After writing about the pitchers on Friday, I wanted to examine the PECOTA projections for Royals hitters in this post. I have waited to write this post, hoping that the Royals would make a move to improve their lineup this week. The Royals lineup is the same, and free-agent hitters are starting to find their squads.
Harrison Bader, Jurickson Profar, Yoan Moncada, Randal Grichuk, and Tommy Pham, all considered Royals targets early in the offseason, have signed contracts with other squads. Regarding free agents available, Adam Duvall, Alex Verdugo, and Mark Canha are the only players who could make sense for the Royals in 2025.
JJ Picollo may have one more move left to boost the Royals before Cactus League games begin. However, I am not putting any serious money into such a transaction, so looking at the PECOTA projections for Royals hitters is even more critical.
I will only use three metrics for evaluation in this post. I already shared the definition of WARP in my previous post, but here are the other two BP-specific metrics that will be used.
- VORP: Value Over Replacement Player. The number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances. VORP scores do not consider the quality of a player’s defense.
- DRC+: Deserved Runs Created for a batter, scaled to a 100-based index. It tells us how valuable a player’s offensive contribution is by assigning appropriate credit to plate appearance outcomes and applying contextual factors like park effects and opponent quality.
Here are five Royals hitters whose PECOTA projections stand out and what they could mean for them respectively this season.
Bobby Witt, Jr.: 138 DRC+, 50.8 VORP, 4.5 WARP
Unsurprisingly, Witt is expected to be the Royals’ best hitter via most PECOTA projection metrics.
His DRC+ is 21 points higher than the next-best Royals hitter (Vinnie Pasquantino), his VORP is 22.3 points better than Salvy (who ranks second in this category), and he’s the only Royals hitter with a WARP over three (Vinnie is close with a 2.9 WARP).
Despite his gaudy projections compared to his fellow Royals hitters, he still lags behind other top MLB hitters. PECOTA’s hitting leaderboard shows that his projected WARP ranks 11th, and his DRC+ ranks 9th. It’s one thing to rank behind Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani in these categories. However, ranking behind others like Jose Ramirez, Gunnar Henderson, and Corey Seager feels inaccurate.
Craig Brown of “Inside the Fountains” wrote about the discrepancy between Witt’s performance in 2023 and 2024 and his rather “lackluster” projections for 2025 (well…lackluster for his standards).
There’s no question that Royals fans may have to temper their expectations from Witt for 2025. While he put up an incredible season, any BABIP regression will likely affect his overall line, especially batting average and OPS.
Conversely, Witt should still be a Top-5 hitter in baseball in 2025 when it’s all said and done.
Salvador Perez: 112 DRC+, 28.5 VORP, 1.5 WARP
Salvy will be turning 35 years old this season. For most players, that is typically the twilight of their career, where they may consider what to do after retirement. For Salvy, it appears to be just another season in his remarkable career.
In 2024, the Royals captain put up a 4.6 WARP as well as 27 home runs, 104 RBI, and a 130 DRC+. He also improved his batting average by 16 points and reduced his whiff rate by 2.3% from the previous season. Not only did Salvy make another appearance in the All-Star game, but he also added another Silver Slugger trophy to his mantle.
PECOTA projects some regression in 2025, but he is still expected to be one of Kansas City’s best hitters despite his age.
Salvy’s VORP is projected to be the second-best mark on the Royals squad, and his DRC+ is expected to be the third-best mark. His WARP is a bit low at 1.5, which ranks fourth. However, that is primarily due to poor defense, as PECOTA projects a -14.1 DRP, the worst mark on the Royals squad.
That said, manager Matt Quatraro was creative with utilizing Salvy in 2024. He minimized his innings behind the plate to preserve his bat, with Freddy Fermin playing more games than ever last season. As a result, Salvy saw more time at first base and designated hitter, which seemed to keep him fresher, especially at the plate.
Salvy’s catching defense will likely regress with his age and size in 2025. Conversely, Quatraro likely already has a plan for Salvy’s defensive usage this season, which should help Salvy continue to be a dependable cleanup hitter in the lineup.
Jonathan India: 111 DRC+, 23.6 VORP, 2.4 WARP
One of the blemishes on the Royals’ otherwise stellar 2024 campaign was their struggle to produce much in the leadoff spot. According to Fangraphs, their 66 wRC+ ranked worst in baseball, eight points behind the lowly Chicago White Sox.
Thus, it makes sense that Picollo and the Royals aggressively acquired India, the Reds’ leadoff hitter, even if it cost them Brady Singer.
