The Royals Get Their Leadoff Guy in India; But How Does He Fit On This Roster?

On Saturday, I wrote about the Royals-Reds trade, focusing on Brady Singer and why he was traded to the Reds for infielder Jonathan India and outfielder Joey Wiemer. I didn’t mention India much in the post, as I wanted to have separate posts on each player involved in the Friday evening deal.

Thus, in this post, my main focus will be on India, what he brings to the Royals on a hitting and defensive end, and the questions that remain with his arrival in Kansas City.

There’s no doubt that India is an exceptional talent with a lot of pedigree (he was the 5th overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft and a teammate of Singer at Florida). He also upgrades the Royals lineup in 2025, especially at the top of the batting order, an area of struggle for the Royals the past two seasons (and honestly, ever since Whit Merrifield was traded away at the Trade Deadline in 2022).

That said, Royals fans are concerned about India’s hitting profile, especially since he’s transitioning from a more homer-friendly ballpark in Cincinnati to a less-friendly one in Kauffman (though still a hitter’s ballpark, nonetheless, according to Statcast Park Factors).

In addition, what will happen to the infield with the arrival of India, especially since the former Red hasn’t played any other position at the MLB level beyond second base? Will India move to another position, either in the infield or outfield? Or will something happen to Michael Massey or Maikel Garcia to make room for India in the Royals infield?

Let’s examine India’s hitting profile, how it will fit in Kansas City, and the defensive outlook in 2025 for India and other key Royals players on the active roster.

India Gives Royals Leadoff Threat That’s Been Missing for Two Years

There’s no question that the leadoff spot has been a weak spot for this Royals lineup, not just last year but in Matt Quatraro’s two-year tenure as manager.

According to Fangraphs, the Royals had the worst wRC+ production at the leadoff spot since 2023, with a 73 wRC+. Kansas City leadoff hitters over the past two seasons have also ranked last in OBP (.286), wOBA (.279), and BB% (6.5%). Even though the Royals sported some talent in the middle of the order with Bobby Witt, Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, and Salvador Perez, the lack of production at leadoff led to inconsistency as a lineup, even in their 86-76 campaign in 2024.

From 2018 to 2022, the Royals had consistency at the leadoff spot with Whit Merrifield (who was eventually traded to Toronto at the Trade Deadline in 2022). However, since Whit was dealt, Kansas City has struggled to find the right fit at leadoff, much to their chagrin.

The leading hitters who have gotten leadoff at-bats have been Maikel Garcia and Michael Massey, especially last year. Unfortunately, neither player, though talented, seemed to run away with it, based on the data of Royals hitters who had ten or more plate appearances at leadoff over the past two seasons.

Witt, Nick Pratto, and Pham did have more leadoff plate appearances than Massey over the last two years. However, Witt seems solidified at number two in the batting order, and neither Pratto nor Pham is expected to be on the Royals active roster in 2025.

Garcia has the most plate appearances at leadoff with 789 over the 2023 and 2024 seasons. However, he only produced a 75 wRC+, .281 wOBA, and a .297 OBP in the role, making him a mediocre option for the Royals at the top of the lineup.

Massey has accumulated 76 leadoff plate appearances, which mostly came in 2024. Though Massey’s overall numbers from last year are encouraging (102 wRC+ and 14 home runs in 356 plate appearances), his production at the leadoff wasn’t that far off from Garcia.

Massey produced a 76 wRC+, .280 wOBA, and a .276 OBP as a leadoff hitter. His BB/K ratio (0.60) was significantly better than Garcia’s (0.36). Still, his free-swinging approach (52% swing rate, nearly five percent higher than the league average) may fit better at a lower spot in the order, especially in RISP situations.

Furthermore, when examining Garcia and Massey on a Process+ end, they didn’t have profiles that necessarily make sense at leadoff, especially in front of an AL MVP runner-up.

Both Garcia and Massey showcased above-average contact trends for 2024, which explains why Quatraro was willing to platoon the pair at leadoff down the stretch of the season and in the playoffs. Garcia and Massey limited strikeouts and at least put the ball in play, which couldn’t be said of Pham, who also saw time at leadoff in 2024.

Conversely, both had issues with power generation, as their power tool rates were below the league average for the entire season. Furthermore, both had problems with decision-making, though Garcia rated better in that category than Massey based on the Process+ chart data.

Now, let’s look at what India produced in terms of Process+, not just last season but also in 2023.

