The Royals will begin the second game of their series with the Nationals in an hour. It will be another important game in the most important five-game stretch of the 2024 season.
Kansas City got a huge win in extra innings on Tuesday, beating Washington 1-0. The win snapped a 7-game losing streak that included a winless final homestand of the season at Kauffman Stadium.
The Royals bats continued to struggle on Tuesday, as they left nine runners on base against a lowly Nationals team. However, Cole Ragans threw six innings of shutout ball. The bullpen, led by Kris Bubic, Sam Long, Angel Zerpa, and closer Lucas Erceg, locked the Nationals down in the later innings. Lastly, the Royals mustered enough offense to eek out the victory.
With five games remaining, let’s look at three important questions Royals fans are asking right now that need to be answered over the next five games.
When Will the Royals Snap Out of Their Hitting Funk?
There has been no worse offense in baseball over the past 14 days.
According to Fangraphs, the Royals rank last in baseball in wRC+ with a 67 mark over the past two weeks. Over the past 14 days, only four hitters have posted wRC+ marks over 100: Bobby Witt, Jr. (187), Kyle Isbel (147), Yuli Gurriel (112), and MJ Melendez (104). Adam Frazier is barely outside that threshold with a 90 wRC+.
The Royals have seen some key hitters struggle over the past two weeks. Salvy has a 60 wRC+. Michael Massey has a 62 wRC+. Maikel Garcia has a 38 wRC+ and Tommy Pham has a wRC+ of 29. All four of those hitters are in the lineup tonight, despite the Royals facing a left-handed starting pitcher in DJ Herz.
I don’t know when and if the Royals will snap out of their hitting funk in the next five games but it won’t be a cake walk.
Herz has a 4.30 ERA, but he has accumulated a 1.6 fWAR, sports a 11.08 K/9, and has a 3.12 K/BB ratio for the year. He’ll be a much tougher challenge tonight than Patrick Corbin on Thursday, who has a 5.58 ERA. Thus, it makes sense why manager Matt Quatraro is going with his best bats in the lineup tonight and not doing his normal platooning (which he did last night).
If the Royals are going to get hot again with the bats, it seems like they will need their key ones like Salvy, Masey, Maikel, and Pham to do so.
Can the Royals Hold Off the Twins?
The Tigers have been the hottest team in baseball and it seems like they are solidifying their postseason spot with each and every game (which feels like a win).
Detroit has an 86.9% chance of making the postseason. Thus, it seems likely that the Tigers will be playing in the postseason, especially with a final series remaining with the Chicago White Sox, who are on the verge of losing the most games in a single season (they have already tied the 120-loss mark set by the 1962 Mets).
Thus, the attention of Royals fans should focus on the Twins, who are now two games back in the Wild Card race after losing 4-1 to the Miami Marlins at home. The Mariners are two games back as well and are playing well at the right time. However, they have less room for error, and Fangraphs doesn’t think too highly of their playoff chances (5.1%).
The Twins have better odds than the Mariners, but they appear to be on the outside-looking-in at this point. Minnesota’s odds are only 26.1%, a far cry from where they were at the beginning of the month when the percentage was in the 90s.
Minnesota’s offense has also cratered, as their 76 wRC+ ranks 27th in baseball over the past 14 days. Conversely, while the Royals pitching ranks 5th in fWAR over the past two weeks, the Twins staff ranks 23rd. At least the Royals are succeeding with their starting pitching and bullpen. Unfortunately, the same can’t be said for the Twins.
If the Royals want to hold of Minnesota for that last playoff spot, then Kansas City needs to continue hold up on the pitching end over the next five games.
Will the Storm in the South Affect the Royals’ Draw in Atlanta?
Originally, it seemed like the Royals were in the driver’s seat for the Atlanta series this weekend.
The Braves were expected to pitch Max Fried and Chris Sale against the Mets this week with a NL Wild Card spot on the line. However, the Tropical Storm in Georgia has delayed the Mets-Braves series, and it seems likely that they won’t finish the series in time before the Royals weekend slate.
Now, Atlanta is put in a dilemma: Do they pitch Fried and Sale against the Royals and ensure that they are in good playoff shape in time for their possible Monday doubleheader against the Mets? Or do they save Sale and Fried for the doubleheader and risk their lesser arms against Kansas City?
That makes winning, and perhaps sweeping, this Nationals series so important for the Royals. Kansas City has struggled against power lefty starting pitchers recently. We saw that against Detroit with Tarik Skubal and San Francisco with Blake Snell.
Let’s hope the Royals not only take care of business against Washington but luck out and see Atlanta push either Fried or Sale (or both) to Monday against New York (which is possible since tiebreakers are so important in the current playoff format).
Photo Credit: AP Photo/Charlie Riedel