The Royals made positive ground in the Nation’s Capital this week in their second-to-last series of the 2024 season.
Kansas City completed a sweep of the Nationals by the score of 7-4, the most runs the Royals have scored in a game since Friday the 13th against the Pirates in Pittsburgh. This recent series was a nice bounce back for a Royals team reeling after losing seven straight before they arrived in Washington, DC.
The Royals’ win today has dropped their magic number to two.
The Marlins and Twins are still playing at the time of this posting, and thankfully for Kansas City fans, the Marlins are winning 4-0 in the top of the 5th inning. A Marlins win would drop the Royals’ magic number to one on Friday.
After things looked so bleak just a few days ago, the Royals are on the verge of completing one of the most remarkable turnarounds in baseball in 2024 (and in Royals history).
Veteran Bats Lead the Charge in DC
In my post over the weekend, I lamented the Royals’ strategy of relying more on newly acquired veteran bats after Vinnie Pasquantino’s injury. I felt that the Royals’ acquisitions of Yuli Gurriel, Tommy Pham, and Robbie Grossman and the continued at-bats given to Adam Frazier, Hunter Renfroe, and Garrett Hampson were counter-intuitive.
First, September’s reliance on veterans stunted the development of many young Royals position players in the system.
It’s possible that Drew Waters, Nelson Velazquez, Nick Pratto, and Nick Loftin could be long-term options in Kansas City beyond this season. However, how will they get that development playing in Omaha? The answer to that is likely not.
Second, I felt that going outside the organization to boost the lineup with Vinnie out messed with this club’s vibes.
In April and May, the Royals seemed to be gelling as a group led by their young star (Bobby Witt, Jr.) and youthful energy. After all, “The Boys Are Playing Some Ball” became their catchphrase, not “Old Men Playing Some Baseball.”
With older veterans getting more at-bats in September, it felt like those early-season vibes vanished, and thus, the wins.
Nonetheless, manager Matt Quatraro and GM JJ Picollo stayed the course. They decided to lean in with their veteran group, adamant that their “postseason experience” would be fruitful in this crucial stretch of the 2024 season.
Thankfully, those veterans delivered.
In game two of the series, Grossman had a key hit in the sixth inning, driving in a couple of runs that helped the Royals win two in a row.
Today, Renfroe, who had been in a deep slump in September, hit his 14th home run of the season to tie the game in the top of the second (after the Royals gave up an unearned run in the bottom of the first due to a Maikel Garcia error).
Furthermore, Frazier, who came into the game with an OPS under .600, hit a clutch single in the top of the ninth against Nationals closer Kyle Finnegan, which plated two runs and gave the Royals bullpen a lead and some breathing room for the bottom of the ninth.
Frazier and Grossman haven’t had impressive tenures in Kansas City.
Frazier’s -0.6 fWAR is the worst fWAR of any Royals player, with ten or more plate appearances this year. Grossman isn’t much better, with a -0.2 fWAR in 14 games and 32 plate appearances. Conversely, they have at least shown solid decision-making at the plate and decent contact skills, based on their PLV Process+ rolling charts this season.
Pham and Renfroe have also had their share of struggles, though they have had stretches this season, boosting the Royals lineup at the right time. Renfroe had a 1.079 OPS in June and a .870 OPS in July. Furthermore, seven of his 14 total home runs came in those two months.
As for Pham, he got off to a hot start when he arrived in Kansas City, a primary reason why Quatraro has kept him in the leadoff spot this month. Today, he hit a key single that gave the Royals the lead in the third inning.
Regarding their Process+ rolling charts, both hitters have been experiencing a downward trend. That said, they have shown more positive progress over the year than Frazier and Grossman, making them dangerous hitters for the Atlanta series and the postseason (if the Royals can clinch).
Quatraro and Picollo told Royals fans “to trust the experience” of the hitters on the active roster after Sunday’s back-breaking loss to the Giants, which ended an 0-6 homestand.
At least in Washington, they were proved to be correct.
Playoff-Caliber Bullpen?
In a recent post, I discussed how the Royals bullpen seemed to be coming together at the right time. Of course, on Twitter, many pessimistic Royals fans were like, “What games are you watching, bro?”
The data, though, backs up my point that the Royals bullpen may be a strength of this squad now (which couldn’t be said back in June and July). According to Fangraphs, in the last 14 days, the Royals bullpen ranks third in bullpen fWAR and first in FIP.
Below is a look at how Royals relievers have fared individually over the past two weeks via Fangraphs.
Lucas Erceg has been lights out with two saves and a 0.81 FIP. However, Angel Zerpa and Daniel Lynch IV had recently returned from Omaha to become two of the most dependable relievers in this Royals bullpen with 0.76 and 1.44 FIP marks, respectively.
Lynch’s numbers have been particularly ridiculous, especially since it looked like his future in Kansas City at the time of his demotion earlier this season appeared done. Since his call-up, Lynch has performed well to help turn around this much-maligned bullpen group and set himself up to be a vital member of the Royals bullpen in 2025, along with Erceg and Kris Bubic.