India’s power has had some ups and downs, especially in 2023, when he missed some time due to injury (he only played in 119 games). Even the contact tool had some issues, especially in August 2024, when it dipped below the league average.

On the other hand, India’s decision-making at the plate has been remarkably consistent and well above the league average over the past two seasons. That’s a big reason why he’s produced above-league-average Process+ trends in 2023 and 2024 with the Reds.

For context, compare India’s decision value rolling chart from last year to Massey and Garcia’s below.

Masey’s Decision Value+ peaked at 90 last year, around the 25th percentile. Garcia’s Decision Value+ season average was around 105, around the 60th percentile. However, he started the season with a Decision Value+ over 120 and saw that skill trend downward as he garnered more plate appearances.

On the other hand, India’s Decision Value+ season average was just under 120 (around the 90th percentile), and it touched 140 in the last month of the season. He only saw his Decision Value+ dip under the 75th percentile twice: in the middle of May and at the start of July.

Royals fans may not necessarily understand or “believe” how great India’s decision-making is and why it should make him the guaranteed leadoff hitter in Kansas City next year. However, let’s look at India’s production at leadoff over the past two years and compare it to Garcia and Massey via Fangraphs.

India’s wOBA is 55 points higher than Massey’s and 54 points higher than Garcia’s, and his wRC+ is 31 points higher than Massey’s and 32 points higher than Garcia’s. Furthermore, India’s OBP is .361 as a leadoff hitter, while Massey and Garcia’s are under .300.

The Royals struggled to consistently score runs in 2024 because they didn’t have a consistent threat at the leadoff spot in front of Witt.

Safe to say, that has drastically changed in Kansas City with the addition of India.

Batted Ball Profile Potential Is There For India (But Just Inconsistent)

Royals fans can’t question India’s plate discipline or ability to get on base. India’s batted-ball profile transitioning to Kauffman Stadium is more in question.

However, JJ Picollo is confident that his profile will fit the K perfectly, with doubles and possibly triples replacing home runs.

When looking at his spray chart from the past two years, it’s possible that India could benefit from Kauffman’s spacious confines, especially with his speed (India’s sprint speed ranks in the 68th percentile).

Based on his spray chart from 2023 and 2024, he hit many singles up the middle. As Craig Brown of “Into the Fountains” pointed out in his trade analysis, those base hits may not result in more doubles, as Picollo championed.

One thing that intrigues me about India’s spray chart is the base hits down the right and left field lines. Cincinnati’s Great American Ballpark is a bottom-ten park for triples, based on Statcast Park Factors. On the other hand, Kauffman is the second most triple-friendly yard in Major League Baseball (behind only Coors Field).

Over the past two years, India has only one triple. That will probably change if India produces a similar spray chart in 2025 to the one Royals fans see above, mainly because many of those hits down the line will likely turn into triples at the K.

Kauffman’s spacious grounds force outfielders to cover the gaps or hug the lines, depending on the hitter’s batted-ball profile. With India’s broad spray approach, outfielders will have to play him straight up, which opens up India to turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples if he can pull the ball down the left field line or hit the ball to the opposite field.

Royals fans’ next concern about India is how hard he hits the ball. His rolling exit velocity chart via Statcast isn’t precisely eye-popping in a positive fashion.

For his career, India’s average exit velocity on batted balls is 87.4 MPH, which is 1.1 MPH below the league average. That is consistent with what is demonstrated in the rolling average exit velocity chart above from the past four seasons.

His Power+ chart via PLV showcases a much different profile, with rough low points (between the 10th and 25th percentiles) at the beginning of the year but some firm peaks (between 75th and 90th percentiles) in the summer months.

Thus, India’s lack of “hard hits” may be overblown. He can hit the ball hard, but he struggles to do it consistently.

A correlating factor with this batted-ball inconsistency may be his swing aggression, which is surprisingly high for a hitter with as strong an OBP as India. When looking at India’s PLV hitter heatmaps from last year, he rated below average in swing aggression on pitches inside the zone, and it seemed like that had a domino effect on his heatmaps in other categories.

India’s contact tool is among the league’s best. Furthermore, he has demonstrated above-average power, especially on those pitches in the middle outside of the zone. Unfortunately, his decision-making and swing aggression in the strike zone were below average last season.

This probably explains why, as illustrated in Statcast bat tracking data, he could not consistently square the ball up.

