitchers are highly thought of around the league (and the inverse).
Cole Ragans Is Still an Ace
Steamer is high on Ragans to produce another stellar campaign in 2025.
In 32 starts and 193 IP, Ragans will generate a 3.52 ERA, 19 QS, a 27.1% K%, an 18.1% K-BB%, a 1.24 WHIP, 3.52 FIP, and 3.8 fWAR. Thus, it’s unsurprising that Ragans has an ADP range of 47.6. According to Fangraphs Steamer fantasy rankings, he is behind Corbin Burns and Garrett Crochet but ahead of Blake Snell and Dylan Cease.
Considering his accolades in his first full year with the Royals in 2024, Ragans is projecting well for the upcoming season.
Projections tend to be on the conservative side, especially with established players. So, some Royals fans may be concerned that his 3.52 ERA is lower than his 3.14 ERA in 2024, and his 3.8 fWAR is 1.1 less than his 4.9 fWAR last season. However, when looking at other starting pitchers around the league, Ragans ranks 19th in SP ERA via Steamer, which is better than the Dodgers’ Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the Cubs’ Justin Steele, and the Twins’ Pablo Lopez.
The only concern with Ragans is the walk projections, which somewhat depresses his K-BB percentage.
His 18.1% mark is tied for 32nd with Cincinnati’s Nick Lodolo and Seattle’s Robbie Ray. This is despite his 27.1% K rate ranking 15th among starting pitchers.
Last season, Ragans’s BB% was 8.8, a 1.7% improvement from his mark with the Royals and Rangers in 2023 (10.5%). Steamer is projecting a slight bump in walk rate, but it will be worth watching in 2025 if Ragans continues to see gains in this area next season, much like a year ago.
Regardless of the walk issues, Ragans should provide more of the same to the Royals rotation in 2025. That includes a lot of strikeouts, not too many home runs allowed, and a plethora of quality outings on the mound for Kansas City.
Expect Slight Regression from Lugo
Steamer is a bit less bullish on Lugo for 2025. In 32 starts and 195 IP, Lugo is expected to produce 17 QS, a 4.16 ERA, 4.00 FIP, 1.30 WHIP, a 20.4% K%, a 13.8% K-BB%, and a 2.7 fWAR.
Last year, Lugo produced a career-best season with a 3.00 ERA, 3.25 FIP, 21.7% K%, and 15.9% K-BB% in 206.2 IP. As a result of this incredible first year in Kansas City, he finished runner-up in the AL Cy Young race.
Thus, Lugo seems to be stepping back in many categories, even with Steamer’s expected regression.
It makes sense on the surface. Lugo threw a career-high in innings last year and just finished his second season as a Major League starter. While he has a diverse pitch arsenal, he doesn’t have Ragans’ premium fastball, and his fastball velocity saw quite a regression in 2024 with the Royals.
Nonetheless, Lugo is projected to be a 2.7 fWAR starter. That is a good standard by which to evaluate him for 2025. He should be able to produce at least that mark, even with the expected regression at 35 years of age.
Can he overperform and hit that 3.0 fWAR mark or higher? That is not out of the question. If he does, Royals fans have to feel good about his outlook for the remainder of his deal (he has a player option for 2026) and the Royals’ chances in the AL Central division next year.
Kris Bubic May Be a Sleeper
Steamer projects Bubic to be a reliever in 2025, which makes sense, considering he only saw relief work after recovering from Tommy John surgery last year.
In 2024, Bubic made 27 appearances and accumulated 30.1 IP. In that sample, he posted a 2.67 ERA, a 1.95 FIP, a 32.2% K%, a 28.1% K-BB%, and 0.9 fWAR. Bubic became a key setup man for the Royals in September and the postseason, often pitching before closer Lucas Erceg.
However, despite his prowess as a reliever, Royals GM JJ Picollo mentioned that they are looking to move Bubic back to the rotation this spring. Picollo isn’t the only person who believes that Bubic’s skill set would still thrive as a starter.
Despite being tailored to Bubic as a reliever, the Steamer projections remain encouraging for 2025.
In 66 IP, Steamer projects Bubic to produce a 3.60 ERA, a 24.2% K%, a 16.6% K-BB%, a 1.25 WHIP, and 0.5 fWAR. Furthermore, his 3.60 FIP would be the second-best mark of Royals starting pitchers from that Steamer sample I compiled on Google Sheets (behind only Ragans).
As Thomas Nestico mentioned, Bubic’s pitch volume will be essential to watch in 2025. Bubic certainly has the stuff to succeed, and his PLV arsenal can easily transfer from the bullpen to the rotation.
