In stress-inducing fashion, the Kansas City Royals swept their AL Wild Card Series against the Baltimore Orioles in Camden Yards on Tuesday and Wednesday. The Royals captured two pitching duels in a row, winning 1-0 in Game 1 and 2-1 in Game 2.
Lucas Erceg, whom the Royals acquired at the Trade Deadline from Oakland, closed out both games sensationally, akin to what Royals fans remembered from Greg Holland and Wade Davis back in 2014 and 2015.
With their Wild Card victory over the Orioles (extending their dominance over Baltimore in the postseason), Kansas City advances to the American League Division Series, where it will face the New York Yankees, the top seed in the American League with 94 wins. The ALDS kicks off on Saturday evening in the Bronx, with games one and two in New York at Yankee Stadium before moving to Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City for game three.
The Yankees are a more formidable opponent for the Royals than the Cleveland Guardians, who also got a bye from the Wild Card round. After all, the Royals went 2-5 against New York in the regular season, compared to 8-5 against Cleveland.
However, this Royals-Yankees series may be one of the most intriguing matchups in the Division Series round, including the American League and the National League.
Let’s examine three critical storylines in this Royals-Yankees series and why they make it exciting from a Royals fan perspective as well as at the national level.
Judge and Witt, MVP Candidates, Face Off
One of the primary stories widely discussed in this series is the matchup between Bobby Witt, Jr., and Aaron Judge, two of the leading MVP candidates in the American League.
Judge holds the lead for the season over Witt, based solely on the numbers.
According to Fangraphs, Judge has a 218 wRC+ and 11.2 fWAR, while Witt has a 168 wRC+ and 10.4 fWAR. Those individual stat lines are insane at the surface level, especially since Witt’s fWAR is the best single season mark in Royals history.
Nonetheless, Judge does edge out Witt in those Fangraphs categories.
Regarding Process+, Judge’s rolling chart is a sight to behold, especially after a “cold” start for his standards. Conversely, while Witt doesn’t touch the peaks of Judge’s data, the Royals shortstop was more consistent throughout the year, based on his Process+ rolling chart.
Both hitters were sensational in the power department this season. However, Judge tended to be a better hitter in terms of his swing decisions, while Witt was much better at making contact than Judge.
The fact that Witt had to carry this lineup at times singlehandedly, especially without Vinnie Pasquantino in the lineup in September, should help his MVP candidacy (Judge benefitted from Juan Soto, an MVP candidate himself, hitting in front of him). However, the sheer ridiculousness of Judge’s hitting numbers will likely give Judge the nod in the MVP race with the BBWAA (Baseball Writers Association of America).
That said, Witt led the Royals in an upset victory in the Wild Card over the Orioles, as he outplayed Baltimore shortstop Gunnar Henderson, who started over Witt in the All-Star Game this season (that likely won’t happen again). Furthermore, his incredible defensive and baserunning ability could sway voters, especially those who value a player who can impact a team beyond the bat.
Even though postseason performance is not supposedly factored in the MVP vote, Witt has already made history in the postseason, and he could make more in a massive series against the heavily favored Yankees.
Bob Costas and Ron Darling, who will call the Royals-Yankees series on TBS, will frequently discuss Judge and Witt’s value to their respective teams. That banter will only fuel heated discussion among fans from both teams, as they both have rightful arguments for why their franchise player deserves the AL MVP honor in 2024.
Whoever has the more productive series will make a significant impact on BBWA voters before awards season and help their respective team advance to the ALCS.
I think the latter will be the most important with fanbases at the end of the day.
Can the Royals’ Pitching Hold Up Against the Yankees?
Undoubtedly, the Royals can thank their pitching staff for the AL Wild Card series win in Baltimore.
Not only did starters Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo and the Royals bullpen limit a potent Orioles offense to one run in two games, but they also silenced this lineup’s best hitters tremendously. Look below at the performance of Baltimore’s 1-6 hitters in the AL Wild Card round.
Michael Wacha, who had a 3.35 ERA in 29 starts and 166.2 IP, will likely start in game one against the Yankees’ Gerrit Cole. He didn’t have to pitch against Baltimore, but he should help boost Ragans and Lugo in the rotation in this best-of-five-game series against the Yankees.
The Bronx Bombers went 5-2 against the Royals in 2024 and outscored them 42-24. That 18-run differential was the Royals’ worst mark against any opponent this season. However, the Yankees didn’t face Wacha this year and only faced Ragans once.
In the one start Ragans had against the Yankees (in Yankee Stadium on September 11th), he went six innings, struck out seven, and only allowed two runs on three walks and three walks. The Royals lost in extra innings simply because Kansas City struggled to provide run support (a common theme in September).