Being aggressive is not necessarily a bad thing for a hitter. Witt and Salvy both have aggressive approaches, and they channeled that approach effectively to successful Silver Slugger campaigns a season ago.

Could Alec Zumwalt and the Royals’ hitting coach team help India do something similar in Kansas City in 2025?

If so, India could break out and possibly produce an All-Star season next year, especially with his excellent contact and out-of-zone decision-making skills.

He needs to improve his in-zone decision-making, as improvement in that area could lead to better squared-up rates and, thus, more productive contact.

India Showed Progress Defensively in 2024; Can Royals Help Him Even More?

India’s defense at the keystone position has long been criticized, which is understandable based on the fielding metrics.

According to Fangraphs, India has accumulated a -31 DRS, a -7.3 UZR, a -23 OAA, and a -16 FRV in four seasons at second base at the Major League level. No matter how one spins it, those numbers do not offer many positives about India’s defensive ability.

That said, India started to show some positive trends last season, especially in the Statcast fielding metrics.

Last season, India produced a +1 OAA and +1 FRV in 1,137 innings played. That significantly improved from his -7 OAA and -5 FRV in 893 innings in 2023.

When looking at the Statcast run-value chart data, it did seem like India got better on plays where he started closer to second base compared to seasons past.

Here’s a look at his chart from last year and one that combined plays from 2021 to 2023.

As Royals fans can see from last year’s chart, on those plays where he started closer up the middle, he was in the red, which is a sign of positive defensive play. In the 2021 to 2023 chart, that area is dark blue, a sign of poor defense.

The OAA details of those two charts seem to confirm the color-coded trends.

2024
2021-2023

India produced a +4 OAA in plays when he was shaded toward the 2B bag in 2024. From 2021-2023, his OAA was -15. Thus, in one season, India was 19 OAA better in that area of the field, which is a sign that India may have turned a corner defensively last year.

Another sign of optimism is that India will join an organization known for turning around the defense of infielders.

Infield coach Jose Alguacil helped turn Witt from a black hole at shortstop in 2022 to a Gold Glove candidate in 2023 and a Gold Glove winner in 2024. He also had similar success with Garcia, who barely played third base in the Minors, and Massey, who succeeded despite back injury issues a season ago.

India may not become a Gold Glover, but I think he will benefit from Alguacil’s coaching and approach and produce better defensive results in Kansas City than it did in Cincinnati.

So, Who Moves Around for the Royals?

Picollo hasn’t committed to anyone at second base yet. He mentioned that he has had discussions with India and Massey and that there is still a lot of offseason remaining, hinting that more transactions could be on the horizon to help clear up the active roster picture.

Based on the early discussions, Massey may be the more likely candidate to move positions, considering his youth and experience in the Royals organization (thus making him more receptive to Royals coaches and player development staff).

Massey moving to left field would be a peculiar transition because it doesn’t seem to solve an immediate need for Kansas City.

MJ Melendez is currently projected to be the Royals’ starting left fielder for 2025, but he’s a left-handed bat who primarily sits against left-handed starting pitchers. Thus, there’s no platoon advantage in having Melendez and Massey split time there. Furthermore, Massey played with a back injury issue that could stay with him over his career. It’s hard to determine if playing left field would be any easier on Massey’s back in the short and long term.

Massey could also move to third and maybe platoon with Garcia, who was much better against left-handed starting pitchers last season. However, via Savant, Massey’s arm strength ranked in the 12th percentile, while Garcia ranked in the 68th percentile. Thus, while Garcia and Massey platooning at third makes sense on a hitting end (they pretty much did it in September and the postseason), it’s a bit riskier on defense due to Massey’s lack of arm strength.

Hence, Picollo and manager Matt Quatraro have much exploring and testing to do this spring in camp in Surprise when players report, significantly if the Royals do not add any more significant roster pieces this winter.

Then again, maybe things get clearer roster-wise after the MLB Winter Meetings in December.

In turn, the India acquisition last Friday will make even more sense in the grand scheme for 2025 and beyond.

Photo Credit: AP Photo/Matt Freed

16 thoughts on “The Royals Get Their Leadoff Guy in India; But How Does He Fit On This Roster?”

    1. Absolutely, though India did hit in front of Elly De La Cruz the past two years, so he has experience hitting in front of a very dynamic player (though Elly struck out and whiffed way more than Bobby)

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