That said, will Bubic start to fade or break down over more innings, much like he did in mediocre starting campaigns in 2021 or 2022? Or will Bubic tailor his arsenal even further and find success in 2025, much like Lugo last year?
It wouldn’t be surprising to see Bubic do the latter next season, especially with how well he’s responded to pitching coaches Brian Sweeney and Zach Bove over the past two years.
Wright, Marsh, and Cameron Could Duke It Out For Last Spot
The projections from Kyle Wright, Alec Marsh, and Noah Cameron are peculiar. They are the three Royals pitchers on the 40-man roster who likely will compete for one of the final spots in the rotation following Brady Singer’s departure to Cincinnati.
According to Steamer, Wright is expected to produce a 4.26 ERA, 4.11 FIP, and 1.7 fWAR in 35 appearances (23 starts) and 139 IP. Marsh is projected to sport a 4.50 ERA, 4.38 FIP, and 1.6 fWAR in 38 games (28 starts) and 159 IP. Lastly, Cameron, who was just added to the 40-man roster this month, is projected for a 4.05 ERA, 4.09 FIP, and 0.5 fWAR in 32 appearances (six starts) and 63 IP.
All three pitchers offer their pluses and minuses based on Steamer projections.
Wright has the least strikeout upside with a 19.3% K rate. However, he is expected to produce the best groundball rate of any Royals starting pitcher at 49.2%. Wright could not just be a success story for this Royals coaching staff but also fit into Singer’s spot perfectly, especially since he shares a similar pitching profile based on the projections and his pitch mix (though I believe that Sweeney and Bove can help him improve the quality).
Marsh has the best strikeout profile with a 21.5% K rate, and he is projected to be the most durable of the three, as evidenced by his 159 IP. Conversely, his 1.3 HR/9 is higher than Wright and Cameron’s, and his GB% is paltry at 39.1%. Only Wacha is projected to have a lower groundball rate in 2025 at 38.5%.
Cameron seems to be a nice balance between Wright and Marsh’s profiles.
Cameron is projected to have the lowest BB% of the three, with a 7.0% mark. His 13.2% K-BB% is tied with Marsh and higher than Wright’s (11.5% K-BB%). He is also projected to have a 41.9% GB%, which is not as good as Wright’s but is an upgrade over Marsh.
If Cameron can put it together, he could be a pitcher who could sneak into the No. 5 spot in the Royals rotation or perhaps share it with either Marsh or Wright on a matchup-by-matchup basis, something manager Matt Quatraro seems to be open to doing. Marsh has the flexibility to change roles on the fly, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Wright do the same, especially with the need to manage his innings a bit after missing 2024 due to shoulder surgery.
It’s indeterminate what Quatraro and even Picollo will do with the pitching staff this offseason. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Royals bring back Michael Lorenzen, who succeeded in his limited time in Kansas City last year. That said, based on the Steamer projections, the Royals currently have some encouraging depth pieces in the rotation with Wright, Marsh, and Cameron.
That wasn’t something that could often be said of Royals rotations in the past.
Photo Credit: Peter Aiken USA TODAY Sports
I would lean to Wright as the primary starter in the back of the rotation. He, and by extension the lineup, would benefit from the confidence that Wright IS a 20 game winner and should be above, in metrics and intangibles, most 4 th and fifth starters in the league. He could aim to be dominant the first three innings to force the opposing pitcher to pitch above his skill. Bad things happen when a lowly pitcher tries to channel Tom Weaver… The offense might be more selective knowing that Wright will keep them “in the game”. A scary thing could be him exceeding 15 wins. Totally possible if you place him against your average rear of the rotation types. A quality start is defined by 6 innings and 3 or less earned runs. You can almost expect every game he starts, against a rear of the rotation pitcher, to be a quality start. In that light, we should do well with him. Lorenzen should sign with us. The rotation will account for 90-some starts. He could/would be useful and might do very well.
I lean toward Wright too. I think he has the profile that Sweeney and Bove can work with and it wouldn’t surprise me if he has some new pitches in ’25. I like that he has that groundball-inducing ability, much like Singer, which I think will be a good change of pace from Wacha and Lugo, who likely will go before him.
I’m all about bringing Lorenzen back just because you know he can go back and forth from the rotation to the bullpen easily. I still am intrigued by Marsh. The K ability is there, but I worry about his HRs. He did better last year. Could he continue to improve in ’25? If so, he could be a nice guy to pair with Wright.