India posted a 104 wRC+ as Cincinnati’s primary leadoff hitter, leading all Reds hitters with at least 30 or more plate appearances in that spot in the lineup (via Fangraphs). India’s wRC+ was also 38 points better than what the Royals cumulatively produced at the top of the batting order last season.
Even though many Royals fans felt that the price for India was high (primarily due to Singer’s strong 2024 season and the value of decent starting pitchers on the market), India is expected to have a strong Kansas City debut via PECOTA.
India’s WARP is projected to be the third-best mark of any Royals hitter in 2025, and his 111 DRC+ is projected to be fourth-best, behind Witt, Vinnie, and Salvy. He also is projected to produce the fourth-best VORP of Royals hitters this season and mash 13 home runs in the leadoff spot. That all will be welcome in Kansas City, especially for a team looking to return to the postseason in 2025.
Royals fans will see if trading Singer will be worth it in the end (it won’t be easy for him to pitch in the homer-friendly Great American Ballpark for home games). That said, on paper, India should provide a much-needed boost at the top of the batting order.
Michael Massey: 106 DRC+, 21.5 VORP, 1.9 WARP
The Royals’ outfield struggled on the hitting end in 2024. According to Fangraphs, their 79 wRC+ was tied with the White Sox for the second-worst mark in baseball. Only the Pittsburgh Pirates had worse production from the outfielders this season.
It was expected that the Royals would try to improve their outfield hitting via free agency or a trade. Unfortunately, despite Picollo’s best efforts, that hasn’t worked out, and it looks like Kansas City will be sporting a similar outfield composition when Cactus League games begin in February.
Fangraphs writer and ZiPS creator Dan Szymborski wasn’t exactly a fan of the move, as he wrote about on Friday.
One solution to the Royals’ infield woes in 2025 could come internally. Picollo and the Royals have discussed possibly moving India and Massey to the outfield, with left field the most likely destination. India spoke directly with the media about the move last Saturday at the Royals Rally.
Massey wasn’t at the Royals Rally, but he’s ready to move to the outfield in Spring Training. This possibility was discussed in a Jaylon Thompson article in the KC Star on Friday.
Massey’s bat certainly can play in left field, especially if he lives up to his 50th percentile PECOTA projections in 2025. He is projected to produce above-average marks in WARP, DRC+, and VORP, and he is also projected to hit 16 home runs in 2025. That is only two fewer than MJ Melendez, but Massey is projected to outperform Melendez (101 DRC+, 16.3 VORP, 101 WARP) in other BP-specific metrics.
Moving to the outfield could also provide an added benefit in preserving Massey’s health in 2025. Last year, Massey missed time due to a back issue and less activity in the outfield (compared to second base), which could help him play more games this season.
More games from Massey could mean more consistency and production overall from the Royals lineup.
Maikel Garcia: 88 DRC+, 12.6 VORP, 1.3 WARP
The biggest Royals hitting question mark going into 2025 may be Garcia.
After hitting .272 with a .681 OPS in 2023, he saw his numbers plummet in 2024. He only hit .231 with a .614 OPS last season. That may be okay at the bottom of the lineup, but it’s less than ideal for a hitter who saw most of his at-bats at leadoff.
Thankfully, Garcia won’t have the pressure of hitting at leadoff anymore, as India is expected to take most of the at-bats at leadoff in 2025.
Surprisingly, Garcia’s performance in 2024 wasn’t all that far off from 2023 via the BP-specific metrics. His DRC+ of 81 last year was only three points lower than his 2023 mark. Furthermore, his K% in 2024 was 5.8% lower than his 2023 rate, which shows that Garcia did a better job of making contact at the plate last season.
Unfortunately, Garcia saw a significant regression in BABIP last season. After posting a .344 BABIP in 2023, it fell to .268 in 2024. The batted-ball metrics from last year were identical to what he did two seasons ago. Thus, there could be some positive regression this season. At the same time, Garcia’s BABIP struggles could also be credited to teams having him better scouted regarding defensive positioning.
Garcia produced consistent results over the past two seasons based on his batted spray heatmaps via Savant. That would make Garcia pretty easy for opposing teams to scout defensively and could explain why fewer balls found holes last season compared to 2023.
Something may have to change batted-ball-wise for Garcia to bounce back in 2025. At the same time, PECOTA is projecting his DRC+ to improve by seven points and to produce a 0.2-point better WARP in 2025.
That’s not bad for his 50th-percentile PECOTA projections. Garcia could be a hitter at the bottom of the lineup who could provide some surprising production, thus making the Royals lineup better this season.
Furthermore, a strong-hitting Garcia could help him justify regular playing time at third base in the future, especially since his defense is much more efficient at the hot corner and right side of the infield via Savant.
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