Lugo made two starts against New York this year and has performed incredibly well. In 14 IP, he has a 2.57 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. He also has struck out 14 Yankees while only walking one, an insane K/BB ratio. His numbers were mainly boosted in his most recent start against the Yankees, a Royals 5-0 win on September 10th.
The Yankees will have a tough challenge in the ALDS with Wacha, Ragans, and Lugo, who are expected to start games one through three. Furthermore, New York will not benefit from facing Brady Singer as a starter.
Singer has struggled against New York this year as he posted a 7.59 ERA in 1.50 WHIP in 10.2 IP against the Yankees in 2024. Even though Singer will be in the bullpen for the ALDS, it’s unlikely that he will see a lot of action, especially at Yankees Stadium in the first two games.
Speaking of the bullpen, the Royals have improved dramatically since they last faced the Yankees in mid-September. Erceg, Kris Bubic, John Schreiber, Angel Zerpa, and Sam Long locked down things in high-leverage situations in Baltimore.
Furthermore, the Yankees won’t benefit from facing James McArthur in the ALDS, as he was shut down at the end of the season due to an elbow strain. McArthur posted a 36.00 ERA in two appearances against the Yankees this season.
The Bronx Bombers have posted impressive numbers against the Royals pitching staff in seven games this season.
On the other hand, the Royals pitching staff is trending in the right direction this postseason. They could also surprise a group of Yankees bats that have had much time off, as New York hasn’t played since the season concluded last Sunday.
Renewing the Royals-Yankees Rivalry
In the 1970s and 1980s, the rivalry between the Royals and Yankees was one of the fiercest in the American League and perhaps all of baseball. There is plenty of video evidence of highly competitive Royals and Yankees games that were not only entertaining but also had a lot on the line.
The George Brett-Graig Nettles fight is only the tip of the iceberg of the Yankees-Royals rivalry.
The Pine Tar Game, Chris Chambliss’s walk-off HR, and Brett’s game three homer in the 1980 ALCS in Yankee Stadium (which propelled the Royals to their first World Series) are also memorable moments that are burned deep into the memory banks of older Royals fans.
Even though Royals fans have disliked the Yankees significantly since 1990, the rivalry hasn’t been the same.
The Yankees have continued to be a model and winning franchise (despite George Costanza’s best efforts to do the opposite). The Royals have been one of the worst clubs in baseball, sans that run from 2013-2017 and this magical season in 2024.
That’s a primary reason I wrote about the Royals-Yankees rivalry not being as important to younger Royals fans, as they weren’t alive to witness those monumental postseason contests with so much on the line. The Yankees are unlikable but simply as unlikable as other widely hated clubs like the Red Sox, Dodgers, Cardinals, and Astros.
This time, in the ALDS, the Yankees and Royals are playing for something significant:
A chance to make the ALCS and add another AL Pennant and World Series to their trophy case.
That could provide some entertaining baseball over the next week and perhaps the start of a new “Royals-Yankees” rivalry that could last for many seasons. Yankees-Royals could be the new Yankees-Astros or Dodgers-Padres.
Having two of baseball’s biggest stars for a long time with their respective clubs will only help fuel a possible reboot of the Yankees-Royals rivalry.
Let’s hope Kansas City can win round one of this Yankees-Royals Rivalry 2.0.
Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images
The MVP is not about who is the best hitter, but the most valuable player. Between Judge and Witt, Witt gets the nod. Judge is a corner outfielder who is protected fore and aft. Witt plays the most athletic position in the lineup and hits with some protection if Pasquantino is in the lineup. Judge has excellent power, but that’s expected for a corner OF… Witt plays a position where .250+ and 10+ HR will keep you in the lineup. Witt fields, hits, runs and throws in the upper ranges for any position. If I’m a GM, who is most valuable, a corner OF or a middle infielder who can hit and play like Cal Ripken and Chipper Jones rolled into one?
For me, the choice is clear. I know I have bitched in the past about moving Maikel to 2b. That is where his bat plays, and Maikel seems more durable than Massey. Massey has power to play 3b, but we already seem to have a 3b prospect coming up. So, if a team has to be strong up the middle to be successful, I would venture that Witt gets the MVP and Judge the Silver Slugger.
I totally agree with you. And there are times when the voters recognize that (Rollins over Pujols in 2007 was one primary example). However, I do feel like a majority of BBWAA voters value offense and think that Bobby will get dinged simply because Judge’s offensive numbers are so crazy high. I do think that it will be a close vote, and I think it would be awesome if Bobby can earn the first of many MVP awards this season. As said, while postseason performance shouldn’t factor in, I think subconsciously, the Royals beating the Yankees in the ALDS could have a huge effect.
[…] in game one of the American League Division Series at 5:08 p.m. this afternoon in the Bronx. The Yankees have won five of seven against the Royals this season, but in their most recent September series, Kansas City beat the Yankees 5-0 in game two and lost […]