Wright is an Atlanta developed pitcher. Those guys pitch to contact on the theory that 27 ground outs in 60 to 80 pitches beats a 100 pitch Complete game shutout. I know that I have a rather simple approach to evaluating starting pitching, but the Quality Start embodies a lot of the qualities that makes door good solid pitching. To go 6 innings with 3 or less earned runs, pitcher must be both effective and efficient. He must be healthy and fit. Have an ERA under 4, issue less walks than innings pitched and (preferably) strike out at least a better per inning… I’m in my sixties, so my evaluation of good starting pitching must include the ability to go the distance. A trait that is being eroded in player development. That requires a pitcher to go through the lineup three or four times. To do that, he must command 3 or more pitches. Of our rotation, only Ragans and Wright appear capable. Wacha and Lugo are 6 inning guys, so you require relievers every game. Piching them back-to-back requires sufficient arms to support them. Ragans can go out there and pitch 8 innings in August and rest your bullpen.
More than the ability to strike out batters, I would like to see how they handle bad situations. Particularly those that happen. How they get out of hand. These days, that’s one of the few times pitchers have to pitch.
Also, we should be talking to teams with a 2b need to unload Massey. We have a need at 3b and we need to start looking (projecting) at the roster to see how much pitching we can carry. I’m leaning towards 11. The 5 starters, Marsh, Lorenzen and Cameron as “swingmen” and two “setup” guys and a closer. We go with Salvi and Felix Vermin at c. Pasquantinp @1b, the newcomer @2b. Bobby at 3b and Massey at 3b. Maikel as a super sub.LF is a question mark as we need offensive production there. Maybe Renfroe…platoon in c.f. Ysbel and Wiemer for a distinct improvement and RF could be open to competition. Waters? Maybe if he has learned to play within his limitations. Maybe we trade Massey for an rightfielder, sign Moncada for 3b and keep waters as a 3coutfield backup. Still got 2 slots. Match will be interesting. We are what??? 110 days to spring training?
Ragans definitely is the workhorse of the rotation. Lugo was consistent, but I’m curious to see how his stuff carries to 2025, especially since it was so atypical for him (same as Wacha). I believe in Wright a lot too and think his experience in Atlanta will help. Staying healthy is the key of course.
The lineup I think is far from a finished product right now. I expect a couple of moves soon, likely by Winter meetings, that will clarify the position player roster. Right now, I think everyone but Bobby, Salvy, and maybe Vinnie are on the table for a trade. They need to upgrade, but they will definitely have to be creative to do so since I’m not sure their prospect capital is at its max value right now (and they’re not trading Cags, who’s their best prospect chip).
[…] looked at Royals starting pitchers in my last post on Royals Steamer projections for the 2025 seasons. Even though there is some drop-off with the […]
I’m in agreement that Lugo-Wacha are what theyvdidvlast season. 12 to 15 win guys. Could they yield more? Maybe in a more offensive team, they get ahead early and prey on hitter desperation, but until we reliably are on the good side of the Quality Start line (4 or more runs scored per game and 4 or less runs allowed per game) this is who they are. Add to that the limited number of starts, and it forces the team to carry another 3 to 4 starters between KC and Omaha. That is not a good thing, unless they can relieve. Either way, it forces a compromise.
The India trade forces Massey to the outfield. I’m guessing left as he probably lacks the arm to make the throw to third with enough authority to compel hitters from stretching a double. Massey in left causes another jam. Someone is getting traded. I’m hoping we land Moncada at a friendly rate. Arenado could work, if Stl eats 20M of his salary over three seasons, leaving us with $45 million to pay out. That puts Maikel as our super sub and Massey on the trading block. TBH, I’d rather play Waters than Renfroe. For starters, he is much cheaper and not much worse in his present approach to hitting. Should he realize that increased contact and OBP are his ticket to MLB, he might fit the bill as a .245 to .260 toolsy hitter. Could a Massey for Cody Bellinger trade make sense to the two clubs? We really only have to grind pitchers into making mistakes. That is done with long at bats and pressure on the basepaths. Not so much stealing, but going first to third. If we can make middle of rotation starters dread a lineup full of 7 to 10 pitch at bats, we should reap wins.
[…] previously analyzing the Steamer projections for Royals starting and relief pitchers, I am transitioning to analysis of Royals position […]
[…] Steamer and PECOTA are both optimistic about Ragans’ outlook for 2025. Thus, after such a promising first full season in Kansas City, and with a sunny projection ahead of him this year, why would Ragans agree to such an extension and not try to maximize his value year after year through arbitration? […]