A lot of buzz is centering on the Detroit Tigers’ bullpen, and rightfully so, especially since they were such an elite group in 2024.
That said, baseball fans, Royals fans especially, shouldn’t sleep on the potential of this Kansas City bullpen in the postseason. They are fresher and have demonstrated they are just as effective recently as Detroit (with more strikeout potential to boot).
Can the Royals Rise to the Occasion in Atlanta?
It will not be an easy final series of the season for the Royals.
The Braves are 86-71 and looking to gain some ground on the New York Mets in the NL Wild Card race. The Mets are 87-70 and have a one-game advantage over Atlanta in the Wild Card. The Mets and Braves started a series this week, but Hurricane Helene has likely postponed this series until the following Monday.
Thankfully for the Royals, Atlanta will not pitch Max Fried and Chris Sale in this upcoming series. It appears that Atlanta will pitch Fried on Friday but save Sale for a possible Wild Card elimination makeup game with the Mets.
The road appears a little rosier for the Royals now than it did 24 hours ago when it seemed like a real possibility that Kansas City would have to face two Cy Young-caliber lefties this weekend.
Nonetheless, the Royals must take care of business and win one or two games against the Braves to secure their spot in the postseason.
The Twins or Tigers could lose this weekend, making the path more manageable for the Royals. The latter seems unlikely, with Detroit one of the hottest teams in baseball at this time and playing the worst team in baseball as well (though the White Sox are coming off sweeping the Los Angeles Angels in their most recent series).
The Twins appear to be the more likely option to give away their postseason spot to Kansas City or Detroit, especially considering their struggles in September.
Then again, though, this Minnesota team has proven playoff veterans like Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton on the roster, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see them step up in a crucial series against Baltimore this weekend. Furthermore, the Orioles aren’t exactly a team trending in the right direction, especially with them losing 10-0 to the Yankees on Thursday to give the Bronx Bombers the division.
There are options for the Royals to get in with a subpar series against Atlanta this weekend.
However, the Royals are better off sealing their postseason fate by winning, not worrying about another team losing.
They did that this week in Washington, DC, by sweeping an inferior Nationals team.
The Braves aren’t of the same caliber as the Nationals. However, this Royals team can beat good teams.
This season, they have series sweeps of the Houston Astros and Cleveland Guardians, two playoff teams. They have a 7-6 record against the Tigers. Their +93 run differential is better than every AL Team but the Yankees. Furthermore, their expected W-L is 89-70 based on that differential.
The Royals believed in themselves in Washington.
They need to believe in themselves in Atlanta…
And Royals fans need to believe in them as well.
Photo Credit: Geoff Burke | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters
Japanese baseball have a term… “Wa”. Loosely defined as harmony. Bringing in a sizeable contingent of outsiders can have a disturbing effect on young players with an insecure grasp on a roster spot, let alone a starting one. But, I get it. We are too close to sit on a pat hand. I don’t care for Pham, and I think that if Drew Waters would back off the power a smidge he might get a couple dozen additional hits with little reduction in his extrabase numbers.
Regardless of what happens, we should already be sizing up potential adversaries and putting together a game plan. Short series are much like single elimination tournament. In a five game series you only see a pitcher at his best once. If on a losing track, opener starter will come out on three day’s rest. So, you play your lineup and pitching staff as it all rides on game one. Losing G1 puts even more pressure on the starter of the losing team and will impact his approach. G3 or fourth day of a 5-game series would usually see #3 starter and #4 is held back in case G4 is started by a #1 who needs help before the 6th inning. Particularly if #offers a change I’m velocity and pitch selection. We should already be war-gaming their pitching.
I’m a big fan of the four run rule. A quality start is 3 earned runs or less in six or more innings. If your offense scores 4 or more runs, they had a good game. Likewise, if the pitching allows 4 or less earned runs, they had a good game. Unearned runs are charged against offensive output. We don’t have an overpowering lineup. Pitching is ahead of them. But the players are versatile, field well and allow for a broad variety of lineups.
I expect Detroit to lose a couple. The more they win, the better the odds look for a loss.
I think that definitely was the case. We definitely have seen some regression from players on the roster after Pham, Grossman, and Yuli came aboard. But as you said, I applaud the Royals for not just staying pat. That strategy didn’t benefit the Twins, who are now officially eliminated.
I agree with that four run rule, especially for this group that has struggled recently to generate runs. If the Royals are getting four runs in a game or more, you have to feel good about their odds in postseason matchups. The improvement of the bullpen this month makes me feel better about this group in the postseason, even if the lineup may be what it is at this point.
Detroit is interesting. We have seen a lot of teams get on a hot streak but eventually hit a wall once postseason starts. Detroit’s pitching is nails but one could argue that their offense is not much better, perhaps a bit worse than KC.